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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    He hit something like .300 .370 .590 in 70 games. One weird thing was that he hit 5 homers in 6 aaa games, and 1 in 2 mlb games. Projection is based on minor stats and they take into account park and league factors. I believe the Eastern leagues both in double a and triple a, are tougher for a hitter then the western leagues. Also he's 22, so 22 to 23 they'd project some growth. Roberts is basically projected to continue doing what he has already done in MLB. System isn't perfect though so his high projection could be a bit of a quirk from his crazy week in aaa and mlb. I'm not sure. Never dived into the details so don't listen too much to me, but maybe someone more knowledgeable will chime in.
  2. Olerud363
    Is Otto Lopez missing? Didn't see him or am I blind? Hopefully they can get value for the Catchers even though none have had a full year with good counting stats in the last 2.
  3. Olerud363
    He was a switch hitter but not sure if he had a strong side to platoon. Digging a bit deeper maybe it was a fiasco that cost the Reds a division title. Holy f*** yes. it was the greatest Fiasco ever The Reds had Eric Davis and Dave Parker. Davis was unquestionably ready by 1984 having torn up aa and aaa. By today's standards he would of been a super prospect. He played 50 games in 84 and 85 but was sent down to the minors for long stints. Struggled a little in 85 but probably would of been a 4 orf 5 WAR player over 150. I don't think he was injured those years. Without Rose, could have moved Parker to 1b (even though he was still a good outfielder) and played Davis full time. Instead Eric Davis missed a couple hundred games even though he was clearly ready. That probably cost Cinci 3 wins a year in 1984 and 85, and it mattered in 85. Yes Pete Rose 84/85 Played more than Eric Davis 84/85. Wow.
  4. Olerud363
    Too young to remember as well, but stats-scouting it, looks like he did bounce back after the -1.7 WAR season and posted 2 +0.8 WAR seasons after the bad one, and had a couple of positive WAR seasons before the bad one. So 4 of the 5 years between 40 and 44 he was worth playing. Chasing records but could still help a team as a part time player.
  5. Olerud363
    Some other interesting things... according to Steamer Catchers are all under-rated -- all 4 of Jansen, Kirk, Moreno and McGuire are projected as 2-3 WAR guys. Teoscar and Gurriel are over-rated -- more like 1.5 WAR guys according to Steamer Grichuk is strangely under-rated -- also projected for around 1.5 WAR
  6. Olerud363
    They also are projecting 142 games for almost everyone (125 for the Catchers) So Bo and Vlad lose about 0.6 WAR because of that. Vlad, Semien, Bo, and Springer are all projected at about 4 WAR (Vlad highest at 4.5, Semien 3.7) Ray, Berrios, Manoah, and Ryu are all projected at about 3.5 WAR (Ray highest at 3.7, Matz is at 2.5) There is not a lot of difference between top 4 starters and top 4 position players. So losing 2 of our top 8 players. However they are projected as 3.5ish WAR guys, so you can make up most of the projection by finding a couple of 3 WAR guys. Just glancing at Red Sox/Yankees/Rays it appears they still have more depth then we do
  7. Olerud363
    The good seasons mean that while players like Vlad, Bo, Teoscar, Manaoh, and a couple others won't be projected to repeat, they will be projected to be way better in 2022 than they were projected in 2021. And actually Bo and Gurriel should be projected to be about the same or a bit better, as he didn't even hit their lifetime rates. Though Bo not be projected for 160 games. Have any projection systems been updated with 2021 Stats?
  8. Olerud363
    On the other hand it also shows you don't need to score 200 runs more than you give up and have an MVP, Cy Young, and 7 WAR lottery pick to win. And whos to say if Jays make the playoffs they are not the ones getting beat by a lesser team in a 5 game series? Create a team that is projected to score 100 runs more than they give up, aim for 90 wins 5 years in a row and some year things will break right. 2021 Jays were a 100 win talent that won 91, I can't emphasize enough that 'the wins' Semien and Ray provided were wiped out by luck and bullpen, thus replacing half of Semien and Ray's wins, fixing the bullpen and having better luck will put them right back at 90-95 wins, and if they do that 3 or 4 years in a row good luck will hit one year.
