Olerud363

Yes and No. It wasn't as advanced as today as they wouldn't have put a power hitter first or second but any other manager would have gone Alomar, Molitor, Olerud. No one would have hit Molitor 6th out of 'respect' for the other guys. Line-ups were fast guy who got on base first (Alomar), bat control guy second (Molitor), and best hitter third (Olerud). No one hit their 5th and 6th best hitters 1st and 4th out of 'respect'. Any other manager would recognize that Olerud was a 5 WAR guy and play him and never platooned him. Cito was a moron and a mean spirited dude who played favorites.. And yes, I realize Pat 'Tabby' Tabler, and Joe Carter loved him... you would to if they gave you 200 at bats when you couldn't hit anymore, or hit you 3rd for 5 striaight years even as you became a sub replacement player

Joe Carter and Devo would have been great 5th and 6th hitters. Cito cost Joe Carter a chance to drive in 140 and an RBI title and Devo to drive in 100 with his 93 line up decisions. Devo was great especially in 91 and 93. .340 on base, 40 doubles, 15-17 homers, 35 steals at a great rate and best defense in the game. Just should not have been lead off. I guess the argument was at the time is that hitting him lead-off 'boosted' his confidence and thus his numbers. I once suggested why not do that for Kevin Pillar? Everyone told me I was a f***ing moron... so I guess 'the boost' theory isn't true, or at least people here don't think so. Maybe hit Tapia lead-off for 160 games next year just to test it... (kidding)

There is another Peackock game in 2 weeks, and then one in September against the Pirates.

They've beaten Cole, Verlander, Ohtani, Bieber, Wheeler but can't hit lefties with change-ups I guess.

Offense is down a bit and it seems they don't hit the pitchers you think they should. Like this week left handed s*** ballers have held us to 1 or 2 runs. They hit Wheeler, Grienke and the hard throwing right handed KC reliever hard. I remember they hit Bieber hard in a double header then got shut down by a s*** baller in the second game of the double header. Beat Cole and Verlander early in the season but lost games I thought they should win. I don't know. Maybe just selective memory but some of the big offense games seem to come agains good pitchers, while you sit down for a 14-3 against a s*** baller and they are losing 2-1 in the seventh before you know it.

If anybody had said at the beginning of the season that Kirk, Espinal, Romano, Manoah, and Springer would be all stars we would have thought the Jays were on track for 120 wins. AND Gausman has the teams highest fWAR but isn't an all star because of bad luck with the W/L. And Stripling is back to his Dodgers level. It's hard to reconcile intuitively how the record and the runs scored/runs against isn't better. Even the worst player, Tapia, is a .275 .300 .390 guy now, and that is OK for the worst player. I guess Ryu - disaster + TJ Berrios - disaster Kikuchi - disaster Vlad/Bo - mediocre by their own standards. Bullpen - core guys seem solid (Romano, Mayza, Garcia, Cimber, Phelps) but not amazing. I guess outside of those the rest of the bullpen must be a complete disaster.

France is an awesome player, but isn't that far ahead of Vlad this year, and Vlad was way better last year. All star isn't just based on a half season. A homerun title winner who was second in MVP and is on track for a .270 35 100 season is an all-star. Now if France hits well all year and through next year and Vlad doesn't go back to 2021 level then in 2023 you can argue France should be the all-star. In my opinion all star should be loosely based on the last couple of years, not just the half season. Of course extreme half season things, for example a Bellinger level collapse, or a guy comes out of no where to hit .340 with 30 homeruns in a first half should be considered... which they are.

Judge isn't swinging at everything. He's still walking this month and has a .350 on base (before tonight).

Not sure what is up with lettheballfly. Don't know what is up with Vlad either. You are right. He hasn't walked this month. That is insane. He is hitting worse than Tapia for 2 weeks. His best months April and June of 2021 he walked 20 and 17 times. Vlad should be walking 15-20 times a month. What is going on here?

I know that. It is a runs above average. Just saying that on fangraphs Olerud is ahead when looking at their 'offense only' statistic. Though it does include base running. And Olerud gets an edge in base running even though he is super slow he just didn't do anything stupid ever. Kind of telling that Olerud is ahead in baserunning, defense, and k/bb ratio even though he was less athletic (well he had great hand eye coordination and intelligence, but was way less explosive then Vlad).

