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glory

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Everything posted by glory

  1. glory
    Bellinger is a Boras guy so there's likely no chance for a team option to be tacked on. Maybe a mutual option with a buyout but those are bogus anyway. If the Jays are looking for a legit starting CF option, then it's either Nimmo, Bellinger, Kiermaier, or trade. Even if Bellinger is a very flawed option, there isn't much there. I feel like the team that gives Nimmo $100+ million is going to regret it and I'd rather it not be the Jays, so the options beyond that are slim.
  2. glory
    Yeah would prefer Bellinger (if non tendered) over Kiermaier if those were my options. Both would provide plus defense and baserunning, but at least you could pray that Bellinger is fixable and the bat might be average or better with some tinkering/luck. KK is what he is, and in his 30's now.
  3. glory
    Yeah that's probably the deal to make if it's available. Nootbaar isn't a legit CF like Thomas is but if he can play there enough to have Springer DH/play RF for a good part of the season, then it can work defensively. Plus you get 5 years of control on a LHH outfielder who can contribute right away (less risk). Not sure if the Cards would do it, but definitely the deal that makes the most sense for the Jays from a short and long term standpoint.
  4. glory
    I wouldn't be against trading Kirk, but there is some risk to the 2023 team in that scenario. Trading him after trading Hernandez, without getting an established good hitter in return is losing a lot of potential offense. Trading Moreno in that scenario might make more sense since Kirk/Jansen is an established elite catching tandem, while Moreno could take years to fully develop. If they trade Kirk in this type of deal then they'd have to have at least one hitter lined up to acquire who could hit in the top 4 in the lineup. I guess Kirk for Thomas + pitcher combined with signing Conforto has potential to turn into a net positive combining defense, base running, lineup balance, upside, etc, but there's still some risk there. That's kind of the fascinating part in all of this. You can make an argument for trading any of the 3 catchers. Atkins has a tough decision to make, but I guess tough in a good way.
  5. glory
    After tonight's trade, the D-Backs now have Carroll, Varsho, Thomas, McCarthy, and Lewis, plus some depth like Garrett and Fletcher in AAA. They look much more equipped to pull off a CF for CA trade than the Cardinals do. Just a matter of making the pieces fit.
  6. glory
    I don’t think Atkins would trade Kirk for someone with less team control. I could see trading Kirk for someone like Thomas who has 6 years of control left.
  7. glory
    Agreed. I can’t comment on his minor league numbers or prospect status since I never heard of him before he came to the big leagues but what he’s done in the Majors so far is not a fluke based on Savant metrics, and 2023 projections like him. The key is if he can play CF. He didn’t spend much time there with the Cardinals, likely due to Carlson, but he might be able to play CF for at least parts of the season (Springer will DH a lot so they’ll need a CF regardless). Still a trade I would make if it were possible, but not sure if it is. With Atkins talking about balancing the lineup, I don’t think they’d want O’Neill. They clearly want left handed bats so I think that’s the direction they go in regardless of who they pick up.
  8. glory
    Yeah no chance Arizona is trading Carroll. Not even for Moreno+. They want an upgrade at catcher but they have an in house option so it's not like they are desperate. That would be an amazing move for the Jays if it were possible but I can't see a scenario where it is. They are more likely to move someone like Alek Thomas, but that's a bit risky for the Jays since they lost Hernandez so replacing him with someone who may or may not hit well in 2023 might not be the best idea. If Nootbaar is available, then I think he's the guy to go after. He has a 2.9 WAR and 125 wRC+ projection for 2023 + 5 years of control + a good amount of red on his Savant page. Not sure if he's a long term CF but he might be able to play there for at least part of the season. Jansen + Pop for Nootbaar works on Trade Values, and that site is never wrong, so let's do it.
  9. glory
    Reminds me a bit of Liam Hendriks in 2015, who Gibby for some reason did not use much in high leverage spots despite great numbers. I don't even recall him pitching in the playoffs that year except for the game Dickey f***ed up in the ALCS, but maybe I'm missing some. Hopefully the M's are misjudging Swanson the same way the Jays did Hendriks.
