glory

I guess Jays fans can no longer complain about Yankee Stadium home runs anymore.

I was going to suggest Espinal and Otto Lopez for Chisholm, but Sandy works too.

I think I'd be fine with a 11-12 year deal for Vlad, even acknowledging the weight issues and possibility for some dead money towards the end. He had a 132 wRC+ at age 23 in a down year. We all know what the ceiling is. Seems like a worthwhile gamble to take. Maybe a 11/285.5m extension would work. Once you add his 2023 arb figure it comes out to 12/300, so it's a round enough number for Vlad, and it's $25-26m AAV from 25-35, so it wouldn't be like Pujols or Cabrera where you're running him out there in his late-30's/40's. I'm guessing he would sign a deal like that. Whether the Jays would offer it, I have no idea, but that's probably what it takes to get it done.

The bright spot for the Twins is that they are in the Central so they have a shot at the division by virtue of how mid the division is. Of course now there is a balanced schedule, and the Guardians are probably still better than them. Division still gives them a shot though. Not exactly sure what the Marlins are doing.

For luxury tax purposes, any Vlad extension should begin in 2024 so it doesn't impact 2023 lux tax payroll, so now that his 2023 arb figure is taken care of, maybe they will start the extension talks.

Yeah they have two players with 5-6 years of control left who already project to have as good (slightly better) a combined WAR next season as Vlad and Bo (Adley/Gunnar). They absolutely should have spent on pitching. Maybe they tried and failed (as mentioned it takes two to tango in free agency) but only adding Kyle Gibson to a core that has 3 really good players (those two + Mullins) and more position player talent on the way just seems like a huge waste. Say what you want about Atkins, but he called up Vlad/Bo in 2019, and then it was Ryu/Roark/Anderson in 2020, Springer/Semien/Ray/Matz in 2021, Gausman/Chapman in 2022, etc. He didn't waste a single season he had Vlad/Bo under team control. Now there's only 3 seasons left, but they made the "playoffs" in 2020, just missed in 2021, made it again in 2022, and project to be one of the top 5 best teams in the league at the moment for 2023. You can't accuse them of being cheap or wasting years. The Orioles better start building soon because Adley's 2022 counted as a full year of service so that service time is going to start dwindling quickly. Next year's SP market looks very good so maybe that's when they'll spend, or at least try.

That was my first thought. The org went out of their way to intentionally hand him 400+ plate appearances last season, including using in Game 2 of the WC series with a huge lead rather than someone who actually knew how to play defense. All that just to non tender him after the season and watch him sign a minor league deal somewhere else. Ultimately I am just thankful that it is the Red Sox giving him the minor league deal and not the Jays. For much of 2022 I thought the Jays might actually tender him a contract given how often they were playing him, but I guess they really just wanted a LH bat in the lineup (even if he stunk).

Yeah that's the way it's looking to me as well. Merrifield is going to start a bunch at 2B but he's also the 4th OF. A Biggio/Espinal platoon at 2B is still there if Merrifield has to play the OF due to need, injury, etc. I don't think it makes much sense to spend $5-8m on a platoon outfielder at this point. If the going rate for that type of player was a lot cheaper, then sure, but at this point I don't think the Jays are in a bad spot as is. Save some financial bullets for the deadline. Also as mentioned, Otto Lopez is an option for that last spot, and the one thing he did really well offensively in the minors is hit LHP. He doesn't have any power so upside is probably minimal, but it's also a reason why you can put him on the bench and not worry about playing time.

The Jays do need to start developing that next wave of talent, preferably around 2025 when Vlad/Bo's time might be coming to an end, but a lot can happen (good and bad) for a farm system in a year. Overall, 2022 was a down year for the system as a whole aside from a couple of bright spots (Tiedemann, Barger) so things might not look as good now. The Jays also traded a whole bunch of prospects for big league help in the past year and a half, including 3 first round picks (Groshans, Martin, Hoglund), a top 10 prospect in the game (Moreno), and a former top 100 prospect (SWR). There are still enough intriguing prospects in the system to expect better outcomes in 2023.

