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Terminator

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Everything posted by Terminator

  1. Terminator
    Yeah but if they did that all of that they would be f***ing STACKED and could go toe to toe with the AL East. These are the Steamer Projections. This lineup would be very very good. C- Kirk 4 WAR 1B- Vlad 3.8 WAR 2B- Horwitz 3.3 WAR 3B- Bregman/Kim/Adames (3.4-3.8) SS- Bo 3.3 WAR LF- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR? CF- Varsho 2.9 WAR RF- Springer 2.4 WAR DH- Teo/Santander/Alonso/Walker/Tyler Oneil/etc.tier 2.5ish WAR? but DHing would revise it down Bench- Is going to be an above average big league bench with all the buffalo boys. For pitchers I'm not going to use Steamer200IP because it's stupid. None of the starters will hit 200 innings so I'll use your projections and some Steamer600 I revise down. 1. Snell/Fried/Burnes 3.5ish+ WAR 2. Gausman 3.5 3. ??? Just sign a guy with a pulse to give you 1 or 2 WAR and this rotation is Top 10ish 4. Bassitt 2.5 5. Berrios 1.5 Yariel projects great but he's hard to trust Bloss should be ok depth Then you say fix the bullpen and add a legitimate backup catcher and that team would be really damn good. Would compete for the AL East.
  2. Terminator
    It's not good but I don't know that it's quite that dire. If they did everything on that list they would be pretty damn stacked. Do about half of it (or all of it halfway) and I think "the WC3 will be easy to make." I don't think we need a #1 Catcher. Kirk got off to a slow start but has been hitting fine since late April, his xstats are fine, and he has elite D to go with it. He also has the 25th highest Steamer600 WAR in baseball right now. They need 2 or 3 bats and there are different ways to do it. Sign a Tier 2 FA like Bregman, Kim or Adames and then get a couple of decent bats in LF and DH. The rotation definitely needs a solid starter but I'm not sure it needs an ace AND a mid rotation guy. If they got a #2 SP and bumped Bloss to AAA as depth that might be enough. The bullpen is a mess but that is the easiest fix. Trade one or two of our bench guys (we have a bunch) and make 2 or 3 signings and it could be ok enough. Seems pretty daunting but the AAV room is there on the payroll I think. Even so, that's spending like 60 mil in AAV to only become wild card contenders. Not great.
  3. Terminator
    Well he was an honorable mention by Fangraphs on June 19 but he was 22 in A+. Since then he has been promoted to AA which is a big jump and has continued to rake in over 100 ABs. Not seeing where they rank him 29th now but the difference between 29th and 12 could be as small as moving someone from 40 to 45. And smacking around AA pitching after a promotion would be enough to move someone up that small bit.
  4. Terminator
    McAdoo went 2 for 4 of Skenes in college. He's got to be decent.
  5. Terminator
    KK will def get traded somewhere. Hoping Bassitt and Green get dealt too.
  6. Terminator
    Yes, exactly.
  7. Terminator
    Tom Tango says to ignore this as it's mostly just noise. Vlad's career numbers line up with his xstats otherwise. Yes, but that only explains why his 2024 is so much better than his 2023. And that's true. His xstats are better in 2024 and so are his real stats. It doesn't explain why his stats were so much worse than his xstats in 2023.
  8. Terminator
    So basically: 1- He was only a 1 WAR player last year due to bad luck. He was more like a 3 WAR player with normal luck. 2- Throw out your notions of him being a perpetual underperformer of his xStats because he can't pull the ball in the air. It's only happened to him one season in his career and Tom Tango says to ignore it. This is hard to do because it's really ingrained groupthink on the board. But his xStats are the real deal. So with 1 and 2 in mind, that should make an extension for Vlad more palatable to most people here. Definitely doesn't mean it's an open and shut case and there are plenty of arguments against it. But Vlad has been a better player than he gets credit for here.
