glory

Shapiro in 2016: “In some ways they’re just another form of a player option which I think are ridiculous. You’ll never see us do a player option.” Granted, he's given out a player option since then to Berrios, but that contract was structured for the options to be in years 6 and 7 of the deal, so they locked up 4 of his FA years. The market has changed since 2016, so maybe that combined with what looks like a one year window at best (unless Roki saves us) makes him change his thinking, but giving a 2-3 WAR 1B/DH $30M a year with the ability to opt out after one year seems like the least Shapiro/Atkins thing ever. That's even factoring the loss of a draft pick, which in 2025 will be high.

Wow I was sure that Alonso would stay with the Mets, but if it's true that the Mets have moved on, then it's hard to see a fit for Pete. The Jays might be able to swoop in here. Although if Pete wants a multiple opt out short term deal like all Boras clients want, then not sure if Shapiro goes there.

This all sounds like nonsense from the Mets and Boras both trying to use the media to create leverage against each other.

Reality is, no one except Sasaki knows anything. MLB winters are so boring that content is hard to come by. Combine that with social media and the quest for engagement, and we are going to see a lot of BS floating around. Better to just wait for Passan to report it, even though waiting sucks. So far the Jays have not been announced as being out, and they haven’t used their international money yet, so for those who are dreaming, you still can.

I have tried, but I can't think of one logical reason why Sasaki would choose the Jays over the Dodgers or Padres, so I'm not getting my hopes up. It's just odd that of the 3 teams left, 2 are in California with strong chances to compete for a title and the other is in Canada coming off a last place finish. Roki would have to really love the org, the city/country, or both.

Yeah this seems like way more of an accomplishment for Shatkins than their other pursuits. Sasaki has no reason to keep the Jays as a finalist as this only involves international pool money so there’s no such thing as using other teams for leverage. The Jays impressed him somehow. I doubt they impressed him enough to not sign with the Dodgers but whatever. Unfortunately this will just add to the “Jays always the bridesmaid” internet narrative but in this case it’s not deserved. To be as bad as they’ve been with pitching development the last decade and still impress a pitcher who (supposedly) cares about a team’s ability to develop talent is pretty impressive.

The one positive here is that Sasaki doesn't need to keep teams in the hunt for leverage. It's international bonus money. The difference in money is going to be irrelevant. So the Jays must have impressed him at least a little bit to be a finalist. I know fans rag on the Jays for coming close on top FAs but the fact that they keep getting to this point is at least more fun (if not gut wrenching depending on what your expectations are) than what we've been accustomed to in previous years. With that said, if he doesn't choose Toronto then I hope he goes to the Padres, but I think we all know what the end result is going to be.

It’s nice to be in the conversation, but yeah this ain’t happening.

Yeah I don’t think Shapiro is going to give out a short team, multiple opt out contract, but if he does, then I think Bregman is the one to target with that. Assuming he decides to go that route. A one trick pony like Santander getting opt outs is a bad idea. Bregman at least has 4 WAR potential so if you get that for one year and he leaves, then you can probably live with that. A short term deal, even if Bregman doesn’t opt out in that scenario, mitigates a lot of the decline risk as well.

It depends on what type of short term deals they are asking for. If it's a "Boras special" where it's like a 3 year deal with multiple opt outs, then I doubt the Jays would have interest there. Shapiro was pretty vocal years ago about hating player options, and while he bent and gave one to Berrios, I don't think it's something he is going to do often. If it's a straight 3 year deal at a higher AAV with no opt outs, then that's something that makes sense (Santander and/or Flaherty). I don't think Santander is going to happen from the looks of it.

Someone in the Jays media recently brought up that the Jays never leak anything (the agents do), and even this Hoffman signing came out of no where. Santander's been linked to the Jays for weeks, if not longer, which seems unusual for them. Not many options aside from Tony for what the Jays need (power bat) so could be the media trying to piece two and two together. We will see if that materializes. Atkins usually doesn't spend on bats. Springer is the rare exception (and I guess Gimenez now, but that was a trade). He typically spends a lot on pitching. But yeah now that the CBT penalties have been reset, they need to spend a lot. They could always shed payroll at the deadline to get under if things go south.

