Olerud363

There was a point a few weeks ago where Gaussman's era was like 5-5 3.30 or so and he was coming off of a rough patch, and Manoah's was like 9-1 2.20 or so with good peripherals. Difference between them in conventional stats has closed a lot in a few weeks, and Gaussman has increased his lead in advanced stats.

Not bait at all. I honestly haven't looked deeply at Baltimore's minor league system, other than knowing they have 9 or 10 top 100 prospects. A glance at it indicates they have a lot of left-handed hitters in the minors, a really good pitching prospect (who is injured). A few points 1. Baltimore is showing signs of being a really good organization and good organizations can come quick (TBR 2008, Houston 2015) 2. I also think the park that requires a 400 foot bomb with a launch angle of 25 to get out in left (even Vlad/Stanton/Judge 400 foot liners are probably singles) but 350 foot popups to get out to right could be a factor. 3. Related to point 1 they may have really good major league scouting which can be important. 4. They have a very good bullpen which will shorten games in playoffs. Remember Cleveland 2016? One play from winning the world series but take a look at the starters that beat the Jays in 2016. Bauer was injured and outside Kluber they didn't have a dominate starter but got through the ALCS easily and were one swing from winning the World Series. Just a good pitching dev organization, but it wasn't obvious before that ALCS.

Baltimore. They have the deepest minor league system in baseball and if they decide to start some clocks on a couple of guys could be a real wild card. Gunnar Henderson for example appears to be ahead of where Bo Bichette was in 2019 (way ahead). Quite capable of pulling a Bo 2019. Not sure who, of their other 9 top 100 prospects are ready to contribute now, but every possibility Orioles (if they choose) get huge additions going into September. Edit: Looking at the minor league numbers Baltimore appears to have placed a premium on minor league on base percentage and patience, also have great left right balance on the major league roster and throughout the minors (they are trying to take full advantage of their gimmicky park, by having left handed line-ups with the short right and long left)

Baltimore, Seattle and Tampa Bay.

Both are hitting almost exactly at their career averages. Both are having an average season for them selves. It would have been nice for 2022 Vlad to be a permanent thing and it still may be.

In 2023 three of the four highest paid players, Springer, Berrios, Ryu could be dead weight, one of them has a 100% certainty of being dead weight. A good 2023-25 depends on Springer being healthy and productive and Berrios bouncing back.

Aren't the advanced stats on his pitches all way down this year? I think that, in combination with something about his arm angle indicates he may have an injury, or at least something has changed. Why would we expect his old results when the movement on his pitches has changed? Unless you think that is just a random thing and will come back. Note: I'm just repeating what I've heard others on the board, who look into things more deeply then me, say about his advanced pitch metrics... if I'm wrong on that let me know.

One of the most depressing thing that has happened in the last 18 months is limp bat syndrome. Hit Martin, then Groshans, now Moreno. Orelvis has escaped it at the cost of becoming a .210 hitter with a 25 hit tool, which is probably just as bad. There is a different world where we keep Stroman (instead of essentially exchanging him for Berrios), and the above 4 don't get hit by limp bat syndrome, then you have 'the waves' coming... But 'the waves' aren't coming... depressing.

I don't get this 'we'll make playoffs but go nowhere'. The thing to be worried about is missing the playoffs, while a couple of teams with 1/2 the payroll (Baltimore, Cleveland, Tampa Bay) get in and long term payroll and development problems become apparent which will hurt for years. The top 2 starters, lineup and bullpen is as good as last year. If the problems the Jays have are fixable or partly bad luck they will have every chance (within the luck of the playoffs) of doing fine in the playoffs. Another way of looking at it is over the next 50 games they have to beat out some of Minnesota, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Baltimore, Seattle and Chicago. They essentially have to come in top half of those teams. If they do it's not a complete disaster, then they play one of those teams in a 3 game series with Gaussman/Manoah starting 2 of the games. They's also played Houston well, and NY is a mess, so conditional on making the playoffs, they are probably in a good position (within luck of the playoffs) to do fine. If they things really go off the rails they don't make the playoffs.

