glory

Yeah series isn’t over. Astros play like s*** at home this season for some reason. Could easily see the Rangers win the next two.

Dave Dombrowski with the Red Sox... 2016: 93-69, lost in ALDS 2017: 93-69, lost in ALDS 2018: 108-54, won World Series 2019: 76-67, 3rd in AL East (fired prior to end of season) I don't recall the circumstances of his firing, maybe due to sign stealing stuff going on with the org at the time, but something like that followed by hiring Chaim Bloom to wreck the team for 4 years is probably not the most appealing recent track record. Keep in mind the new GM is going to inherit some bad contracts and will likely have to keep the team competitive. It's not a job that someone with options would leap at unless it was a dream job.

Being fit is only half the issue with him. He needs some mechanical adjustments at the plate as well. But one step at a time.

Kirk from 2020 through June 2022: 460 PA, 3.7 WAR, .291.376/.486, 142 wRC+, .195 ISO From from July 2022 - present: 717 PA, 2.7 WAR, .253/.336/.348, 97 wRC+, .095 ISO I used those dates because July 2022 was when Kirk's power decline began, and it just continued from there. I'm not sure what lead to the power decline, but the ISO dipped significantly and never recovered. I think a lot of people are still clinging to the hope that he's closer to the pre-July 2022 player rather than the post, but there's more sample size (and more recency) with the below average slap hitter, unfortunately. I think keeping Kirk over Moreno will prove to be a mistake, even if Varsho rebounds (which I expect/hope he will). Even if you got less back for Kirk, it might have still been worth it if it filled a need somewhere. The player Kirk has become post July 2022 is an ok starter/great backup. If Jansen could ever stay healthy I don't think it's a contest of which one is the better player at this point, but Atkins seems to think extending young players is against the CBA, so this might be Jansen's last season here. Of course if Kirk's power suddenly comes back, then the discussion (vs Moreno and Jansen) changes.

I recall Manfred mentioning a 154 game season recently when talking about wanting more international games during the regular season, with one owner (Cardinals) being for it. I don't think shortening the regular season is that big of a stretch, although my guess is if it does happen that it will happen when there is expansion and the playoffs become 7 teams in each league like the owners originally wanted.

That "Ross Atkins preferred Cody Bellinger to Daulton Varsho Last Off Season" article is going to be incredible. What an oddly specific and pointless thing to write about. Ng made some decent moves (Luzardo being the best one) but also had some stinkers in there (Garcia contract). If they wanted to write an article detailing every move, then that might have been an interesting read, but just singling out that Segura/Turner move is strange.

I kinda want to sign Josh Donaldson now just to see how quickly he voluntarily retires after spending a few minutes talking to Jays coaches.

I’ve said before, the biggest mistake with Varsho was making that trade after already signing Kiermaier. Unintentionally sabotaged Varsho’s first year because putting him in LF put way more pressure on his bat, and didn’t get the maximum value for his glove since he wasn’t in CF. I still believe he’s a 3-4 WAR player next season in CF, but we will see. Depends on if he’s a 100 wRC+ true talent or an 80 wRC+ true talent.

Yeah the only change I'd make is have the WC round back to a single elimination game again, and push the DS round to best of 7. This season's WC round was pretty boring, and having games on in the early afternoon on weekdays isn't the best idea anyway. Put all the WC games on prime time, winner take all, and then have the DS be a longer round.

Yeah the Dodgers are getting Ohtani. They didn’t spend for the 2023 season specifically for that reason. The Yankees have the motivation to get him but Hal isn’t George so there will be a limit on what they will offer. Either way the Jays would have to blow both those offers out the window to have a chance at him and that’s not happening. Unfortunately the FA market aside from him is weak.

I meant big move in terms of a multi year free agent, not necessarily big move as in star player (other than Ohtani there really isn’t much there). Maybe the position player version of Bassitt. Soler checks a lot of boxes for what the Jays need as long as he’s not in the outfield so I could see something like that. Previously I was expecting some faith with younger players (Schneider, Horowitz, etc) but I’m not sure they go that route anymore. My guess is Orelvis and Tiedemann are the only prospects they will look to hold on to, and we see a trade or two with some others.