  10. glory
    Agreed. The D-Backs make too much sense as a trade partner as they have a surplus of exactly what the Jays need, and are interested in a catcher. There is a deal there somewhere. Nootbaar from the Cardinals makes sense as well assuming he can play CF long term.
  11. glory
    I don't think they go after Nimmo. That makes the most sense considering need/fit (LHH, CF) but adding another $100m FA contract to a 30+ year old when the payroll is already tightening up doesn't seem all that likely. If they are keeping Springer in CF, then I think the Jays go hard after Conforto, but if they are moving Springer to RF, then it becomes a bit more tricky. Maybe there's a catcher for Nootbaar type of trade on the horizon.
  12. glory
    Hard to fully judge this move until we see the follow up. There's a big hole in the OF and lineup now which will obviously be filled at some point. We need to see how it's filled. Will it be a CF or someone like Conforto? Maybe there's a trade out there. The team probably has to trade a reliever at some point as well as it's getting crowded now and not enough RP's with options to make it work.
  13. glory
    My guess is Diego Castillo but either way I hope it's not just for one RP.
  14. glory
    Hernandez has been traded to the Mariners. Please don't let it be for Flexen!
  15. glory
    The team did seem like they soured on Biggio a bit last season. Wasn't playing 2B much over Merrifield/Espinal, and they seemed reluctant to try him in the OF despite Tapia being the one they were using instead. So if the team trades Biggio this winter, it wouldn't surprise me. Non tendering him is not happening though, and it shouldn't.
  16. glory
  17. glory
    Yeah I think Merrifield is starting at 2B in 2023, at least to begin the season. After that will depend on performance. He finished the year strong (119 wRC+, 0.8 WAR, 130 PA post trade) but has been trending downwards otherwise. We will see, but I don't think they start Barger anywhere in the Majors to start the season. With Chapman being a FA after 2023, hopefully Barger becomes a legit starting 3B option in 2024. I guess we can't rule out Orelvis turning things around either, but really need one of them to have a great 2023 so there's some cushion if/when Chapman leaves.
  18. glory
    Morosi posting fake rumors for clicks is somehow less annoying than him suggesting trades.
  19. glory
    Losing Rizzo to the Astros would be a gut punch for the Yankees.
  20. glory
    Atkins doesn't usually spend on (or prioritize) relievers, so I'd be somewhat surprised if the main piece coming back in a Jansen trade were a RP or two. With that said, I am mentally preparing for Jansen to the Tigers for Soto (or something like that) just so I don't get too disappointed if it happens.
  21. glory
    Montero back with the Astros for 3/$34.5m. The RP market is very expensive, and Atkins hates spending money on the bullpen. Trade route looks more likely.
  22. glory
  23. glory
    Manoah doesn't have to be extended this early, just that he's a priority in general along with Vlad. I'm less bullish on Bichette, mainly because I don't see the Jays ever moving him off SS and he's not good there, so just take the next 3 years and then hope for a Jeremy Pena situation from the farm system.
  24. glory
    I think a Vlad extension will be worked out eventually. Whether it happens this winter remains to be seen, but it seems like he wants to stay long term and at some point if Atkins wants the sustainable winning model that he and Shapiro have been preaching, then eventually they'll have to extend somebody important. Vlad and Manoah should be the priority. Jays have 3 years to develop an internal SS option, and I think that's a reasonable amount of time to get the most out of Bichette's remaining control and then letting him walk for that internal option.
  25. glory
    On any other good team, Jansen is an extension candidate right now. That's why I fear what the Jays are going to get in return for him. Only two years of control left and some injury history may hurt his value a bit. Other teams are probably salivating to get him at a cost lower than what his upside/value really is, so hopefully Atkins can hold firm and get a good deal if he is in fact the one moved.
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