glory

If you think his bat is fixable, then Trent Grisham could be an option. Three years of control left, LH bat, legitimately good defensive CF, but bat was bad in 2022. Padres could probably use an upgrade at CA, and I believe they are/were considering Tatis to CF. I don't think the Cards move Nootbaar or Carlson for Jansen, and while Tyler O'Neill probably makes sense as a similar value return, the fit isn't great for the Jays (RH, not a CF). Don't think the Astros or Guardians have anyone that fits that criteria. Like I said hard to find a good deal for Jansen since only contending teams would want to trade for him, and contending teams aren't likely to trade good players with 2-3 years of control unless it's from a position of surplus.

If that is the rationale, and it's a logical one, then Kirk is the one to move because he's far more likely to get the type of return that would help the team short/long term over whatever Jansen will bring back. The reason to trade Jansen is almost entirely due to years of control. He has the least. Age is another factor, but honestly, given how unpredictable Kirk's aging curve will be due to his body type, I'm not even sure that's as big of a deal. If you can get Jansen on a team friendly extension, and then trade Kirk for a SP/CF/whatever that will significantly improve the club short and long term, then that's not a bad option at all. Really depends on what Kirk's market is right now.

O’Neill isn’t the best fit since he’s RH and isn’t a CF (or at least he hasn’t played there much), but yeah, this is the type of trade that I could see happening. Jansen isn’t desirable to non contending teams, and contenders are more likely to trade prospects (which wouldn’t interest the Jays), so getting an equivalent MLB player who plays a different position is probably the best case for Jansen. Whether you think O’Neill can come close to his 2021 numbers again is the question. Adding a hard throwing reliever in the deal like Hicks would make sense as well.

They'll have Bader in CF all season, and presumably IKF will be gone and replaced by Cabrera (or Peraza). My guess is they'll trade Torres and put DJ back at 2B. So if they bring Judge back, then I think they'll still be good. Probably closer to a WC team than running away with the East like this season though. If they lose Judge, then it's probably going to get ugly.

Yeah, the Phillies actually resemble a good team, even if their regular season record doesn't stack up (though post Girardi they were very good). The Braves roster that won the World Series in 2021 was far more egregious due to injuries and clearly overachieving middling talent (Rosario, Duvall, Soler, etc). They won the division by 6.5 games with 88 wins. The Phillies finished 3rd in the division with 87 this season. Not even a comparison, IMO.

I generally agree with you about years of control being an important factor here, but not sure the team is going to get a comparable talent to Jansen in a trade. In 2022 had a 2.6 WAR in less than half a season of games/PA's (4 WAR and 124 wRC+ combined in 2021-22 in 453 PA). He has power, draws walks, doesn't strike out much, doesn't hurt you on the bases, and is only 27. Assuming Ross Atkins is aware that you can in fact sign a young player to a team friendly extension at some point, it seems like Jansen is a guy who fits that criteria in a normal circumstance. His injury history might make him easier to sign too. I can't see a scenario where another team gives up a 4+ WAR CF or SP for him. Even if you were bullish on someone like Alek Thomas turning into that sort of player, would the D-Backs move him for 2 years of Jansen? Probably not. If they decide to move Jansen, then it would be a logical way to go (less control, older, injury history, etc), so I'd have no issues with that, but from a talent + return standpoint, I'd be afraid of what Atkins gets in return. Either way, if I had to make a prediction right now, I'd say it's 80/20 in favor of the Jays keeping all 3 and trying to make it work.

He is essentially a 0.0-0.5 WAR player when given 400-500 PA's a season and most of that is purely off base running. Awful might be harsh but either way he's not good. For the better part of the year he was below replacement level. The Jays excessively playing him even when everyone was healthy is more of an indictment on the Jays than it is on Tapia though, so I shouldn't be too hard on him. He is what he is and the Jays should have known better.

Gurriel and Castellanos were good MLB players as recently as 2021 with a track record prior to that of being good. Tapia has been awful his entire career, was awful in 2021, and predictably awful again in 2022. There's no chance any other contending team would have given Tapia as much PA's as the Jays did unless it was due to massive amounts of injury to their starting OF's. It's one thing to give playing time to someone with a track record who just inexplicably sucks for whatever reason, but it's different when it is someone who has always sucked and you know will suck again. The latter is Tapia.

I always viewed the Cardinals as a trade option with Molina retiring but didn't think they'd move another OF after trading Bader. One of the catchers for Carlson or Nootbar (assuming he can play CF long term, he only played their a bit in 2022) would make sense.

