Gorlak
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Everything posted by Gorlak
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Bold, I personally think strict innings limits are wrong headed since all pitchers are different. The pitchers will show signs of fatigue and that should be what is taken into account, Especially since injuries seem to be preceded by a drop in velocity rather than a set amount of innings.
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If they have no innings limit then the only advantage of starting Osuna in the pen would be that they are going with the best team possible, But if anything bad happens to a starter they will be stuck with Estrada for at least a month. I figured they would be limited to 160-170 innings. I don't think it would be a bad idea to have Sanchez start for 140 innings then move him to the pen for another 30 and have Osuna provide the other 50 innings as a starter. Having Osuna spend an entire season in the pen will limit him to only about 70 innings, which has to effect his development negatively.
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I didn't compare the two players, just pointed out Smoak has negative WAR for his career. I would have no qualms with releasing Smoak though. I wonder why everybody thinks he's a defensive specialist when he seems to just not be as much of a butcher as EE, Not like he will provide positive value from defense, He just won't bleed value as fast as EE.
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I was just being a smartass, I will say the fact that he was healthy while he sucked doesn't fill me with any confidence.
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Agreed, but I feel like the reaction would be different if they released Smoak.
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I can't see how Drabek has anything to do with Castro or Osuna. If the Jays thought he would be anything but a liability in the pen they would have kept him. Delabar/Osuna maybe. Also an extra half win would double the bullpens projected WAR.
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That's what I mean, Nothing wrong with waxing Nostalgic about Halladay or the upside Drabek once promised, But he has no place on the Jays Roster.
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How long would you keep a negative WAR reliever in your bullpen for the off chance that he eventually becomes a good player. Wanting to keep Drabek would be a sunken cost fallacy.
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I wonder if they want to start Osuna in the pen to keep his innings down at the start of the season. After a couple months they can send him down, stretch him out, and bring him up when Sanchez or Norris reach their innings limit.
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Pedroia is losing his power as well and Ortiz will have to show signs of aging eventually. They are in the running for the best offense, but it's not close to a sure thing.
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When life gives you lemons.
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If Smoak has a career year he may be worth 1 WAR.
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A little bit, but there is a decent chance the Jays get negative WAR from those AB's.
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Travis will be fine.
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I expect the non EE half of the 1st/DH platoon will likely be replacement. Smoak could get some RBI's and dingers, but will still likely be replacement. If you don't play EE at 1st you can't use good hitters at DH when they need a day off, otherwise the Jays will need to give 400 PA to Barton/Smoak/Navarro. It is by far the teams weakest position, could be one of the biggest black holes in the AL.
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AA is the one who hyped Castro up, Gibbons just knows he's losing Sanchez in the pen so he is just happy he gets a replacement.
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I went with Travis because I think he will run away with the job and a 2 WAR season wouldn't be surprising with full playing time. Castro could kill it, but as a reliever best case scenario is around 1 WAR. Pompey or Norris could surpass 2 WAR, but it's unlikely. Even if Sanchez performs well, He will outperform his peripherals.
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That's basically my opinion. Though I would say Castro was going to make this team regardless, I think the plan was for Sanchez to be the fifth starter all along. I imagine AA wanted to keep Norris down for control reasons, but Norris may force his hand with Stroman down. My money would still be that Norris starts in the minors, but since his problem is inning limits I don't know how many AA would want to waste in AAA. If he doesn't stay down long enough to gain a year of control, Those innings are effectively wasted.
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If nothing else it is a bold experiment. The downside is if he could stick as a starter and they waste development time, or he gets type casted as a reliever(which I would consider the greater concern). He could end up providing surplus value while the Jays are close enough on the win curve to warrant the risk.
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I think I'll trust mountain dew over some internet stranger.
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Blue raspberries aren't a real fruit? What the hell is in my mountain dew?
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You sour candy fans are garbage, Swedish berries. Do wine candies count?
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I wouldn't say assume so much as presume or surmise, I could be wrong as hell and I accept that.
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Usually no, but combined with his ability to limit homeruns it keeps his opp avg low enough.