glory

Yeah no doubt that a 4th OF on this team would easily get 400-500 PA's, but I would think it's still going to be a hard sell for free agents since the team has 3 established OF's already. A player who has other options and still sees himself as an everyday-ish player may prefer the more clear path to playing time. Although maybe being on a winning team with a chance to seriously contend could tip the scales in Toronto's favor if the alternative were a bad team. I guess it depends on the individual player. Pollock is 35 and Cutch is 36. They aren't getting any more big contracts in their careers, so maybe they accept lesser roles on winning teams.

Yeah this isn't a bad deal given the market. It takes him through age 36 and the Red Sox should get a good amount of prime production years out of it. It's the deals that go to age 40 and beyond that are harder to justify. Plus, they couldn't afford to lose Devers after an all time bad trade with Betts and now losing Xander for nothing. Devers is the guy they had to pay/keep.

Another thing to keep in mind with the Jays adding an OF, aside from payroll/CBT, is the fact that they'd likely want to keep DH relatively free so that Kirk/Jansen, Springer, and Vlad can take their turns there. That's probably going to make them less likely to go after a player who will want 400-500 plate appearances (Pollock, Cutch, etc), and it's probably going to make the Jays an undesirable location for the best OF's still available on the market since playing time will be somewhat uncertain. Wouldn't surprise me at all if the bench was Espinal, Biggio, Lopez, and 5th OF (JBJ/Zimmer equivalent), assuming Merrifield starts at 2B and Kirk/Jansen are at CA/DH. Although someone like Robbie Grossman who shouldn't have visions of being anything beyond a platoon bench player at this point might be possible depending on cost.

I wonder if they might even look internally at someone like Otto Lopez who hit LHP really well in the minors. This front office likes to use options when available so maybe they'll start him in AAA because of that, but if they are right up against the CBT threshold, then going over it for a 4th OF seems kind of pointless. Might as well wait until the trade deadline to go over it by adding someone with more impact, depending on who is available. The Jays are going to have to start trusting their own player development anyway. The CBT stuff isn't going to go away as Vlad/Bo get more expensive, and the team having to replace Chapman (or re-sign him) next year. Guys like Lopez, Barger, Horowitz, etc, should be getting some opportunity if injuries arise.

My guess is the bold part above is what will happen. Siakam is looking like a legit star now. I don't think they move him given how hard it is to get players like him. The issue the Raptors will have is that Barnes and Pascal are similar players, so it's going to be harder for Barnes to reach whatever his ceiling is with Pascal on the team too. But I think they at least try to make it work. Trading Fred and Trent is a no brainer at this point.

Between Pearson, Zulu, and the Julian's, I think there's a chance for at least 1 high leverage RP to emerge from that group in 2023. I don't know why I am bullish on Pearson since he's given me no reason to be, but him in a 1 inning role just seems like something that is going to work out if he stays healthy (which is the caveat with him). I think if Merryweather pans out it will probably be somewhere else. Fernandez is a nice MiLB signing whether he works out or not. If you can get that type of high reward talent on a MiLB deal then good work. You can't teach 100 mph. If you can fix whatever his issues are, then you might have something. If not, then no big loss.

Charlie wiping a tear from his eye as he reads that.

Schneider managing Mayza is kind of terrifying after last season, so I wouldn't mind an upgrade there, whether Britton or someone else. If Britton can be had on a heavy incentive laden deal then it might be worth pursuing if his velocity/health checks out. Plus he's historically done pretty well against RHB, so that would definitely come in handy. (yes I'm still salty over the Carlos Santana thing).

Against LHP, probably. Merrifield's splits have been pretty even in his career. Pollock, McCutchen, and Grossman's splits for example are far more significant towards hitting LHP. Of those three I'd prefer whichever one comes cheaper between Pollock/McCutchen since they are more likely to not be helpless against RHP, but whether either of them would want to be a part-time/platoon bat is the question. Grossman likely has no choice.