No. Cecil Fielder had a weird career. People were pretty stupid up to the mid 90s and there are all kinds of stories of guys losing half their career or more for no reason. Fielder made it to the majors at 21, and did good enough, but never given more than 200 PAs then sold to Japan. Didn't get a real chance until age 26. We have no idea what Cecil would have done with 650 PAs at Vladdy's age... well maybe we do. He probably would have hit like Vladdy 2022... and actually he did about that in like 25% playing time. They really just sat him there most of the time using up service time. In 87 they sat Cecil and McGriff a lot, and lost the pennant while playing Willie Upshaw and other garbage at DH/1b. Prince and Vladdy are very close on offense. Like swithcing between .300 and home run title and .260 with 35 homers the next year. Prince Fielder and Vladdy seasons have the same vibe so far.

That's a good point, but where are you getting oWAR from? Fangraphs has Vlad (on offense) as -3.4, 2.2, 54.1 and 9.7 this year. Olerud as 9.4, 8.8, 16.6, and 65.7. Olerud was platooned and more from 94 to 96... but had a good 6 year run from 97 to 2003 Will Vlad's 5 best seasons (doesn't have to be consecutive) be better then Olerud's. Olerud's are 8.1, 8.1, 5.8, 4.6 and 4.5.

Hard for me to really picture what Vlad is. Watching him on TV 2019/2020/2022 he looks like he has a 45 "hit" tool. Like he has an average hit tool with elite max exit velocity. When I hear "elite" hit tool I think of Kirk, or Olerud. Guys with low k-rate, don't swing at a ball, don't over-swing. But they probably do it at the expense of a bit of power. I kind of wonder what Vlad would be like if he gave up on every trying to hit 118 mphers... and just toned it down a bit and tried for more contact. Like we just saw him hit a 400 foot homerun with half a swing. What if approached things more like Kirk does? Or Olerud did? Way bigger and stronger then either of those guys so could probably still crank 30 homers with a contact based approach. Not that I know anything except from watching TV, looking at fangraphs, and listening to great insight from Pat Tabler.

Vlad 1st 4 seasons (20-23) = -0.2, 0.2, 6.3, 3.1 (extrapolated) - Total = 9.4 Olerud 1st 4 seasons (21-24) = 1.4, 2.5, 3.1, 8.1 - Total = 16.1 Olerud finished with 57.3 fWAR. Will Vlad beat that? Olerud's platoon season in 1992 was better than Vlad's 2022 pace. Olerud's part time 1st 2 seasons were better than Vlad's. Olerud's MVP type season in 1993 was 2 WAR better than Vlad's 2021. Olerud is the best player the Jays have developed, has the best first 4 seasons and Vlad will have a tough time beating his career WAR total.

Right. But that didn't get him until he was 29. Fielders age 22 through 28 were about what Vlad has been at 22 and 23. Fluctuating between .260 and .300, 35-50 homeruns. Could argue that players peak at 26 so he'll still get better and improve. On the other hand Pujols had established by age 23 that he was a .330 hitter with a .359 max. Through age 23 Vlad is a .280 hitter age with a .310 max. On the other hand Pujols was probably 29 when he was 23 and didn't have a shift. But as an MLB player Vlad is so far closer to Fielder.

I mean look at the Jays numbers... They won 1 division the last 30 years and it was an instant 45k a game in the stretch drive and 3.4 million for a 89 win wild card the next year. 2003 which featured a near MVP in Delgado, a Cy Young in Halladay, and great season from Vernon Wells was horrible attendance, as was 2000 (Delgado .344 with 99 xbase hits). 2010/11 which featured an MVP caliber Bautista was bad attendance. 2019 which featured the debuts of the legacy trio was bad attendance. Maybe the new playoff spot thing will make the 85 win teams get better attendance because of the perception of winning, but I bet not. If they ever built a truly good team, that was high 90s wins a few years and won divisions they'd knock on 4 million a year again. A 85 win a year team with Bo and Vlad signed long term would get half that in attendance.

