Olerud363
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Everything posted by Olerud363
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lol. He's got some weird mental issue with the Red Sox. Great organization, great team, better run-differential then the Jays, one of the best-run teams in baseball. 2 MVP candidates in their prime, then some guys with upside like Dalbec and Verdugo... not saying those guys are all that, just that they will likely improve in the second half. Only wild card is Eovaldi and Whitlock... neither has an arm injury, if those 2 are healthy sox look very good for the second half.
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Red Sox moved into third and are now just 1.5 behind the Jays. While the panic and negativity on this board may be over-the-top (including my own), it isn't without a reason. Indians and Red Sox have both made up 6 games or so on the Jays in the last 3 weeks. Basically gone from a case where they were 6 behind Yankees but 6 in front of the last playoff spot, to 12 behind Yankees and 2 in front of last playoff spot (which is Tampa Bay now). That's a huge change in playoff implications.
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So why exactly would Soto not change his philosophy right now. To avoid hitting .220 ? Doesn't he have pride in his work? If he is demoralized by the terrible lineup why did he hit out of his mind after the Nationals sold everyone last year ? He hit like .350 .500 .600 in second half as they were having an historic fire sale. Oh well. Maybe protection is true. Every one thought Hernandez would protect Vlad, but predictably Hernandez was rusty when he came back, and Vlad had an awful 4 weeks, even with Hernandez there. It wasn't until Kirk started hitting that Vlad came around. Kirk. He the fat god of protection. Can never trade Kirk because no way Moreno or Janson could protect Vlad. Kirk is the only way our mentally week 80 grade hitter with 115 mph exit velocity can get comfortable.
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If they traded for Soto he could hit second and would be protected by Vlad. How would Soto hit with elite protection? I am joking a bit, but Soto is the one unicorrn that at first glance could use some protection. Super patient hitter, on a bad team, who we assume is getting nothing to hit. However on second thought he's already 'protected' by Josh Bell, who is a typical second best hitter, not like it's Tapia protecting him. And again, if pitching Soto tough, a lot of stuff of the zone, nothing to hit, makes him a .220 .370 .440 hitter, way below his career norms... why would they ever change that pattern until it stops working?
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They've been a bit lucky as to run-differential. And they have not played horrible over-all. Most people are a bit anxious, not because of their current record and performance, which is fine, but because the bullpen and starters seem super-shaky and they are a 1 week break down from being out of a playoff spot and a 2 week break down from being in trouble. In a couple of days Red Sox, Rays, Indians or Twins could all be ahead of the Jays.
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It doesn't work like that especially in this day and age. The pitching sequences and strategies are chosen to minimize a guys production. They will always use the pitching pattern that works the best, no matter where the guy is hitting. How he hits is important. They crunch all the data as to how he hits on every type of pitch and location and then choose the pitching sequence. Those little cards they have aren't just random. And even if it was true why give Bo, a mediocre hitter this year, the 'protection'. Why not protect Springer or Kirk with Vlad and see what they can do with 'Protection'.
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No he doesn't. He gets pitched the way the data says gets him out the most. If the idea is to keep him off base, because Vlad is up next, why would they pitch him in a way that raises his on base percentage by giving him better pitches to hit? Data from last year doesn't even agree with that narrative. Through 200 plate appearances hitting 4th, without Vlad behind him, he hit slightly better then other spots. So actually last year you could argue that they pitched him tougher with Vlad behind him, to keep him off base via hit which is the main way he gets on base.
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Vlad seems to have some issue with hitting 2nd... really need to get passed that. Really should be Vlad 2, Kirk 3 most games. Or maybe move Kirk to 2. Clog the bases up lol. That's OK. Let Vlad/Teo/Bo unclog them.
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Cito Gaston - Pull dat ball. Laika - Pull dat ball. Tapia - Screw you. Hit dat ball where it's pitched.
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In the back of my mind I just wonder if he's injured... Maybe the splitter just isn't breaking the same as it was earlier. Seems so weird that he went from untouchable to getting knocked around so quickly.
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Would not be surprised if there are multiple TJs this year. This will be number 2.
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It didn't help that the 2-1 ball was called a strike, same location was called a ball for Kikuchi. First couple of innings I've watched all weekend. I guess from what I read it's been going on all weekend, but frustrating to watch it live.
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Phases of Mike Wilner Positivity 1. Jays only 1.5 games behind Yankees 2. Jays on pace for 97 wins. 3. Jays still third in AL 4. Jays still holding a playoff spots. 5. Don't panic, Jays only 2 games out of a playoff spot 6. (After July 2nd Rays sweep, after Rays win 12-2 on Canada Day)... 4 games out of a playoff spot, still half a season left. 7. 8 games out of a playoff spot at trade deadline. 'Jays in between can't justifying buying or selling' 8. Watching Rays/Red Sox/Indians playoff games 'Jays will be here next year, a young team this good can't be held back'. 9. Gaussman Tommy John - a risk you have to take, 45 million on the payroll for Tommy John guys, but Shapiro's a smart guy, he'll figure it out.
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You do realize that the Jays could be a few games out of a playoff by July second? They are only 2 games ahead of the last playoff spot. A poor homestand against Sox and Rays could put them a few games out of a playoff spot with the Indians not having to play hard teams. A stinker in the Canada Day game, and double header the next day will tank attendance the rest of the year.