They just spent $18.5M on Hoffman and Garcia when SN media like Davidi said they only had $20-25M to spend earlier in the off-season. That's not factoring Gimenez's contract which they absorbed, in addition to Sandlin's arbitration number. Unless the Jays are really, really bullish on Yariel as a SP (they don't appear to be), then I think they are going to have the highest payroll in franchise history this season because they need at least 1 bat (probably 2) and a starter, and they won't be able to do that with $10-20M left to spend. Even an innings eating average dude like Quintana is going to get about $10M or more. Maybe they plan to shop in the bargain bin for the rest of their needs, but I can't imagine a team on a tight budget is spending $33M on a reliever when they need a lot more than that.

I refuse to acknowledge that Trollosi was right about something, Robert Murray had it first. That’s my story and I’m sticking to it.

What's interesting is that Vlad took a lower than projected 2025 salary, so if by some chance they actually do agree to an extension, then the extension doesn't reflect in the CBT calculation until 2026. I mean it's only like a $1-2M savings for CBT purposes, but still a benefit when it comes to adding to the 2025 team. Vlad could have easily haggled over that amount and gone to arbitration (and probably won) but he settled for less. Whether that's a sign of an extension being possible or whether Vlad just wanted to avoid arbitration again knowing he'll get his money next year regardless is the question.

Yeah this isn’t happening. Maybe Atkins is waiting until this is resolved before he does anything else, but don’t Yu Darvish yourself here. He’s going to the Dodgers.

Wouldn’t surprise me if Kirk is extended. The catching depth within the organization is horrendous.

Arbitration numbers are slowly coming in. So far: Pop - $900k Varsho - $8.2M

Mariners have claimed Danner. They do well with relievers so wouldn't surprise me if this one ends up looking bad.

In addition to this, the latest from Shi Davidi: "To wit, they’re staying in the game on Anthony Santander, although they’re probably not the favourite to land the switch-hitting outfielder right now. They remain engaged on Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso, but are believed to be on the periphery on those fronts, and the same may hold true on Tanner Scott. The Blue Jays are also said to be actively working the trade market, which is where the centre-piece of their winter work thus far – Gimenez – came from." At this point I'm expecting the next time there is a significant Jays transaction (which will feel like a year from now by the time it happens), it will be a name no one was discussing.

There isn’t much left in free agency, especially if the Jays are having trouble attracting FAs, but this would be a pretty blah signing.

Yeah I think the farm system talk is a bit excessive. Hypothetically, if the Jays had a top 5 system in baseball, does Burnes sign here? No. He specifically wanted Arizona. Does Soto sign here? No, the Jays were not outbidding Steve Cohen. Does Teo sign here? No, he wanted to stay in LA, and realistically, the Jays probably didn't have much interest there either given that they found him expendable two years ago. The farm system is not preventing the Jays from signing players. Vlad only being around for 1 more year is probably a far bigger concern with free agents who likely don't want to spend their last few good seasons on a team with Andres Gimenez as the star player, but beyond that, it's money, years, and location. The order of those 3 things varies based on the player, but that's what it will come down to. The quality of the player also makes a difference. Burnes knew he could get money anywhere. Santander being a one dimensional player just turning 30 is far more likely to sign with the Jays due to lack of other options. Ultimately the Jays should be doing a better job with player development, and they haven't. I don't think that's the reason players are going elsewhere, though. If they extend Vlad today, with absolutely no change to their farm system quality, then I'm guessing they become at least a bit more desirable.

If he has an option left then it's a no brainer. He's a reclamation project so bring him on board, try to make whatever adjustments possible in order to maximize his bat, and see what he has. If it fails, it fails, but I legit cannot name a single catcher in the org aside from Kirk and Heineman. If there's any position they need to take these types of gambles, it's probably catcher.

Charlie Morton to the O’s on a one year deal, contract is 1/15 per Passan.