How is Prince Fielder the worse case? Prince Fielder is more like the expectation. They are very similar through age 23. What about Cody Bellinger? That is more like the worst case scenario for a guy with a ~50 homer season in his early 20s

Not sure his Dad actually swung hard at everything... This compilation shows Sr. mostly hammering pitches in the zone, and then at the end shows Sr. getting bloop hits on pitches way out of the zone, really cuts down his swing when he's reaching. And 2 nights ago Vlad Jr. did something similar and incredibly hit a 400 foot homerun with a one handed swing at a low ball. Problem I see is Vlad Jr. often swings all out on stuff out of the zone and has no chance. He should be taking these or using his emergency swing... lol. Not that I'm a hitting coach.

That's the thing. Is it really a team built around 2 super stars any more? If Bo and Vlad are not great players how does it change things going forward? Say they are really 3 WAR players then 1. The win total from 2022 to 2025 is about 5 wins a year less than we thought 2. However the payroll needed for them may be a little less then we thought. 3. If they leave after 2025 they are easier to replace then we thought. Does this change how you operate the team?

You mentioned a while ago that if Bo and Vlad are 3 WAR players instead of 5 this winning cycle is screwed anyway... I don't totally agree with that because those 4 'wins' could be made up somewhere else. However Vlad and Bo are 3 WAR players instead of 5 mainly because their swing decisions are bad. What can be done about this? I have no clue. I assume they aren't just swinging at bad pitches for shits and giggles. I guess the opposition has crunched the pitch data and figured out where their weakness is, they must know what is happening, but just can't recognize the difference between a fastball, and breaking stuff off the plate. This to me is one of the reasons why the season is such a disappointment. Vlad and Bo were supposed to have elite hit tools. Vlad was suppose to be patient with a low k rate and Bo was supposed to be able to get his bat on anything. Together they are on pace to strike out about 300 times. Just 1 year ago I thought as they matured they both might have elite contact rates and strike out half that much.

I think that's my point. The team can win without 11 WAR from short stop and first base. What if they put 35 million into facilities, coaches, various shot in the dark contracts and develop the pitching depth you have been advocating for? What if they trade Bo and Vlad in a year but put mega resources into scouting the trade, can they get Ty France / J.P. Crawford levels players back? Build a great organization and forget about the windows.

They obviously aren't 3 WAR 'ceiling players', and probably are not 3 WAR average players. Could be they are 4 WAR average. Teams without Windows or very short windows - Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, Not sure if there is anybody else... Jays have a lot of resources and maybe they need to forget about the Windows. I'd like to see them run like Boston, which I think is a comparable market. Try to put up a competitive team every year, keep the losing cycles very short, don't be afraid to trade Nomar, Manny, or Mookie Betts. Don't be afraid to lose Devers.

Ryu is coming off the books in 2024 so replacing his payroll space could compensate for Guassman's decline. Gaussman's decline probably won't be linear. He could go on like this to 35 or he could go the way of Ryu. We are really worried about losing a 3 WAR short stop and a 3 WAR first basemen in 3 years? Easily replaceable players. If they return to 2021 level the next couple of years, that is great for the 2023 and 24 teams. Moreno and Kirk could be the key players if used properly. Maybe the key is developing Moreno so that he can play 2nd or 3rd sometimes, and build around Kirk and Moreno each catching half the time. Maybe Martinez will decrease his launch angle. Maybe Howritz is a 3 WAR first basemen and you can win with those... maybe Espinal is the short stop. I don't know. Just sick of the window. We can trade prospects and watch those prospects help a team beat us in late 2023. Like Syndergard was actually the guy who was going to be ready for the stretch run of the next contending Blue Jays team... but we didn't know it.

They shouldn't buy. They should build a team that can win 81 for the next 10 years and luck will hit some year. The silver lining is that the current version of Bo and Vlad as 3 WAR players are more easily replaceable with Santiago Espinal or Ty France types... hell Howritz could be the next Ty France (admittedly France had huge power in 2019). How is there even a 'window' anymore? The Window was based on Vlad and Bo being 12 WAR combined and having to win with them... Top players this year are Manaoah, Gaussman, Kirk and Espinal. 1 year ago no one would have thought that. Need to just continually add talent and maybe make some tough trades eventually. If Bo or Vlad have to be traded, whos to say you can't get some near ready replacements? Enough with the Window. Just keep making an team projected to win more than they lose. Maybe the 'window' is even putting too much pressure on the players and driving fans crazy.

Same, my wife got a notification that they won on a Vladdy 3 run homerun. Was surprised and happy for a few minutes until I checked the box score.