Over/under on how many hard hit fly ball outs, that are homers in 29 other parks the jays hit? I say 2. The park is bizarre now but good chance no right handed hitters on either team hit any homers this series. Left handed hitters yes, or righties if they ignore Cito and Laika and don't pull dat ball but try to pop it towards the warehouse. How many 110 mph 19 degree line drives will Vlad hit that are caught at the 399 sign? How many regular homers will Bo, Espinal, Chapman and all hit that are 385 foot routine catches? Bo and Espinals weekend homers would have been routine fly outs at the new Camden. Not sure about the other homers in the series. I think Kirk's pulled homers will be routine fly outs there, Kirk's opposite field ones will still work. Of course if Vlad or Teo hit's it 440 that will work still... but will be an interesting series.

Wasn't the Vlad and Bo contract starting point said to be 10/300 with some saying that wasn't enough? What am I missing here? Riley came up in 2019, I assume is not super-two (unlike Vlad), is better than Bo and Vlad but a bit older. If you use some career fWAR most recent weighted more and consider age and position then Vlad is about the same as Riley, or maybe a bit better if you ding Riley for age and Bo is less. So Vlad 10/225 and Bo 10/170 maybe? I think most people would be for that.

Honestly if this is really an ESL speaker just wanting to talk some ball, then the thread isn't terrible. If it's a guy pretending to be ESL then should be shut down right away, because he's being a jerk, kind of making fun of ESL. It's kind of like the Todd thing. Was Todd a real guy expressing real opinions? Then don't be a jerk to him. Or a troll pretending to be awkward? If the latter then shut it down. Guess it's hard for mods to tell sometimes.

lol. This silly thread naturally fades away without any government intervention. Then the government intervenes to try and regulate the thread and it's back. hmmmmm...

Rowdy Tellez and Teoscar Hernandez both had horrible seasons at 22. Tellez hit like .220 with 5 homers in Buffalo in a full year. Tellez hit worse at 22 in aa, then Orelvis is... Really not that uncommon for guys to have terrible seasons somewhere along the line, even guys who end up successful.

lol... some people will still think he has a special skill here ... I looked it up and I guess he does this year... killing it with risp... not that I personally believe it's a special skill, just 100 at bat variation, but he is killing it with RISP this year.

So excited about the 2003 Blue Jays before the season Phelps - 5th deck power, 2nd Delgado Hinske - rookie of the year O-Dog - best 2b since Alomar Wells - Started performing at 23 Woodward - Supposedly a great ss identified by the moneyball system Frank Cat - like a left handed Molitor Delgado - still around Kevin Cash - looked good Shannon Stewart - still around Looked like such a good line-up.... did win 86 games but then that iteration of the team collapsed with so many disspapointing. Phelps went from next Delgado to traded for a no-name in like 18 months.

I go on about this endlessly but the story of Johny is so f***ing bat-s*** crazy that if it ever happened today there would be riots and Cito would be jailed, or sued. I mean f***, if I was Olerud I might think of trying to sue Cito for mal-practice and 100 million in career lost earnings. OK. Johny O number 3 prospect in 1990 Juan Gonzales #4. Should have gotten them the other way right? I mean Johny O was a good platoon player and had a couple of nice full time years contending for batting titles but Gonzales was a legend 2-time MVP, 150 RBI guy? Lifetime Gonzales 35.8 fWAR, Olerud 57.8. The years they were both playing at their best 93 and 98 Olerud destroyed Gonzales 8 WAR to 5. NOW HERE IS THE BAT-s*** CRAZY THING. !996. 19f***ing96 John Olerud - has-been, washed up, non-rbi platoon guy, sat for Jacob Brumfield, only 469 PAs, told to retire by Cito Gaston Juan Gonzales - Wins MVP, rbi-superstar, clutch, hier to Joe Carter. Gonzales only beat him 3.5 to 2.6 despite 100 more PAs. They were almost the same per PA, with Olerud at his "worst" and being benched, and Gonzales given MVP. Good god Cito was a f***ing maniac.