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Jays will be out of it Canada Day July 1st the next 10 days will be terrible. Playoff teams will be Red Sox, Rays and Indians. Rays will do a 5 game sweep including a double header sweep July 2nd. The effect on revenue will be catastrophic, as between June 17th and July 3rd big crowds will be exposed to traumatic losses, and watch the team lose even their expanded playoff spot. This is a franchise changing 2 weeks. The big crowds will leave in extreme shock and dissapointment. Attendance will crater the second half and the end of the Bo/Guerrero era has happened. The good news is the attendance the next 10 years will not be enough to support 80 million contracts to the likkes of Ryu, the next iteration of the Blue Jays will have to be a low budget one. Shapiro should resign end of this year so the new management can get maximum value for Bo/Guerrero and finally do a Rays style build.
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Most of the debate with LTBF was whether Vlad was slumping because of timing or poor swing decisions. I only saw his last two at bats but in his 4th at bat, a strikeout he was less aggressive out of the strike zone and even took a couple of strikes, which is OK if they weren't what he was looking for. He eventually struck out but swung at a good pitch. From what I have seen lately he's been taking more pitches and swinging at better pitches. Most people don't hate Vlad but just have super high expectations based on his minor league numbers and 2021 and the '80' hit tool. No expects Bichette to be patient and take close pitches, no one expects Biggio to hit 3 barrels a game, but they expect it out of Vlad, and rightly so given his talent. It may be unfair but it's kind of like Vince Carter. At some point he showed flashes of being the next Michael Jordan and it was reasonable to expect 35 point games regularly and it got frustrating when he was stuck at 20 point games and the team was slumping.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)
Olerud363 replied to Grant77's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
He's a consultant with the NY Yankees and helps their advanced analytics team prevent losses like last nights Jays loss. -
If you are saying he is "trying" to hit .350, but hits really hits .280 with 10 homers he could hit .260 with 25 homers you might be right. But if he really could hit .350 or even .320 with 10 homers he's probably better off doing that. https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/AL/2010.shtml 2010 Blue Jays. The greatest pull dat ball team of all time, kept the bases unclogged and the ball pulled, hit 257 homers and got outscored by a Minnesota team with 115 less homers and a Tampa team with 100 less homers. And Boston and NY outscored them by 100 with 50 less homerrs... Maybe Cito and Murph just gave 'pull dat ball' a bad name, because they also wanted the guys to be real aggressive. Don't wait around. Don't clog the bases. Don't let the team on base percentage get much over .300. The Jose Bautista 'pull dat ball' with 100 walks approach is a different story.
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Yeah that's pretty extreme. Jose Bautista pre 2010 was 35% pull rate, and 50% 2010 forward.
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Cito Gaston - pull dat ball Paul Beeston - pull dat ball and get a track team to break up the double plays Devers/Martinez/Bogaerts - hit to all fields and hit .330 combined (will it last?)
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Hard to separate the two because as a manager he was still like a second hitting coach. He didn't get fired because of his in game decisions, but because of his sour relationship with some players and his inability to put together a top tier offensive team after 1993. By 1997 he had a historically bad offensive team. In 2001 just bad, 2009/2010 mediocre. And he certainly took credit if a hitter did good (Bautista for example), but would never take responsibility if they didn't meet expectations (Olerud 95, Wells 2009, Lind/Hill 2010). I'm still a bit skeptical of 'pull dat ball' seems like a good way to make a .280 hitter into a .260 hitter. I guess we will see. Best offensive team I remember (93) had great pure hitters and other than Joe Carter did not 'pull dat ball'. Though I guess they probably did pull dat ball in 2015. I just picture Vladdy and Bo hitting .250 fitty combined... with 85 homers, instead of .300 with 80 homers.
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His minor league stats also indicate he's an OK hitter. Biggio is a .250 .370 .420 minor league and .235 .350 .400 major league hitter. The minor league stats suggest the major league stats are accurate.
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General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)
Olerud363 replied to Grant77's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
He lost what was a valuable brand. Would have been better off continue to build his own site as it had great traffic for a couple of years around 2013/14. I don't totally fault him, for giving it a go at a real newspaper, he should have been careful to keep the rights to his blog in case things didn't work out, which they didn't. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)
Olerud363 replied to Grant77's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
He was probably such an arrogant out of touch prick, that he thought the name "Andrew Stoeten" is something people would follow, but it was the DBJF blog, with his partner that they followed, not him. Mike Wilner -- there's a name you follow, even if just to be annoyed by him. Andrew Stoeten not so much. -
General Blue Jays Discussion Thread (2022)
Olerud363 replied to Grant77's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
What's the story? He's upset because they want to use the roads to drive to the ballpark? Still lol at how Stoeten apparently lost the 'Drunk Blue Jays' brand for like a 1 year sting at National Post or something, then they canned him but he never got the brand back. He's probably too much of a moron to understand how valuable that was. Everyone new that name "Drunk Blue Jays fans". Even my wife knew it. What an idiot. He somehow from a guy you read everyday, even if just to hate him to someone I never hear of outside of annoying tweats.