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Terminator

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Everything posted by Terminator

  1. Terminator
    Well we won the Team Fielding Gold Glove award in the AL, for whatever that is worth. But that is backed up by the metrics. DRS had us at +85, good for first in all of MLB, and the 2nd place team (MIL) was 17 runs behind us.
  2. Terminator
    Well if anyone thinks that they are dumn. These guys are projected to be better: Vlad +3.2 WAR Kirk +1.6 Manoah +1.2 Springer +0.8 Varsho +0.6 Espinal +0.9 Bichette +0.4 These guys are projected to be worse: Kiermaier -1.0 WAR Gausman -1.0 Berrios -0.7 Kikuchi -0.4 Bassitt -0.2 We also lost Chapman (3.5 WAR) and Belt (2.2) and replaced them with IKF (0.9) and Turner (0.7). That is definitely a downgrade but Chapman had some of the worst WPA/clutch/RISP numbers in the league. He was just unlucky but if that normalizes with IKF, whose projection is getting dinged by the Yanks playing him in the OF last year, there might not be as much of a results based drop-off as we think. Turner projects to be better than Belt whose WAR was built on a house of cards. Everyone else is somewhat the same. And it's hard to do a straight comparison because Schneider obviously won't put up 2 WAR in 35 games but he does project for 2 WAR over 100. Paul DeJong put up -1 WAR in 10 games and won't be here. Things like that.
  3. Terminator
    I think people really really underestimate the offense and how big of a bounce back we can expect. Vlad, all by himself, is projected to have a 3.2 WAR improvement all on his own. You could spend close to 350 million to sign Cody Bellinger and Matt Chapman and push KK and IKF to the bench and you'd get roughly the same amount of WAR improvement.
  4. Terminator
    Yeah I think there will be some regression but some of it will be good. Varsho was actually not that great in LF for some reason. I bet that corrects itself and you could see better defensive numbers from him. Regardless of the numbers though, he's in his prime and should carry on. My guess is that Vlad is A LOT better. Not because I think he is good. But his metrics were bordering on unplayable last year at -13 OAA. The other 3 years he played 1st he was -2, -3, and -3. If he merely gets back to -3 that alone could make up for regression we get from older guys like KK and Springer or the drop in talent from Whit to Schneider (which is really the only clear drop-off that we'll have).
  5. Terminator
    Well how does 2023 differ from 2024's team, defensively? The only major change is Chapman but IKF is similar. Among semi-regulars, Whit wasn't anything special. Neither was Belt. Maybe Schneider and Turner are a setback but not by much in the grand scheme of things.
  6. Terminator
    If you're willing to include a reliever then Mariano Rivera would have to be considered a generational talent. Ichiro has got to be close. Randy Johnson put up 70 WAR in the past 25 years despite not pitching since 2009, he added another 40 in the 10 years prior. Pedro Martinez is a mini-version of that. Those guys probably belong in this 25 year period. But the lines get blurred as I would consider them a part of the previous generation.
  7. Terminator
    I suppose it could come down to having a logjam and then making individual decisions on the various players in question. De Los Santos got the majority of the starts at 3B toward the end of the season when the 3 real prospects were in AAA. Perhaps the Jays like him and wanted to get a look at him/see if he could improve with some coaching. Seeing as his value is all glove maybe they felt it necessary to keep him on the left side of the infield? And Jimenez, Clement and others were playing SS so 3B is where they put him? This blocked Orelvis and Parmesan who then switched to 2B and 1B, respectively, which they felt was no big deal because they might move there eventually anyway. Barger apparently has a cannon for an arm and he had never played OF before. Perhaps they felt it was his best chance to get some reps in RF before turning him into a UT player. I suppose it isn't a nail in the coffin of any of Orelivs, Barger and Parmesan playing 3B but it certainly doesn't look great when we knew we would need a 3B and instead were playing fringe org guys at the position instead.