  9. Olerud363
    No. It's likes saying 'Michael Vick was suspended for animal cruelty', or even 'Michael Vick was suspended for violent acts against an animal' He used the word 'domestic violence', he literally described it as literal as possible. He used the word violence, violence is bad. The equivalent of saying 'Michael Vick was suspended because of a disobedient dog', would be 'Ozuna was suspended because of a disobedient wife'. And he did not say anything close to that.
  10. Olerud363
    lol. They just won a series where their pitching staff gave up 5 runs a game. Starters went 1, 1, 5 and 5 innings. Grant is right that their starting pitching staff is below average for a playoff team. Their offense and bullpen is good though. More than one way to win.
  11. Olerud363
    They are a great organization and have had some luck. They've built teams a bunch of different ways, and chase talent every way possible. They aren't afraid to tank a season, but have shown they can bounce back and go deep into the playoffs a year after a losing season.
  12. Olerud363
    They should be treated different because in one case the opposing team gets extra bases and in the other they lose bases. No one would ever purposely give their opponent a home run. However they would choose to give opposing team 2 bases instead of 3. They would choose to stop a runner from scoring. So case 2 should be handled differently to avoid punishing the hitter and baserunners. Not quite the same as a ground rule double because another player is involved and there is an edge case where he does it purposely to save a run.
  13. Olerud363
    One thing that caused the 2017/2018 collapse was Donaldson/Tulo/Travis/Aaron Sanchez/Osuna and Stroman collapsing from 20+ WAR in 2016 to like 5 in by 2018. Tulo/Donaldson onlly had 1 healthy year together, while Bautista/EE had several good years together ... Ironically, despite the fact 2017 and 2018 were losing seasons, the only year they went into it expecting to lose was 2019. I think the payroll was still very high 2018. Donaldson and Tulo played like 40 games combined, Sanchez/Stroman were garbage that year. Travis injured the entire year I believe. Osuna domestic abuse issue. In an alternative Universe the team could have had a sustained run, where Donaldson/Tulo handed off to Bo/Vlad.
  14. Olerud363
    Donaldson is signed for 50 million the next 2 years (including buy out). I think his projected value is 20 million. Don't see why you'd need to include Smith. Maybe a completely useless prospect just for show. However Grichik for Donaldson straight up is probably fair, and still maybe a risk, at least that's what the machines seem to say
  15. Olerud363
    If Ray would come back, or Scherzer would come here of course most people would take them instead of Stro. Stro isn't anybody's first choice, but he is a guy who seemed to like it here, and may like coming back... Not always possible to get the 1st, 2nd or even 3rd choice, Stro seems gettable, maybe because he is a head case he won't be the other teams first choice. Could see Toronto and Stro both being left without good partners then they come to the table and work things out.
  16. Olerud363
    I am going on and on about Kyle Seager, but no real attachment. Just a guy that I think could be available. a) I agree you may not "need" Seager because in-house (Biggio, Espinal, prospects) may be just as good but I still want him for depth, Biggio/Espinal/Prospects still play because injuries happens, I'm looking for ways to build enough depth to avoid the negative WAR crap that would be below Biggio/Espinal on the depth chart. I mean Biggio/Espinal themselves got injured and you had Lamb playing in key September games, had Joe Panic playing a bunch early for some reason. Avoid that kind of thing n 2022.
  17. Olerud363
    Just glancing at Seager's career splits it looks like he has a .333 on base against righties and .299 against lefties. Espinal is low sample size but is much better against righties. Espinal/Seager platoon based on current life time splits would be good. Espinal alone based on current lifetime stats would be very good if real... all this talk is based on the assumption that Espinal isn't real. Looking at Seager's value a 2-24 contract is perhaps fair. What would you rather have ? Seager - 2 / 24 Or Donaldson with the trade cost of getting Minn. to pay enough so he's 2/24 ? Maybe that trade cost is nothing because Donaldson is only worth 2/18 right now?
