glory
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Everything posted by glory
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Yeah Berrios has an $18.7M CBT hit for the Jays as long as he's with the team (even in 2027-28 when he's making $24-25M annually, he will count as $18.7M in the calculations), but that changes if he's traded based on what's left on the contract. The only thing I'm unclear on is how player options work in the calculation if he's traded. I'm assuming they are counted as guaranteed years, but they technically aren't guaranteed years since an option is involved. Does Berrios count as a $22M tax hit for the new team (18-24-24) regardless of what happens with the options, or $18M in 2026 and $24M in 2027-28 when options are picked up? I'm guessing it's $22M regardless, which does make him a bit less appealing for teams who are carefully looking at the CBT money.
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I don’t think it will happen but if the Jays did sign both Bo and Tucker, then what does the lineup look like? Obvious answer is Barger at 3B and Tucker/Tony in the corners, but I’m pretty sure JS would take a bullet to the chest before he benches Clement, so there would be a log jam there.
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It’s not a “love affair” with Bassitt (with me at least, can’t speak for anyone else), it’s a way to trade Berrios without impacting SP depth. Replace Bassitt in my scenario with anyone who could conceivably be a ~2 WAR depth SP with positional flexibility (SP/RP) and the same applies. Find 2015 Marco Estrada somewhere. Removing Berrios is more about his ego and the clunky roster fit (not factoring contract). Having six big league SPs is actually a good idea that I am warming up to even if it causes a glut, especially since we don’t know what we’re getting with Ponce, and Lauer is a big regression candidate.
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Yeah Murray is behind Passan for me as far as credibility, so at least we know this meeting is legit. Whether it goes anywhere remains to be seen.
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Berrios is guaranteed 3/66 if he opts in (could be 3/68 if he reaches innings thresholds next season). Eating half of that money puts him at 3/33, which is probably closer to the type of value he would have if he were a FA right now. It's probably doable in that scenario. Just a matter of how much money the Jays are willing to cover. I kinda like the idea of trading Berrios and using the money saved on Bassitt. In that scenario the Jays would maintain their SP depth but with someone who doesn't look washed and who is willing to pitch out of the pen (effectively) if a need arises. I guess it depends on how much money the Jays actually have to spend this winter.
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Interesting note from MLBTR: "Berrios ended the 2025 season with 9.044 years of major league service time. That places him 128 days shy of 10 years. With MLB Opening Day set for March 25 and the trade deadline set to fall on Friday, July 31, Berrios would reach 10 years of service the day before next summer’s deadline." I can't imagine teams will be asking about Berrios' availability after this season with him owed $24-25M a year in 2027 and 2028, but the Jays wouldn't even be able to 'bad contract swap' him after this season's trade deadline without his consent. Probably more reason to move on now.
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I thought Barger passed the eye test at 3B. Not so much in RF (other than the arm, obviously). I agree though that not having him play one position regularly may have hurt him. I think it's crazy to consider him in RF if he's average-ish at 3B. Finding a competent 3B that can hit is not easy. They were playing him in RF so that IKF could play 2B in the playoffs (just typing that sentence hurt me) so maybe they've already decided that he's a RF in their eyes.
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If they re-sign Bo, and the OF corners are Santander and Barger, then that’s pretty bad defensively. Maybe they do go that route and strategically make defensive subs late in games (although doing that probably cost them the WS looking at games 3 and 7) but a team that values defense as heavily as the Jays would have to make some concessions to their thought process to go with that alignment. They literally started IKF at 2B in World Series because they valued whatever incremental defensive improvement it provided over starting DS. Will be interesting to see what they do. Barger at 3B and a new OF (Tucker) probably makes more sense.
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If the Jays thought Straw’s contract was worth absorbing at $11M over 2 years (even if it was at least partially for Sasaki) a year ago when he looked like he’d never see the Majors again, then he probably looks like surplus value to them now after how he performed in 2025. I don’t think he’s traded. I wouldn’t be shocked if he turns into a pumpkin again in 2026, though. My guess is that, if money becomes an issue, then they’ll try to move Rodriguez and possibly Santander in addition to Berrios. As I said before I really don’t see how Tony fits on this roster anymore if the DH spot is going to go to Springer. The Jays value defense more than any team in the league.