I mean if Moreno is the number 1 prospect in baseball what kind of value does that put on Kirk? Who is only 1 year older than Moreno and is already hitting for power in the majors, with the same average Moreno has in the minors, and with a better k/bb. Kirk's defensive rating on fangraphs is about +5. However he has only caught 50 games, and DH'd 25. DHing give a negative score so in the 50 games caught maybe his defense is more like 7 or 8. So if he could catch as much as Buster Posey has you could extrapolate his D to like 20. And is offense is brought down because he has only played about 75% of the time. He has 75% of the plate appearances Bo or Vlad does. Let's say you gave him a full workload. Say catching 130 games and DHing 20, hitting 2nd or 3rd. What is his WAR if he plays at his current level. Probably about 7 or 8. He is only 23. He could improve from here. So if Moreno is the best prospect in baseball what is Kirk?

He must have Joe Carter like RBI skills. On track for a 30 110 season. Final numbers may look very Carterish. Some guys just have that skill. I mean it can't possible be that 160 games in the clean up spot leads to 100 rbis for anyone who can get 150 hits and 30 homers. It has to be special RBI skills....

Well... nobody would have cared if Dickey was a bit better and Jays had won in 2014 (2013 was a complete disaster and they wouldn't have won no matter what Dickey did). In trades like the Dickey trade the best outcome is for the win-now team to win-now and the other team to win in 4 years. Since both the Mets and the Jays won in 2015, and syndergard and Dickey both helped those teams that year, the trade did nothing to accelerate the Jays timeline. In fact if that trade wasn't made, Thor-god would have pitched in ALCS game 4 instead of dumpy old man, and maybe it would have been a Cubs/Jays world series in 2015. If Champman is 4 WAR this year and next, and Jays make the playoffs, no one will care if the other guy helps the As to the playoffs in 2025.

Well you are comparing a 22-24 year old short stop to a 31-33 year old left fielder's best 3 year run. And Bo already lost his batting spot to a really slow catcher and will likely be moved down further if current trends continue. I mean Bo was put behind Kirk after Kirk was good for like 6 weeks. Olerud was hitting .400 into August and still behind Carter. So, yes, Bo is a disappointment, but team is reacting and diminishing his role a bit, and will continue to do so if he continues to struggle. No special treatment. As a side note the decision to move Bo down was Schneiders, so maybe Montoya would have become a Cito like problem if he won... I mean maybe in 2026 a 40 million a year Bo with a .290 on base percentage and negative d-rating would have 720 plate appearances hitting second at short stop cuz Charlie was loyal.

Carter is so over-rated even the people that know he's over-rated like you and me, over-rate him. I read your post and thought, that's a great comparison... then I checked the numbers. From 91-93 Carter's wOBA was 120, 108, and 105, from 2020 to 2022 Teo's was 142, 132 and 119. Teo is way better. Problem is that Teo lost 100 games in the Covid season, and seems to be injured 30 games a year which dampens his numbers. Carter's skill was that he was healthy and loved. I think Randall Grichuk is a better comparison. Imagine a Grichuk who is super healthy, and plays as well as he can for 160 games hitting third, then gets "established", and they never move him from the 3rd spot. And he stays super-healthy in the third spot forever, even as he starts having bad Grichuk seasons. That's Carter.

Olerud and Candy Maldonado were both better hitters in 92. Carter was good in 1991, but like the 10th best player on the 92 and 93 teams.

He loved Tabby, Sprague, Kevin Millar and a few other white guys so he wasn't super racist. I think he had a warm spot for mediocre right handed hitters. It's pretty simple. Cito himself was a mediocre right handed hitter. He was a guy pretty much like Sprague or Carter. He didn't have as many good seasons as Carter, so almost exactly like Sprague, a guy who had one good season. Then he struggled lost his playing time and career ended. Probably bitter. Loved to platoon, just to give terrible right handed hitters 250 more PAs to give them a few last chances. Loved to play Carter and Sprague all the time, even when they didn't deserve it.

No one had an issue with Henderson. He got on base. On base was a thing even back then. No one other than Cito would make the lineup out of 'respect'. When Henderson came aboard 29 of the 30 managers would have gone Henderson, Alomar, Molitor, Olerud. Speedy guy who gets on base, another speedy guy who gets on base, 2 pure hitters contending for the batting title. In 2022 the line-up would have been Henderson, Olerud, Alomar, Molitor... but they weren't advanced enough to hit a slow guy 2nd... they were advanced enough to hit the fast guys with .400 on based percentages ahead of the fast guy with a .330 on base percentage (except Cito).