glory

Yeah I don't see a clear path for Bregman at this point. Houston always seemed like his most likely spot. Cross them off. The Yankees won't be spending that much on him. The Cubs just dumped Bellinger's contract likely to save money for a Tucker extension so I don't think they would be in. Maybe Boston? Detroit? I think whoever signs Bregman will regret it, so I hope it's not the Jays, but it's possible his market craters pretty quickly (if it hasn't already).

Arenado was never going to waive his NTC to play in Toronto, but kinda surprised he said no to the Astros. He must have only a few specific teams in mind. I think it's becoming increasingly likely that the Jays 3B next season is going to come internally (Clement, Barger, Orelvis, Vlad occasionally). Maybe they do a buy low deal with Moncada but otherwise I don't see many options. The only Gimenez type of deal (where there's an overpaid 3B that another team would be looking to dump) that I can think of is Ke'Bryan Hayes, which fits Atkins' MO (controllable, great defense, s***** offense) but I'm assuming even Atkins would draw a line on how many defense-first players he can have at a time.

I’m wondering what Teo’s market actually is at this point. The Yankees are likely out on him, and the Dodgers don’t need him. You would think that opens things up for the Jays but Atkins has spent 2 years loading up on defense and guys who don’t strike out, which Teo is basically the opposite of (and he was the first player traded post-2022 to usher in this new and exciting run prevention model they’ve had since). I’d actually be somewhat surprised if he signs with the Jays factoring all that in, but maybe Atkins realizes he has all the defense he can get and now needs to bend a bit to add power.

Next Jays pickup has to be Naylor because the Guardians might be the only team to pity Atkins enough to actually deal with him.

Obviously Bo is a better player than Torres (assuming he's healthy) but if you can get decent value for Bo in a trade, move Gimenez to SS, and then sign Torres on a short term deal for 2B, then that would be a tidy retool type of move. Largely depends on what the return for Bichette would be.

It certainly appears that way. The last big FA (top 10 FA in the class) they signed was Gausman and that was 3 years ago when Vlad/Bo had 4 years of control left and the team was coming off 91 wins. Now the only carrot they can dangle at FA's is money, but big time FA's (ex. Burnes) will be able to get money anywhere so it probably isn't that big of a difference maker given the position the Jays are in. Trades, more specifically absorbing salary that another team wants to dump, might be their best way of getting a difference making talent.

Yeah if all Teo is looking for is 3 years between $70-75m, then the Jays should be all over that. The years mitigate a lot of the decline risk, and the AAV is higher due to the lack of years, which is a fair trade off. My guess is the rumor is BS and he’s probably looking for a 4th year.

Hell the Jays spending in free agency (and trade) is the only reason the team was as good as it was.

If the Marlins are selling, then the Jays should look into Jesus Sanchez. There's swing and miss there, so Atkins would probably vomit at the thought of acquiring him, but otherwise a lot of red on the statcast page. Could be a tweak away from being good (though the Jays being able to give him that tweak might be far fetched).

Baerga's batting like .120 with rumors, but hopefully this is one of the few times he knocks one out of the park.

Unless I'm forgetting someone, the Astros don't have a RF. Guessing this puts them in the Teo/Tony market with the Jays and others.

If this happens, then Bellinger to the Yankees is likely the next step.

Their first big move this off season was as much a 2026-beyond move as it was a 2025 upgrade, as Gimenez is likely the starting SS from 2026-onwards. So far Atkins has not been operating in a way that dictates his job is on the line. Even if they end up giving Burnes $250m, it's a move that impacts future teams just as much as 2025 since Bassitt would need to be replaced after this season, and the Jays aren't exactly a pitching factory when it comes to development. I think we will know if Atkins is more "2014-15 AA" if he overpays Santander. That seems like purely a 2025 move with limited upside in future seasons. Gimenez you could at least envision being a 3 WAR SS moving forward, with potential for more if his bat is around league average. As you said I don't think either ownership or the FO wants to rebuild, but so far they haven't gone too deep the other way either. It would help if we knew what Shapiro's long term future with the club actually is. My guess is Atkins is more in danger of losing his job than Shapiro is, but hard to get a read one way or the other given what has happened so far. They haven't traded any of their top prospects (yet) or made a short term "f the future" signing. They basically made a Varsho 2.0 trade and a simple RP signing. I guess it's possible they truly believe this approach is going to work as they haven't really deviated from what they did in 2023 and 2024.