  9. Terminator
    Oh I'm not saying his 2023 was as good as this year because it wasn't, he's trending to get 4.5 WAR this year. But 2023 also wasn't the 1 WAR disaster that it looked like. fWAR is calculated using his wOBA which was .340 in 2023 and is pretty darn bad for a 1B. If they used his xwOBA of .378 instead, his WAR would have shot up dramatically. And the reason for the difference between his wOBA and xwOBA is mostly due to luck. He wasn't really a 1 WAR pumpkin in 2023 is all I'm saying. If he was a 3 WARish player last year, and he actually kind of was, it makes for a different conversation when discussing an extension for him.
  10. Terminator
    If they had any balls they'd back the truck up for Snell knowing that they can just develop more prospects anyway. Burnes and Snell in the playoffs with that lineup would have a great shot to win it all
  11. Terminator
    I would like to point out that both Tom Tango and I, two brilliant baseball minds, said to ignore all the pulled ball BS the board was buying into with regard to Vlad and that his xwOBA would normalize. Sure enough, that seems to be the case. Please clap. So him sucking ass in 2023 is probably just bad luck as much as anything else. He underperformed his xwOBA by 38 points which helped crush his WAR. This year he started off similarly but it is finally starting to normalize, just like every other year in his career. I only point this out because his 2023 season seems to be one of the biggest arguments that scares people away from not wanting to extend him. But in retrospect, that season just isn't as bad as it looks, him being fat and a liability on defense aside. It was just unlucky.
  12. Terminator
    His team is really smart. Not sure how much of this was planned but it's working out great for them. s*** talk the Yankees and talk for years about wanting an extension to stay in Toronto forever. This has endeared him to the fanbase who is now willing to completely overlook his down years. Walk back the Yankee comment, double down on the extension and now he just so happens to be on one of the greatest heaters of his career. The fans are hellbent on resigning this guy now and he's putting up the numbers to justify a big extension. Good chance he gets it.
  13. Terminator
    Doesn't seem like the injury concerns and diminished stuff are worth the 2 extra years of control they are getting
  14. Terminator
    For the love of god please trade Chris Bassitt
  15. Terminator
    Surely they will get under it, especially if they want to compete next year. They are so damn close.
  16. Terminator
    Trade Bo and sign Kim or Adames; the classic mock offseason switcheroo
  17. Terminator
    Don't forget the 10 year, 300 million dollar Vlad extension.
  18. Terminator
    Yeah and I would have him there to start next year too. He needs to be 2025 SP depth IMO. If he's in the rotation to start the year that doesn't bode well for our chances to contend.
  19. Terminator
    Solid 84 win team
  20. Terminator
    So he's the son of a former Astros legend? Well if you don't say....
  21. Terminator
    Yeah in this market they should definitely be shopping all 4 of them. All would be desirable and net a nice return. But at the same time, none of the four have a ton of surplus value, nor are they irreplaceable if you just take their AAV and sign a similar player in FA. It's the rare moment where they can build the farm system and then theoretically compete in 2025 by turning around and using the money to sign FAs. Heck, it might be the ONLY way to compete in 2025. New FAs without much drop-off with new AAA and AA prospects ready to contribute on top of it.
  22. Terminator
    Wow that’s a nice haul. Never heard of Wagner but after looking him up he’s more than just a throw in. Great trade.
  23. Terminator
    Last I read was that the M's were paying his entire salary. But even so, don't forget that Kikuchi is likely to move too.
  24. Terminator
    2025 will be Ross' Last Stand I cannot wait to see what he does with 75 mil AAV worth of FAs as he blows the doors off the payroll in an attempt to turn this team into a wild card contender The playoffs will be easy to make and thankfully so will those luxury tax payments (thanks Dipoto!)
  25. Terminator
    Cot's says we are about 6.8 Mil over and that includes all of the trades up until Turner. This gets us right there and then we we trade Kikuchi we will be comfortably under it. Ross is gearing up for his big spending spree this offseason as he goes all in on 2025.
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