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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    Yeah no chance Arizona is trading Carroll. Not even for Moreno+. They want an upgrade at catcher but they have an in house option so it's not like they are desperate. That would be an amazing move for the Jays if it were possible but I can't see a scenario where it is. They are more likely to move someone like Alek Thomas, but that's a bit risky for the Jays since they lost Hernandez so replacing him with someone who may or may not hit well in 2023 might not be the best idea. If Nootbaar is available, then I think he's the guy to go after. He has a 2.9 WAR and 125 wRC+ projection for 2023 + 5 years of control + a good amount of red on his Savant page. Not sure if he's a long term CF but he might be able to play there for at least part of the season. Jansen + Pop for Nootbaar works on Trade Values, and that site is never wrong, so let's do it.
  2. glory
    Reminds me a bit of Liam Hendriks in 2015, who Gibby for some reason did not use much in high leverage spots despite great numbers. I don't even recall him pitching in the playoffs that year except for the game Dickey f***ed up in the ALCS, but maybe I'm missing some. Hopefully the M's are misjudging Swanson the same way the Jays did Hendriks.
  3. glory
    Agreed. The D-Backs make too much sense as a trade partner as they have a surplus of exactly what the Jays need, and are interested in a catcher. There is a deal there somewhere. Nootbaar from the Cardinals makes sense as well assuming he can play CF long term.
  4. glory
    I don't think they go after Nimmo. That makes the most sense considering need/fit (LHH, CF) but adding another $100m FA contract to a 30+ year old when the payroll is already tightening up doesn't seem all that likely. If they are keeping Springer in CF, then I think the Jays go hard after Conforto, but if they are moving Springer to RF, then it becomes a bit more tricky. Maybe there's a catcher for Nootbaar type of trade on the horizon.
  5. glory
    Hard to fully judge this move until we see the follow up. There's a big hole in the OF and lineup now which will obviously be filled at some point. We need to see how it's filled. Will it be a CF or someone like Conforto? Maybe there's a trade out there. The team probably has to trade a reliever at some point as well as it's getting crowded now and not enough RP's with options to make it work.
  6. glory
    My guess is Diego Castillo but either way I hope it's not just for one RP.
  7. glory
    Hernandez has been traded to the Mariners. Please don't let it be for Flexen!
  8. glory
    The team did seem like they soured on Biggio a bit last season. Wasn't playing 2B much over Merrifield/Espinal, and they seemed reluctant to try him in the OF despite Tapia being the one they were using instead. So if the team trades Biggio this winter, it wouldn't surprise me. Non tendering him is not happening though, and it shouldn't.
  9. glory
  10. glory
    Yeah I think Merrifield is starting at 2B in 2023, at least to begin the season. After that will depend on performance. He finished the year strong (119 wRC+, 0.8 WAR, 130 PA post trade) but has been trending downwards otherwise. We will see, but I don't think they start Barger anywhere in the Majors to start the season. With Chapman being a FA after 2023, hopefully Barger becomes a legit starting 3B option in 2024. I guess we can't rule out Orelvis turning things around either, but really need one of them to have a great 2023 so there's some cushion if/when Chapman leaves.
  11. glory
    Morosi posting fake rumors for clicks is somehow less annoying than him suggesting trades.
  12. glory
    Losing Rizzo to the Astros would be a gut punch for the Yankees.
  13. glory
    Atkins doesn't usually spend on (or prioritize) relievers, so I'd be somewhat surprised if the main piece coming back in a Jansen trade were a RP or two. With that said, I am mentally preparing for Jansen to the Tigers for Soto (or something like that) just so I don't get too disappointed if it happens.
  14. glory
    Montero back with the Astros for 3/$34.5m. The RP market is very expensive, and Atkins hates spending money on the bullpen. Trade route looks more likely.
  15. glory
  16. glory
    Manoah doesn't have to be extended this early, just that he's a priority in general along with Vlad. I'm less bullish on Bichette, mainly because I don't see the Jays ever moving him off SS and he's not good there, so just take the next 3 years and then hope for a Jeremy Pena situation from the farm system.
  17. glory
    I think a Vlad extension will be worked out eventually. Whether it happens this winter remains to be seen, but it seems like he wants to stay long term and at some point if Atkins wants the sustainable winning model that he and Shapiro have been preaching, then eventually they'll have to extend somebody important. Vlad and Manoah should be the priority. Jays have 3 years to develop an internal SS option, and I think that's a reasonable amount of time to get the most out of Bichette's remaining control and then letting him walk for that internal option.
  18. glory
    On any other good team, Jansen is an extension candidate right now. That's why I fear what the Jays are going to get in return for him. Only two years of control left and some injury history may hurt his value a bit. Other teams are probably salivating to get him at a cost lower than what his upside/value really is, so hopefully Atkins can hold firm and get a good deal if he is in fact the one moved.
  19. glory
    I expect the Astros to win, but I wouldn't rule out Philly just yet. Wheeler is really good and then Game 7 anything can happen.
  20. glory
    Yeah seriously, Schwarber in the Jays lineup would have been amazing.
  21. glory
    There's probably no chance that it happens as top prospect for top prospect trades are pretty rare (especially top 10 for top 10), but Moreno for Walker would be interesting. Value-wise they are probably close to equal, and both are blocked by internal options (Arenado in STL and Kirk/Jansen here). Moreno fills a huge need for the Cardinals while 3B won't be a need for the Jays until 2024, so timeline-wise it makes more sense for the Cardinals than the Jays. Given where the Jays are in their window, I'd imagine any trade involving Moreno would be for an established big leaguer and not another prospect (unless it was someone like Corbin Carroll who has already contributed at the big league level, but I don't see the D-Backs doing that).
  22. glory
    A corner OF in his 30's is not someone I'd prioritize signing long term if I were the Jays, especially with his BB:K rates. I think I'd hold on to him for 2023 since he's still a good player and maybe he rakes in his FA year, but I wouldn't go beyond that.
  23. glory
    As others have said, there is an argument to be made for all 3 of the catchers to be kept or traded. Maximize the next 2-3 years? Trade Moreno. Try to sustain contention for as long as possible? Keep the players with the most control (i.e. trade Jansen). Looking for the best return in general? Trade either Kirk or Moreno. There really isn't a "wrong" answer unless Atkins gets f***ed in a trade return, but of the 3 catchers, Jansen is the one where the likelihood of getting a return that instantly makes us say "that's it?" is much higher. No one is saying Jansen is the next great catcher in baseball, but a 2.6 WAR in less than half a season of PA's this season and a 4.5 WAR/140 wRC+ in his last 400 PA dating back to 2021 makes him a pretty valuable player even with the caveats (injury prone). On top of that, we have no idea what Moreno will eventually become and/or how long it will take for him to get there, and the next 2-3 years are essentially the team's best competitive window with this group. Not the easiest decision, but obviously, Atkins is in the driver's seat.
  24. glory
    Castellanos got $100m and then turned to s***.
  25. glory
    Agreed. I'm just skeptical that sort of deal will be out there for Jansen. We saw something like that at the deadline with Montgomery/Bader, so I guess it's possible, but the amount of contending teams having an expendable ~3 WAR SP with at least 2 years of control doesn't seem like it will be a very long list. How much would the Jays have to add to Jansen to get Pablo Lopez?
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