Otto Lopez might be another option. He's already on the 40 man roster, can play multiple positions, and has hit LHP in the minors (.381/.452/.543 in 125 PA in 2022 and .344/.429/.458 in 112 PA in 2021). Though it looks like he has 1 option remaining so he'll probably start in the minors. Pollack, McCutchen, Grossman, Pham (unlikely due to personality), and Mancini are all out there in case the Jays want a vetrin RHB who can platoon with Kiermaier. I vaguely remember a report about the Jays trying to trade for Grossman at the trade deadline in 2021. Wouldn't surprise me if he's the one they end up getting, but a lot will depend on how much they want to allocate to that position. I can't imagine Grossman would get much coming off the season he had, but who knows in this market.

That was my thought as well. An OF of Hernandez-Varsho-Springer left to right would have looked good on paper. Of course that is discounting some of the other factors, mainly cost. Hernandez/Kiermaier is a projected $5m difference, and if the Jays had to find a reliever with Swanson's profile in free agency that would have cost some significant payroll space as well.

Yeah Varsho has more control than Vlad and Bo. He definitely helps short term but he’s a long term option. I like how Atkins has balanced both short and long term building this off season. Smart and practical off season so far.

Varsho should play everyday. KK should be platooned. That’s the way I expect it to go as well.

Robbie Grossman seems like a realistic target.

I think it had more to do with "run prevention" which is the buzz term Atkins has been throwing out all off season. Gurriel is awful defensively and Hernandez isn't much better. Defense in the OF should be significantly better next season as well as the base running. Offense likely took a hit depending on whether Varsho is closer to a league average bat or if he has more upside, but I think they were willing to take that gamble.

Turning the catching surplus into a long term LHH outfielder was the most logical way to go this winter. Didn't think Atkins would actually trade Moreno. The only skepticism I have about Varsho is his iffy statcast offensive numbers, but even if he's a 105-110 wRC+ bat, with his defense and baserunning that's a very good player. A legit CF is slowly becoming one of the hardest positions to fill in baseball. The Jays have one for 4 years now. Wouldn't shock me at all if Moreno becomes a very good catcher, though. Bat to ball skills + athleticism. If he develops any sort of power then watch out. Either way it was a risk the Jays could afford to take. Wins added in 2023-25 are very important with the current roster construction, and if Moreno takes a few years to develop, then it would have hindered that window.

The front office seems pretty confident that they are adding a LH bat. Interesting to see which direction they go as the options are dwindling with Conforto gone. Profar, Peralta, and Kepler are out there in free agency and trade, while Reynolds is out there for a potential mega trade, which I don’t think the Jays should be doing right now. They are likely going to be a tax team this season and that’s without extensions to Vlad/Bo. They can’t really afford to trade high end prospects anymore. They need those prospects to perform cheaply in the Majors, especially in the rotation where they already have 3 $20m AAV players, another on a long term deal (Berrios), and then Kikuchi’s deal. Profar is not a middle of the order hitter but otherwise he seems to fit what the Jays are looking for, and his numbers with/without the shift as a LHB are dramatic from what I’ve read. Peralta seems like a vetrin stopgap type. Trade options other than Reynolds and Kepler seem scarce as well unless there’s a name out there that no one has discussed before, which is possible.

If Hendriks is traded then his 2024 option becomes guaranteed so he’d effectively be a 2/29 investment if he were traded here. Probably worth it in this market but ideally the Jays would be able to get a LH outfielder out of the deal as well, and I just don’t see a fit there unless the deal can be expanded to include someone like Colas (Jays would have to add more).

Peralta does make a lot of sense, especially since he's more likely to accept a platoon/non-everyday role than Conforto is, so the Jays would have a bit more flexibility with DH in that scenario (for Kirk, Springer, etc). Most of the good free agents signed before Christmas. I don't remember a MLB free agency that went this quickly.

Brantley apparently close to a deal with the Astros. Edit: Conforto and Profar still left on the market but options are dwindling.

End of an era.

Joey Gallo signing a one year deal with the Twins according to Passan.

There's a good chance the left side of the Yankees infield by mid season is Volpe and Peraza. They will have a full year of Bader in CF. They will add a LF (likely one of Conforto/Brantley/Benintendi/Peralta), which should be an upgrade over Joey Gallo and Aaron Hicks. It's also possible that they run with JD and IKF at 3B and SS again, so who knows, but I think their offense is probably going to trend upwards from last season.