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Yariel from 2026-28 makes $5M, $6M, and $6.5M (player option) respectively. It's actually not as bad as I thought it was, so maybe he could be moved without having to eat up money. I can't imagine he has any value though as far as getting anything back even if you could find a team willing to take that money. Berrios and Santander are likely unmovable without having to eat up a ton of the contract. With that said, something feels off about Santander to me as far as his fit on the team. Are the Jays, a team so obsessed with defense that they absorbed $100M of Gimenez/Straw, really going to have him play everyday in the OF? I'm sure they signed him expecting him to be the DH with Springer in the OF, but Springer has thrived in the DH spot, so it would be foolish to make a change there. Maybe they just stick with him in the OF and live with the consequences.
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I doubt Yesavage starts anywhere other than the Majors as long as he's healthy. Lauer probably the long man. Either that or Berrios stays, Ponce is the long man, and Lauer is a leverage RP, but that seems like a bad use of resources. I have no idea how they could possibly move Berrios with that contract, but let's see what they do.
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Boss Atkins. No clue how Ponce is going to pitch in the bigs, but it's a reasonable gamble at 3/30. Even if he's a back end SP it would be worth it. Wonder what this means for Berrios, though.
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From BNS: Honestly looking at what's left of the RP market, it wouldn't be the worst pivot to add another SP instead. It would create a glut of SPs but that's never been a bad problem to have. Fairbanks, Suarez, Keller, etc, all feel pretty underwhelming to me depending on the cost.
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It does feel like it will be Keller or Fairbanks, which would feel kinda unspectacular but as Hoffman proved, long term deals for relievers aren’t always optimal. I highly doubt they go towards Diaz but seems pretty straight forward if they want him. Give him the years he wants and he’s yours (sounds like he wants 5). They did it with Cease. Not sure they’d do it for a reliever but who knows.
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I think Diaz goes back to the Mets. He has a QO attached to him and I don’t think any team is giving him $80-100M and losing 2 picks on top of that. Relievers are just too volatile.
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From Shi Davidi's latest article: One thing to keep in mind is that if the Blue Jays don’t get Bichette or Tucker, they can’t simply reallocate the money they would have spent on them elsewhere, as they’re being viewed as specific business cases, like Shohei Ohtani two winters ago. Again this is the same guy who said the Jays had $15-20M available to spend last winter and they ended up spending over $60M in 2025 payroll (not counting the trade deadline), so I'll take anything he says with a grain of salt but that's a surprisingly matter-of-fact statement.
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Jeff Passan posted the following on his "Threads" account: 2) Kyle Tucker: The market for the best free agent in the class could stretch into the new year potentially. At the end of the day, nobody can make a team better like Tucker, and whether it’s Toronto, Philadelphia, either New York team or perhaps one that misses out on the rest of the top players in the class, Tucker’s price will be met, and he’ll get a 10-year-plus deal for more than $300 million — with an even higher ceiling possible. 6) Bo Bichette: One could argue that behind Tucker and Schwarber, Bichette is the best bat available. And considering the paucity of everyday infielders available on the free agent and trade markets, his game stands out even more. Going back to Toronto is the most obvious outcome, but in the end, Bichette’s willingness to move off shortstop will buy him significantly more interested teams and a deal that because of his age (27) could approach $200 million. If the difference between Bo and Tucker is going to be $100M+ and multiple years, then you could argue that Bo looks way more appealing.
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The Jays just signed the best SP on the market who is also a Boras client before December. Ha-Seong Kim would probably be Plan Q for the Jays at this point. Boss Atkins is going big game hunting.
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Yeah, if I recall Shi thought the Jays had like $15-20M to spend last winter, and then they went out and got Santander, Scherzer, Gimenez, Hoffman, and Garcia. I don't think him or BNS are that plugged in. I don't know if the Jays are going to end up with one of Bo or Tucker, but I feel like they will add someone for the offense even if it's their annual "let's save the Guardians some money" trade and Kwan is playing LF. Status quo with the offense would be a mistake, IMO.
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Helsley's deal with the O's is apparently 2/28 (with an opt out after the season). Curious to see what Williams and Suarez get in this market. The Jays are likely looking at those two.