  8. Terminator
    Yeah it was weird. We knew we would need a 3B after Chapman's pending FA. But the viable AAA options all moved off the position. Barger, Orelvis and Palmegiani barely played 3B in AAA. Instead, fringe guys like Lantigua, De Los Santos and Tanner Morris played there. There could be some sort of reason for it that I'm not seeing. But it makes me think the Jays don't think too highly of Barger, Orelvis or Palmegiani's chances to stick at 3rd.
  9. Terminator
    Lmao
  10. Terminator
    I retired the Sheriff a few months ago but imagine the amount of gloating he'd be doing if he were still around. I do feel for Frasso though, poor guy was on the verge of the big leagues. But this is why he was never worth very much. Mid 20s pitchers mowing down minor leaguers for 40 innings a year doesn't really mean much of anything. I tried explaining this to his fanboys many many times and they just couldn't wrap their heads around it.
  11. Terminator
    "The 2023 season was a step back for Toronto’s farm because many 2022 draft picks struggled." So they must mean Barriera? Along with our 2nd rounders like Kasevich, Toman and Doughty? Roden was our third rounder and he balled out.
  12. Terminator
    It's not a pretty picture! I wonder if that 23-24th range is closely grouped with 15th or so? And there's a clear drop-off when you get to the bottom 3-5? Idk trying to find some silver linings here.
  13. Terminator
    Oof, that's kind of depressing lol
  14. Terminator
    Ouch
  15. Terminator
    https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/39437646/top-30-mlb-farm-systems-prospects-list-2024-kiley-mcdaniel-cubs-orioles-tigers-padres Where do the Jays rank? I don't have ESPN+.
  16. Terminator
    Two former Jays in one set of transactions. Looked at Castillo's numbers to see if he would be a possible pickup but he's been dogs s*** since he left.
  17. Terminator
    My prediction is that Spanky goes 1 for 3 with a walk and 2 Ks. The battle is declared a "draw" after both players can't finish the contest due to injury.
  18. Terminator
    I would love to see a Battle of BJMB Stars where Spanky struggles to get a base hit off of Jays24's 68 mph fastball.
  19. Terminator
    Yeah it's a joke based on the naive definition of probability where when presented with 2 options the fallacy is to claim that both options are 50/50. I've seen the joke used before but it clearly didn't land this time. I should probably go back to my original "Sheriff" material. I know I retired the character months ago but no one can deny how popular those jokes were. We'll see!
  20. Terminator
    Ok well if the Brewers are getting a 2 WAR SS with some upside and an upside arm to go with pick 34 that's not that bad of a package for one year of Corbin Burnes where he makes 15 mil.
  21. Terminator
    Kirk will either be above average or he won't. It's 50/50
  22. Terminator
    What would the Jays’ equivalent package be?
  23. Terminator
    IKF is kind of gross at 3B. BUT I would describe him more as a "primary 3B" rather than a starting 3B. If you look at Fangraph's Depth Charts, you'll see 8 players contributing to 700 PAs at 3B and they combine for 2.1 WAR. That's not great but if you compare it to other contenders, they mostly all have at least one positions like that. Some of them have an even worse black hole and some of them have multiple subpar positions (we only have one).
  24. Terminator
    Yeah I'm a little worried about Turner as well. He's old and sucked against fastballs last year for the first time in his career. That said, he's been remarkably consistent over the years. He just simply doesn't have off years. So if he still has talent, it's a good bet to translate into his performance onfield. Compare that to other options and Soler has been remarkably inconsistent while JDM projects very similarly to Turner and also has age-related concerns.
  25. Terminator
    5-9 isn't that bad. Steamer (aka the Bible) projects the following: 5. Jansen (110 wRC+)/Kirk (122) 6. Varsho (106) 7. Schneider (113)/Biggio (99)/Espinal (98) 8. IKF (89) 9. KK (91) I'll give you that 8 and 9 are subpar but they both bring elite defense to the table. Then you have Vlad (145), Bo (124), Springer (116) and Turner (105) which should make for a pretty formidable top of the lineup.
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