Guardians shouldn't be rewarded for not spending money/trying to field the cheapest team possible. I like the players on the team, but not the org. I'll go with Seattle.

Michael Brantley is a FA again, though will be coming off shoulder surgery. Seemed he was really close to signing with the Jays based on Hazel jumping the gun a couple of years ago. He's older now, and likely strictly a DH at this point, so that might turn the Jays off, but a LH bat like that would be ideal in this lineup if his bat doesn't slip after surgery.

Yeah I think how they handle the catching situation is going to be one of the more important decisions they make. Keeping all 3 is certainly possible, but it will involve using the DH spot more for Kirk than how they used it this season (giving starters a rest so an inferior bench option, usually Tapia, can play). They'd likely also have to use Moreno in more of a super utility role, which might be a good thing if his offense is as good as hyped. Realistically, it's the biggest position of strength in the organization and there is a surplus, so if you want to fix a glaring org weakness (ex. CF) then that's the position to subtract from. I like the idea of turning a catcher into someone like Alek Thomas, but not sure what the cost is going to be. The D-Backs would probably do Thomas for Kirk, but would they do it for Jansen+? I'm guessing no but depends on how they view things. If they do trade a catcher and decide they want to trade Jansen, then they need to do it this winter. He has two years of control left. This is the only time to maximize his value. If he's still a Jay on opening day 2023 then they might as well try to extend him. Kirk and Moreno are more controllable so no urgency there, unless you think Kirk has peaked and want to sell high, but Atkins usually doesn't operate like that on the big league level.

Gonna be interesting to see what they do. They clearly need a big bat in their lineup but also need to replace or re-sign 3/5 of their rotation (deGrom, Bassit, Walker), Diaz in the pen, and Nimmo in CF. Even Cohen is going to have a limit. Wonder which direction they go in.

Tapia making the final out on the Jays season was almost a poetic way to end 2022. I just wish he would have reached 500 plate appearances during the regular season. The Jays certainly tried to get him there.

I started watching in 91 and this was the worst I’ve seen given it was an elimination playoff game. Just brutal.

Brutal call there.

I’ll gladly take the L in this case.

I had the Rays winning this series but thankfully the Guardians swept them out of town. Cleveland took advantage of a s*** division but Bieber and McKenzie give them a chance in a short series against the Yankees. Still picking NY though.

I really hope they aren’t planning a 2 inning save for Romano. Garcia can pitch to another batter or two. Or Bass, assuming he’s alive.

Yeah losing the 1st game of a 3 game playoff series is not ideal, and I think people have been sleeping on Seattle's pitching if they thought this would be a cakewalk win for the Jays, but it's just about winning 2 games in a row at home. Very doable. I like the Gausman/Ray matchup for the Jays today. Not sure I like Game 3's matchup even with how good Stripling has been this season, but just get to Game 3 and worry about that later.

What the hell are you talking about? I was responding to the attendance numbers and agreeing with lowering the stadium seating, then gave my reasons for that. I never said baseball was dying or anything. I notice you get upset when I (not anyone else, just me) talk about the business side of baseball. I'll keep doing it just because I know you enjoy it so much. Although judging by the time stamp of when you posted this and what you posted on the game day thread at 3 in the morning, I'm guessing you were probably under the influence.

Probably a good idea. Not surprisingly attendance and quality of team seem to go hand in hand, with the usual exceptions (Rays and surprisingly the Guardians but we will see if they get a jump next season based on 2022). The better the team, the better the attendance, but MLB has a tanking problem. Teams that are bad are usually really bad and are doing so intentionally. Trying to get 40-50k in a stadium to watch the Royals, Reds, Tigers, Pirates, Marlins, A’s, etc, for 81 games a year in this economy is kind of unreasonable, and that’s going to drag the total figures down. I really don’t see a way to solve this other than to have more good teams in the league at once, but that’s hard to predict year to year. It’s also possible that in some markets baseball has just lost popularity, and we have to adjust expectations for attendance accordingly. Cleveland in particular should have had much better attendance this year even factoring the low expectations heading into the season.

I know Tapia's only in the lineup because Gurriel is hurt (although the Jays may have manipulated the DH spot to fit him in for all I know) but there is no reason for Tapia to bat anywhere except 9th in the order. Hopefully Espinal is healthy and can play 2B tomorrow with Merrifield in LF against Ray.

Schneider loves using the pen. I mean at 4-0 just let Manoah finish the inning, especially since Kelenic has been awful.

Luis Castillo + the Seattle pen is going to be tough to come back from. Have to hope Castillo is off his game too.