Although I put very little stock in to the numbers he put up, It is really hard to fake that kind of domination. It shows his stuff is legit, but who knows if he can harness it long term.
my guess would be like 25% for Norris, 35% Sanchez, and 40% Estrada. I think AA is hoping Estrada pitches well and Sanchez gets moved to the pen, with Norris in the minors. He gets to hold back Norris' clock and maybe flip Estrada for something more useful.
That's why his control of his secondary pitches will be the deciding factor. He can likely keep his walks down if he throws only fastballs, but he won't be able to go through the lineup multiple times. If his changeup is a quality pitch he can locate, he will be able to stick as a starter.
Not giving up as many hits or home runs will help mitigate some of the damage caused by higher walk rates, Being a heavy ground ball pitcher will help as well. Whether or not he's a starter will depend on the control of his secondary pitches. He's got the stuff so I'm not concerned about his low strikeout stats.
There isn't really any evidence that AA has no money to spend, The fact that Navarro is still on the team proves they have some cash ready on hand. I just think AA is firmly against spending on relievers because a win in the bullpen costs more than a win from any other position, and he thinks performance is not guaranteed, Both of which are true.
Most seem to think they shouldn't waste time starting him, which would make me think they don't believe he can start. If you thought his ceiling was an ace, You wouldn't want him relieving.
The trade has a buyer trading with buyer problem. If AA would except a prospect years away the deal would be done, He's looking for immediate help and teams looking to improve by adding Navarro don't want to make their bullpens worse.
It doesn't really change the depth. If Norris goes down Estrada can replace him instantly while Sanchez gets stretched out, or take over permanently. It does show how little depth the bullpen has though.
I think the bullpen as it stands now is Cecil, Loup, Estrada, Redman, Castro, two random waiver wire fodder quality pitchers. If Norris kills spring training the bullpen should be decent, If Sanchez starts they should acquire another good reliever.
So you think they will start Estrada in AAA? don't know why you think AA would be concerned with Estrada's health. They won't leave Estrada on the ML roster in the off chance a starter goes down, Estrada will be the long man until he proves he can't do it or a starter gets injured, At which point AA will either bring up Whomever or Estrada would start 5 days later. Norris should be brought up to start unless the bullpen ends up being terrible and he's needed to compete.
The difference was also over 100 runs. May be 5 WAR, but it could cost more than 5 wins. I think a poor bullpen will lead to bad results from sequencing and a team that underperforms its pythag, I admit I have nothing to back that up though.
I agree with not spending big on members of the bullpen, but they need a couple more players above replacement level. The bullpen as it stands will cost this team a lot of games, Unless Castro and Sanchez both kill it.