glory

Verlander's deal with the Mets is 2/86 with a vesting option for the 3rd year.

Goes without saying, this makes a lot of sense for the Jays.

deGrom signed a below market extension with the Mets that had a s*** load of deferred money. I think he regretted that almost instantly and wanted to make up for it here.

Based on Atkins' history and the market itself, it's going to be a FA signing, if anything. The catcher trade will depend on a lot of other factors (where Contreras goes, where Murphy is traded, etc) that are out of his control, so that might come later in the winter.

I'm sure the Rays are going to turn Eflin into a much better pitcher, but if he's getting a $13m AAV over 3 years, then yeah the SP market is going to be expensive.

That's why turning one of the catchers into a CF is really the only way to restore some organizational balance. The Jays have 3 catchers and literally one OF signed beyond 2023 with nothing close in the minors. I think you could probably live with Nootbaar + a short term deal for someone like Kiermaier to bide some time, but ideally you turn a catcher into a long term CF, and then go year to year with LF until a longer term option presents itself.

Seems the Jansen/Nootbaar talk has surfaced because of (who else) Morosi talking about it on MLB Network. I doubt the Cardinals make that deal, but at least Morosi is talking about a deal that benefits the Jays this time, which is better than him trying to make Teoscar for Flexen seem like a fair deal a few weeks ago.

Yeah this type of role is probably ideal for Mattingly since he doesn’t have to feel emasculated by having to take orders from Atkins, while also possibly using him in a role where his strengths from a managerial standpoint can be used more effectively (whatever those strengths might be).

A trade with Jansen and Grisham as the main pieces seems pretty reasonable. I'm not sure the Padres do it because they only have 3 OF's on their entire 40 man roster right now, so they'd need to acquire an OF or two before they moved Grisham, but if they were to do that, then it fills needs for both teams and it's the type of deal one should reasonably expect in return for Jansen. Grisham seems more likely to post a plus 100 wRC+ than Bellinger is, and he comes with 3 years of cheap control from ages 26-28. Reality is, Jansen is not going to get any of the Arizona OF's, and likely won't get someone as controllable as Nootbaar. Best bet is to get a similarly valued and controlled player who fills an area of need. Obviously if the Jays did not have a catcher surplus, then Jansen would be an extension candidate right now rather than a trade chip, but since he is a trade chip, you have to factor in a lot of his deficiencies (health, lack of track record, control) into his value. He's probably not going to fetch as much as he should in a trade, which is why some have argued to trade one of the other catchers depending on the return.

The team has more big league catching options than big league outfield options right now. There will be another move. Whether the move is good or not remains to be seen but there will be a move.

I don't know if it's so much Bellinger love or just realistically looking at the options. Nimmo is going to cost something ridiculous like 5/120 or 6/130. Kiemaier is going to be 33 coming off hip surgery. FA market is not good for CF. Bellinger only wants a 1 year deal so even if he still sucks with the bat it's not going to tie the team down for years. With that said, the team definitely needs to add another OF even if they sign Bellinger, preferably one that is controllable. Next year's CF market isn't any better. I've always been on the "trade with Arizona" train, but I'm doubling down on it now. CF is hard as hell to fill, especially a LH CF. They have 4 LH CF and the Jays have 3 big league catchers. There's a trade in there somewhere. Just find it already.

If Bellinger can be a 90-100 wRC+ guy with his defense and base running, he'd be a pretty valuable player. Will the shift changes, Rogers Centre, and maybe some better health (if he's still battling issues) get him to that level? I have no idea, but as long as that's the expectation and not 2019 Bellinger, then it's probably worth the gamble on a one year deal. But yes, there is real risk of him being the same guy he's been in 2021-22. He wouldn't be available if there wasn't that risk.

Yeah, not only because of recent history (Semien), but the Jays have a s*** outfield aside from Springer. They'd play Bellinger everyday out of sheer necessity. I'm sure Bellinger/Boras both want it.

If the Jays were to get Bellinger, then I would imagine they'd try to get a long term OF option as well. Whether that's one of Arizona's OF's, or St. Louis, or somewhere else. I can't see Atkins going into 2024 with only one OF under contract especially since the minor league system isn't close to developing one. I would agree that if Bellinger was it in terms of position player acquisitions, then it would be a huge mistake.

Latest from Rosenthal re: Arizona centerfielders. I'm not sure how good McCarthy is, as his Savant page looks very blue other than speed, but sounds like he'd be the most realistic trade target from the D-Backs.

Probably depends on when Nimmo signs. He might be the Jays top target (logically, not because of Boboa), and if they fail on him, then they'll move on to other options.

Yeah we can't assume anything yet, but Pearson as a RP in September 2021 looked pretty good. If the Jays give up on him as a SP or a bulk reliever, and just tell him to let loose for one inning appearances, then I think that's his best shot of being a contributor. Of course he has to stay healthy, and that's the biggest question mark with him.

Jeff Passan seems to think that Nimmo's deal will resemble Shin Soo Choo's, and I want nothing to do with that type of contract for him. I think the Jays interest in him is probably real, but if the numbers get into the six year range and well over $100m, then I would hope the Jays pass. I might feel more comfortable with a Nimmo overpay if at least one of Vlad/Bo were extended, but to have that lingering and then add another $100m contract to a guy in his 30s is playing with fire.

I read something about them wanting to reset their CBT status so this might be the off season where they lay low (by their standards) and then splurge again next winter.

As I look at the Jays current situation more, I'm actually starting to think that the Nimmo talk is legit. Only OF locked up beyond 2023 is Springer. The highest ranked OF in the farm system right now is Gabriel Martinez and he was left unprotected, so you know he's not that close. Next one after that is Dasan Brown who is far off. The best OF options in free agency aside from Nimmo are all one year options (Conforto, Belly, Brantley, KK, etc). Quick look at next year's FA market, and the CF's out there will be Bader (RH), Kike (RH), and Bellinger. I don't think Atkins leaves this off season without another OF who is controllable beyond 2023. I think it's either going to be an ugly overpay for Nimmo or a catcher traded for a OF.

Mets have non tendered Dom Smith. Looked like he finally turned the corner in 2019-20 but fell off afterwards.