Terminator

Going to be a ton of moving parts to the lineup this year. The platoons aren't going to be traditional lefty/righty platoons either but based more on pitch types. As you mentioned, 3B and 2B will see a ton of guys rotating through but DH (maybe Vogelbach if he makes the team as well as Jansen/Kirk) and LF (Schneider and some Biggio) are going to see a lot of that as well.

Barger hitting his 60th percentile projections probably makes him a better option at 3B against righties than those other guys too.

Barger hitting the 60th percentile projections as a 3B/RF would be a pretty sweet addition to the team. And you're right, him being able to play the field (over Vogelbach who can't) means less Turner at 3B, more DH days for Springer, etc.

Probably not but we are in a new era where we can track everyone's pitches and compare them to last year. Even vets come in to Spring with new tricks up their sleeve.

No statcast today is annoying. I'd like to look under the hood.

Yeah Davis would have been a better fit if we didn’t already have Turner.

For this to make sense there had to be some sort of huge falling out between the team and Chapman. No way you offer a guy 6 year for 120 mil and then end up not topping the deal he got with the Giants.

Regardless, Atkins is definitely on my own personal hot seat! He’s running a Top 5 payroll and we have a coin flip chance at the playoffs and a bottom 1/3 farm system. He needs a big year to keep his job.

The Turner deal is the biggest head scratcher but by that point you are probably right in that they had an idea that the Giants were always going to beat us on a one year deal. Even though it’s improved, some players still don’t want to play in TO. Chapman is a west coast guy that lives in Arizona. He doesn’t even have to move for ST anymore and he’s a lot closer to San Fran. Jays seem to do better with FL guys now, but there is still probably some hesitancy from CA/AZ guys. Jays internal projections might be down on Chapman anyway and the team may have been wise to pass on him and save their remaining dollars in case of injury. Manoah was iffy as is and now with a shoulder injury he’s even more of a question mark. Perhaps a German or Lorenzen signing is more necessary now.

Well it’s more of a Brandon Belt catch lightning in a bottle situation with a veteran on a one year deal. Giants resigned Flores too so they definitely will look to move Davis now I think.

It’s possible. He’s from the Bay Area and has spent his whole career there other than two years with us. Perhaps he couldn’t swallow crawling back to TO after turning down 100 mil previously. But a new start for his hometown team was something he could take. Regardless, now that his Jays career is over that was one hell of a trade. He piled up a bunch of WAR in a couple of seasons and now we get a comp pick. And we gave up nothing of significance in return.

TL;DR: The other moves are okay in a vacuum but the one that really screwed us was signing Turner for 13.5 mil in February at a time when it looked like the market was going to put a squeeze on Chapman and others and there were still plenty of DHs out there.

Yeah been saying JD Davis would be a fit all offseason. He’d be a perfect fit if we didn’t sign Turner but I’d still take him at this point. He’s in a FA year and he has flashed some serious offensive potential before. He gets labeled as a butcher at 3B on this board but his UZR is okay and his OAA is decent. Really just his DRS sucks.

Most of the moves made sense at the time: -Chad Green options were picked up very early in the offseason. Seemed like a solid move after the previous offseason saw far worse relievers getting more guaranteed money. -KK on a one year deal seemed like a decent deal. This was lower than what Fangraphs projected. -IKF seemed like an overpay but the numbers are nominal and other than Chapman he seemed like the best 3B fit on the market. They probably see this as an upside play too. But this deal looks worse after the other infield options like Urshela signed for far less than we thought they would but no one has a crystal ball. -Yariel got a good chunk of change but his AAV is low. If he’s even a number 5 pitcher that will be a decent contract. If he’s a #4 that will be a good deal. Another upside play. Ok now all that makes some sense, especially in the timeframe in which those guys signed. But here’s the real kick in the nuts: -Justin Turner signed very late into the offseason for 13.5 mil. By this point it was clear that the market was developing slowly and with ST starting in just a couple of weeks that some prices were going to drop. Chapman was still there as were plenty of DH options in JDM, Soler, Pham, Belt, etc. We also have Horwitz and then picked up Vogelbach for free. We weren’t desperate but Atkins made a desperation move. Even after what turned out to be overpays for KK and IKF, if he doesn’t sign Turner we STILL could have gotten Chapman. And at this point he should have known that there were going to be some bargains. Signing Turner is where Atkins really screwed up. Really, the only explanation for this is that Atkins thinks Chapman is cooked after his final 4.5 months of the season and just doesn’t even want him. It’s possible he’s got some info that we don’t. It’s not like the rest of the league thinks Chapman is that good either. But this doesn’t square with the rumored contract we offered Chapman earlier this offseason. I guess the other explanation would be if we signed Snell or spent money on someone else but that seems almost impossible after letting Chapman walk. I’m not entirely off the Atkins train yet but I would like to formally apologize to the Atkins haters who were sticking a fork in this offseason a month or two ago. IKF and Yariel could ball out and make it turn out okay still but it seems like there were better moves to make.

Tulo was a little different. He hit a 320 foot opposite field wall scraper and then talked s*** the entire time he rounded the bases because we cut him.

He’s such a crybaby over everything

He has one of the slowest trots in the game. He’s definitely enjoying them but let’s be real, I also think it’s a product of his speed and fitness lol

lol yeah Frank the tank couldn’t make contact. I bet the guy in question had some damn good stats in D3 though. I’ve been impressed lol.

Traveling so not posting the link but in Bauer’s defense, that Barstool blogger took some ABs against a Red Sox reliever and he ripped a line drive single off of him with one of his very first swings. He looks like he’s about 5’7’’ 110 pounds but he must be pretty damn good for your average dude.

If Manoah is cooked could go to Francis in addition to White. Tiedemann a midseason add. Could also sign someone like Lorenzen.

I don’t think it’s a slam dunk compared to what we ended up with. IKF/KK/Yariel are about 25 mil AAV and Chapman and Pham are probably going to sign for similar? We’ll see. I’m not even factoring in Turner but he signed late as is. Chapman is about a win better than IKF but KK is a little better than Pham according to Steamer and about a win better according to Zips. We’ll see what Yariel ends up being but if he can stick in the rotation that would help. In the ultimate dream scenario, Atkins pounces on the best offers he gets for Espinal/Biggio/Yimi etc. early in the offseason. He waits on IKF, KK and Yariel until their prices come down and then and we end up signing all of the above at the lower rates in addition to a couple of other guys. Would have loved to have seen the fan reaction to waiting until February to do anything though.

What do you mean

Yeah in a market where Rosario and Urshela are signing for peanuts Espinal isn’t worth jack s***. But maybe he shouldn’t be worth anything. The right move is to maybe option him to try and keep Clement. And if it allows you to upgrade with moves like signing Chapman then it might be worth it anyway.