  18. Olerud363
    The problem with Groshans and Moreno are injury concerns. Without injuries they likely already would have made mlb debuts. However injuries delay development and add risk. Lopez in interesting. I'm not sure how his defense is rated, however he is Espinal ++ otherwise, younger for each level, hits the ball a bit harder, stats a bit better. If you think Espinal's hitting skill set works, then Lopez's might work even better.
  19. Olerud363
    Maybe Groshans would have to be the main piece of the deal. I mean if Chapman's bounced back he's an MVP candidate, but he was a mess last year... how do you value that?
  20. Olerud363
    No Kyle. Seems like a controversial guy. It's a risk. I don't know how to peg his value. 7 fWAR over last 3 years, but that's in 320 games played. Since Seager sucks so much maybe you could get him for 1 year -12 million or something, I doubt you could get him for 5 million, as someone suggested. He'll be projected for at least 2 WAR and that costs more than 5 million. Here is another guy the board will probably hate -- Josh Bell Big huge switch hitter with good hard hit rates but severe ground ball issues. He's like a 1.5 - 2 WAR guy at best. However maybe Dante Bichette can help him out. Another risk yes. However maybe you can get him for cheap. Plug him in as DH for 155. I've been thinking having a .270 .350 .500 DH with no D value, is better than rotating Randal Grichuk and guys who should be on the disabled list to hit .220 .300 .400 with no D.
  21. Olerud363
    Seager had 2.5 WAR in a down year, 1.5 WAR in a 60 game season in 2020, and 3 WAR in a 100 game season in 2019. He's a 2.5 WAR guy even hitting .215, who could rebound... Seager isn't the Semien replacement. You'd sign Semien back or try for Story or a big trade to replace Semien. Seager pushes Biggio back on the depth chart (and Biggio will get playing time anyway) and replaces whoever is behind Biggio and Espinal in the pecking order. It doesn't have to be Seager, but adding 2 wins with crazy depth is worth 15 million for a 90 win team. And the idea is that Rogers increases payroll so there is still money for more pitching.
  22. Olerud363
    I would like nothing better than Espinal to become an every day guy. If he really could hit .280 with a .340 on base percentage he'd have value because of his defense. The concern I have is that in 2022 baseball they'll just start coming right at him, never walk him, outfield will be positioned perfectly for him (in, slightly to oppo-field, plugging gaps) and he might really struggle. I think I read a post or article comparing him to David Fletcher, so that's not my analysis, just what I read somewhere else.
  23. Olerud363
    I'm assuming some combination of increasing payroll or acquiring players better/less risky than Biggio/Espinal/Grichuk. Sort of a bench platoon. Biggio can cover outfield/3b/2b against righties, Espinal/Grichuk against lefties. You want Biggio to get the most plate appearances (almost all against righties), Espinal seconds most, and Grichuk 3rd, try to avoid giving Grichuk 550 plate appearances by having Biggio be the injury replacement outfielder against righties. Have a real DH so you are not using these guys, or half-injured players at DH. One of my assumptions is Biggio and Espinal are really risky because of Biggio's issue with the fastball, and Espinal's low exit velocity... I'm open to arguments that both could be every day guys, I just don't see that being the consensus from what I read.
  24. Olerud363
    Don't care if it's Seager and Conforto, but on offense I'd like to see Improve DH numbers - seems like all DHs suck for some reason now, so Jays are like an above average DH even hitting like s***, still... seems like some low hanging fruit to get better DH production. Improve left/right balance - Maybe this doesn't matter, but maybe facing 100 mph right handed relievers it does.. I don't know. Make sure Biggio/Espinal is 10th man or lower, Grichuk 11th or lower -- Grichuk shouldn't get more than 300 PAs Any set of ideas that accomplishes above for the offense is great with me.
  25. Olerud363
    Espinal's exit velocity is really low I think. Laika or someone went in depth about it. It's a big red flag if I remember right.
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