I've said before, I think the next 9 months (off season and trade deadline) are going to be the Ross Atkins equivalent of 2015 AA. He knows the pressure is on with the timeline starting to shorten, and now add on the pressure of 0-6 in playoff games and an embarrassing exit in two consecutive seasons. I can't imagine he's going to head into the off season with the impression that he has years of job security. I expect at least one big signing and some prospects being moved in a trade(s).

The expanded format is going to lead to situations like this (DBacks in the NLCS with 84 wins) from time to time but I think it’s good for the game and good for the fans to have more teams in contention and in the post season somewhat regularly. It definitely devalues the regular season in terms of importance, though.

Harper got doubled up at 1st base to end Game 2, and there was a quote from a reporter saying that Arcia was mocking Harper in the clubhouse after the game. That pissed Harper off and he went ballistic in Game 3, staring at Arcia when rounding the bases during both of his home runs. So I’m guessing the Braves (and Gausman apparently) are mad that something said in the clubhouse was made public. Of course that’s what I’m assuming Gausman is talking about, and not something Jays related.

The Gausman tweet sounds like it’s about the Harper/Arcia ordeal.

Shapiro might be part of the problem, sadly. He’s great at certain things (getting Rogers to spend, mostly) but the Jays as an org needed new leadership and he didn’t feel that was necessary despite all the stuff going on. Not a good look on him, IMO. I figured they’d get rid of the hitting coaches and keep everyone else. Maybe that will end up working out positively for 2024, who knows, but still disappointing.

I doubt it. If anyone questioned Atkins about that trade, he'd just deny his involvement in it.

I think Shapiro has two years left on his contract. Depending on how much he wants to stay, I think he’d have to put his relationships aside for the betterment of not only the franchise but also his own job security. If he’s ride or die with Atkins, then I wouldn’t mind him gone too. No way he can look at what happened on the field and see the disconnect between front office and coaching/players, and not do something.

Yeah the Orioles won 100 games this season without even trying to compete in the off season or the trade deadline. Their run isn't close to being over. Of course if their ownership doesn't want to spend on pitching, and their GM doesn't want to trade prospects for pitching, then they might run into similar issues in the playoffs.

Yeah, Ohtani's contract is going to be 10-12 years to lower the AAV. If he was completely healthy and was both hitting and pitching then I think there would have been no chance for the Jays to be in the running given what the price would have been, but as a DH-only for a year and then an unknown pitching career from 2025-onwards, it likely drops his overall value. One option could be to give him the big money over a long period of time but adding a player opt out after year 2 so he could potentially go back on the market two years from now after presumably pitching for a full season in 2025. The Jays would probably have to do something like that in addition to overpaying in order to get him away from the Dodgers and others. It's a nice thought but I don't see it happening. Trading for Robert is probably more likely of a scenario, though it would be costly. As I said in another thread, the White Sox are really cheap, so if you agree to take Moncada then maybe the price drops a bit, although for cost savings they would likely prefer a team taking Benintendi, which after seeing the 2023 Jays offense would make me want to vomit more than usual.

I don't think Bichette having a 4 WAR next season would be an unreasonable expectation, but everyone else currently on the roster for 2024? I wouldn't bank on it. This entire window was predicated on Vlad and Bo being superstars, meaning 5-6+ WAR players. That simply is not the case. The best player on the team is Bo and he's closer to a 3-4 WAR level player. Clearly Vlad is no where near a superstar player, and there's just too much volatility in his expected performance to bank on him as a core player. He could be a 4+ WAR player or he could be replacement level and neither option would be all that surprising at this point. Either way, expecting anything resembling 2021 at this point would be insane, and they kinda need him to be 2021 Vlad in order to have a real chance. If Atkins is still here, then I'm expecting this off-season and possibly next trade deadline to be his AA 2015 moment. He's going to go all in whether it hurts the long term outlook of the team or not. I just don't know if a star of that caliber is available. Maybe Luis Robert, and if you absorb Moncada's contract at the same time maybe the price would drop a bit, but otherwise I can't think of any player that stands out. Maybe Soto. I guess more names will become known after the playoffs end.

I feel like this Diamondbacks run is going to be a giant middle finger to Ross Atkins. All I saw was the D-Backs scoring a run to make it 4-1 and I knew instantly it was either because of Moreno or Gurriel.

You could see that coming. A one run lead against the Braves offense is not easy to get through. Would be a gut punch to the Phillies if they lose this one.

This feels like a game Atlanta is going to win. Phillies bullpen has to come up big here.