Yeah, Teo signed for 1/23.5 last season (granted, deferred AAV is lower than that), and then proceeded to have a much better season in 2024. I think it will take at least $25m AAV to sign him. That's probably why the Dodgers are balking. They don't need him that much. The Jays do. Whether Atkins would go 4/100 is anyone's guess, but if the alternative is f'n Santander on a 5-6 year deal, then give Teo whatever the hell he wants for 4 years.

I don’t think this has anything to do with Boras. X/Twitter has become a cesspool of randoms who want to troll by acting like they have sources. If they happen to guess right once then they suddenly gain credibility in the eyes of some rumor hungry baseball fans. I don’t think Boras is leaking this to randoms. If Heyman (notorious Boras boot licker) said the Jays had a $250m offer, then it would be more likely to be a Boras leak. This is just some dude throwing s*** at the wall. If he’s right, then he can make up another rumor 12 months from now that gets engagement. Rinse and repeat.

Yeah I don’t believe this at all. Wouldn’t mind if it were true, especially if it’s followed up by a Bassitt trade (bad feeling he’s going to fall off hard next season), but I think Burnes ends up in SF.

Yeah that doesn't seem like a great haul for the White Sox. Time to trade for Robert.

Yeah this is the move to make, IMO. Not a high floor but probably the highest ceiling the Jays could realistically acquire, and as you said contract is very team friendly. Just a matter of what the White Sox are looking for in return, or if he’s even available. Although if I had to put my Ross Atkins hat on, I’m going to guess he trades for someone like LaMonte Wade, given his lefty bat and offensive profile.

Honestly if the Jays are not a desirable FA destination, then moves like that are probably the way to go. Buy low on controllable “expensive” players with 4 WAR ceilings and hope they can be fixed.

Maybe they are only willing to do it for a handful of players because they don't trust Atkins to spend it otherwise. That's the only thing I can think of. After spending $50m on Vogelbach/IKF/KK/Turner/Green, I'm not sure I disagree with Rogers if that's their logic. With that said, yeah it's a pretty stupid mindset either way. Ownership is expecting Shatkins to turn this into a contender in 2025. They can't do that without a lot of money. If they somehow can't sign any of the handful of players that would cause a payroll increase, and payroll isn't going to increase because of that, then what the hell are we doing? It's not like top FA's with options are going to be flocking to the Jays. A few years ago this was a team on the rise with two emerging stars. That's not the case anymore. Spending, and spending big, is all they have left.

Trading Horwitz is a nothing burger. At best he’s a platoon 1B with moderate/average power. If he’s a 2 WAR type that’s fine but nothing worth losing sleep over. The issue is getting Gimenez, and more specifically his contract, in return. I’m sure they view his bat as being closer to league average, but that’s not worth nearly $100m. Only positive I can think of is Gimenez is far more likely to put up a 4 WAR next season than Horwitz is (or any of the internal 2B options), even if it will be driven by defense and base running, so wins added are wins added. On another team this deal might have made more sense but not on a team that has way too many offensive holes. Now if they blow their loads on Burnes then it makes the payroll situation a bit more tricky to navigate through. Maybe they move Bassitt in that scenario, or as mentioned maybe they have a Bo trade in the works. I guess I’ll wait for the end result but so far a Jimi + this trade off season wasn’t worth the 6 weeks of radio silence we experienced after the World Series ended.

Gimenez makes $10m in 2025 but has a $15m CBT hit, so not sure how much money the Jays actually have left to spend but it can't be enough to get Burnes + 2 hitters. I have no idea what the plan is here, other than having a Bo replacement in 2026.

If this is leading to a Bichette trade, then that's really the only way this makes any sense. Gimenez with a 90-100 wRC+ should be a damn valuable player at 2B, but it's not what this team needs. If he's a SS and Bo is traded to fill another hole with someone more controllable, then you could at least squint hard enough to see some direction.

Nick Mitchell is included in the deal. So it's Horwitz and Mitchell for Gimenez and Sandlin. No cash involved. Per BNS.