Yeah, now that there is no catcher surplus, an extension for Jansen makes a lot of sense.

Yeah with Bo I don't think it's about Toronto or the organization as much as wanting to get paid what he feels he's worth. He clearly disagrees with the CBA and how baseball salaries are structured for younger players, so the only way he can maximize his worth is to test free agency. I don't even blame Bo. He should try to get everything he can get. It's up to the Jays to decide whether they want to just accept the next 3 years and then look for a replacement SS after that, or trade him before free agency. If they want to be a "sustainable contender" rather than having to do a mini retool after 2025, then they probably should consider trading Bo at some point because losing both him and Vlad at the same time would be pretty difficult to recover from short term. Although I still think the Jays and Vlad will work something out at some point. For some reason I feel that has a good chance of happening.

Swanson agrees to $1.25m, and Bichette (somewhat predictably) is going to an arbitration hearing.

Jansen gets $3.5m (projected at $3.7m).

Outfield defense, along with Schneider ignoring logic/stats, also cost the Jays Game 2 of the Wild Card game. Could definitely understand why Atkins did what he did after a full season of Hernandez, Gurriel, and Tapia in the OF.

Would have been a fit for the Jays, but this seems like a more fitting place for him to sign.

I don't know anything about Jay Jackson or his stuff/velocity, but looking at the numbers, I'm surprised he hasn't gotten more of a look on a MLB team in his career. He went to Japan from 2016-18, but since he's come back in 2019, his minor league numbers have been consistently great. At age 35 I'm not expecting anything from him, but definitely a guy to root for given how long he's been on the grind.

Kyle Garlick was DFA’d by the Twins. His only redeeming quality so far seems to be hitting LHP so there might be a fit there.

Only alternative was to keep him and give him the QO. Either he stays for another year (and the Jays would have gotten bounce back JD from 2019) or he leaves and the Jays get a pick. That was the avenue to go to, but obviously the front office wanted to clear money and tank, so it was never a real possibility.

If the Rays get Merryweather, I'm going to cringe nervously.

Yeah I wouldn't put Thompson ahead of Kikuchi/White. Since he has options it's clear this was a depth move, and the Jays did need AAA SP depth to avoid Hutchison/Lawrence throwing MLB innings next season. If Thompson can get his 2021 form back, then great, but stash him in AAA until a need arises.

Ryu counts. If insurance covers some of the contract due to his injury then that doesn't have any impact on the CBT as far as I know. With the Belt signing, the Jays now have close to $65m coming off the books after this season (Chapman, Merrifield, KK, Belt, Ryu, Bass, what is left of Grichuk's deal), possibly more if they do not pick up Garcia's option (which they likely will pick up unless he's hurt/sucks in 2023). It's possible they can make improvements and be under the CBT next season, but too early to speculate on that.

Even if the arbitration salaries are lower than projections, it's still tough to see them getting under the first threshold. Trading Biggio will save them a little bit but not much. The team actually needs Merrifield at this point so I doubt he's moved. If they can find a taker for Kikuchi then that would be the best way, as his CBT hit is counted as $12m due to contract AAV and he's thoroughly replaceable as a SP, but even in the current market that seems very unlikely. I think this is the year they go over. They will probably try to sneak under in 2024 or 2025 though to avoid repeater penalties.

Wow. Wasn’t expecting the Jays to sign Belt or shoot past the luxury tax to sign him. If they still have money then another SP would be nice. So the lineup against RHP will now have 3 LHB, possibly 4 if Biggio is still on the team and playing at 2B. Roster balance certainly isn’t an issue anymore.

Between 2B and OF, I think Merrifield easily clears 500 PA next season (unless his performance falls off a cliff), so yes he would also be a factor into the available 4th OF at bats. Even without factoring payroll/CBT, it's hard to see the Jays making a significant OF add. Once you add the payroll/CBT equation into it, then it becomes more sensible to give someone like Lopez a shot and save some bullets for the trade deadline.