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Terminator

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Everything posted by Terminator

  1. Terminator
    Is Vlad seen as better than Matt Olson was when he signed his extension? Olson was coming off of a 5 WAR season and entering his age 28 year. Vlad will be coming off a similar season and will be entering his age 26 season. Vlad will be able to get more than Olson but it's a good baseline.
  2. Terminator
    I hear you. Analysts often get blown away by the size of contracts. Sometimes the reverse happens though like last year. And the market has changed since the Prince Fielder days. 1B is one of the lesser paid positions now. Matt Olson is a better comparison.
  3. Terminator
    Nice to see them finally roll the dice on a high ceiling guy like Nimmala. If we are going to run Top 5-10 payrolls I kind of like the strategy of trying to hit home runs through the farm system. We can sign 2 WAR guys whenever we want.
  4. Terminator
    I think Passan is right in that the team should wait for FA to play out and try and extend him after Alonso signs. Start negotiations at the beginning of February. I also wonder if he'd be interested in a deferred contract which would superficially pump his number up and also technically make him the highest paid 1B. Not sure how to calculate the deferrals out but let's say he technically got 10 for 300, but enough of it was in deferrals so it was actually 10 for 200 for CBT purposes. Adjust those numbers how you see fit but I wonder if something like that could help make it work for both sides?
  5. Terminator
    Yeah maybe that's wrong. I think I read that on Fangraphs within the past year or two but maybe the narrative is changing. It's hard to quantify too because of a poor team's player hits FA he's guaranteed to be gone.
  6. Terminator
    Nope. It seems like the online fan narrative is that he will want 300M and the team will want to come in under 200. Fans seem to land on 240ish or so? I think the casuals are okay with higher and the stat nerds think below 200.
  7. Terminator
    I think it's very rare for players to go back to their team once they hit free agency.
  8. Terminator
    Yep and Edgar Martinez would get about 7 added or so. Both make sense as it would put Ortiz over 60 WAR, thus making him a bon a fide, but not spectacular HoFer. Edgar would be a cut above that at 72 WAR.
  9. Terminator
    They are under but they are limited on the moves they can make the rest of the year is what it sounds like to me. Can't make endless waiver claims, maybe can't call Votto up, etc. because they are close to the line and those things could push them over. That said, there aren't a ton of moves to be made at this point so it should be fine.
  10. Terminator
    It's tough to say what the prices will be. Chapman was aiming for similar and had to settle for way less.
  11. Terminator
    His 87th percentile 2B defense is holding! Up to +4 OAA on the season. Amazing transformation.
  12. Terminator
    David Ortiz would get about 10 WAR or so added to his career total.
  13. Terminator
    Of the teams not in contention I wonder how many would be if they add 40-60 mil to the payroll this upcoming offseason? That would add several more. This doesn't mean the Jays are any good, it just means that most teams can spend their way into wild card contention in the new playoff format.
  14. Terminator
    Nothing franchise changing but that's a good haul given the rental slop we gave up.
  15. Terminator
    Those aren't 50/50 coin flips though. Gausman is probably a 3+ WAR pitcher. Bo is probably a 3 WAR SS. Springer probably puts up 2 WAR. Vlad probably hits wRC 140+.
  16. Terminator
    This is true, with a good, doesn't even have to be great, offseason they could contend for a Wild Card. This is true of the majority of teams every year now unless you are one of the scum franchises like the Rockies. I think people are conflating could contend for a wild card with whether or not they should.
  17. Terminator
    I always knew they were World Series contenders
  18. Terminator
    They could do the whole kitchen sink approach to 3B again. Only instead of planning on playing Turner 40 games at 3B use Vlad. Between him, Barger (assuming he shows something the rest of the way), Clement and Orelvis they could get league average production there. But yeah I would be interested in what a full season of 3B would like like for him. He's -10 to -15 at 1B for god knows why. Might not be much worse at 3B.
  19. Terminator
    Would be good to see Barger have a strong finish to the year. I'm amazed at some of his swings on inside fastballs.
  20. Terminator
    Soto is ridiculous. I cringed while typing his name out. It's not happening. Forgive me. But in this new era of Jays ball we do sign top FAs pretty consistently now. Springer (6 for 150), Gausman (5 for 110), Ryu (4 for 80), traded for Berrios and extended him immediately (7 for 131), Bassitt (3 for 63). We also paid pretty good money for a RP in Chad Green and hand out 1 year 10M-ish deals all the time. Even last year we were among the biggest spenders in AAV we just spread it around. So with 60 mil to spend before we hit the luxury tax and the team targeting older prospects, I think it's a pretty reasonable assumption to think that we will be players in FA this year. We also traded enough guys to get just under the luxury tax and the team seemed to purposefully do that which could be another tell. Whether the team should spend is an entirely different discussion and I agree with you on the team being in limbo. But they do seem to want to try and win in '25 so I think discussing the FAs that aren't Soto is somewhat realistic.
  21. Terminator
    It's hard to fathom the team signing Soto but if they did I could see a scenario where they go after a guy like Scherzer. Blow past the CBT but only for a year.
  22. Terminator
    I eyeballed it and with really rough arb estimates we will have about 180M on the books heading into next year. The CBT threshold will be about 241 mil. We probably have 50-60 mil to spend.
  23. Terminator
    Yeah I was looking into his defense to figure out why he sucks so bad. I think it might be due to plays involving the pitcher? Like he can't feed the pitcher properly or something. Because on plays near the bag he's pretty good but if he has to travel away from the bag (which would require a throw to the pitcher) he's ass. Also, is he really the best at scooping? It's weird because he doesn't look that bad at third. So if he's going to be a -10 to -15 1B every year he might not be much worse at 3rd.
  24. Terminator
    Yeah probably so but even if you play him full time and his play suffers he still puts up above average starting catcher value with the potential for more. Last year is a good example. His defense is really really good. OR, just play him less and play your s***** backup more and you still come out with above average catcher play.
  25. Terminator
    Lol it would be ridiculous but let's say they do some of that stuff. -Sign Bregman tier 3B. -Sign one of the pitchers. -Spend 5 mil on a couple of relievers each. Trade a buffalo boy for another. Dumpster dive the rest to go with the slop we already have. -Forego a LF signing and platoon Loferpido and Schneider in LF. Probably don't lose that much. -Just roll with Kirk and dumpster dive the other C. -Sign an okay DH. That's probably a wild card contender. I mean it's still insane because you are talking about spending big bucks just to get to wild card contender status. But I think that's where we're at.
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