Olerud363

"His swing is highly unusual with a pronounced leg kick, and a hands driven swing with a highly rotational finish. It's worked over the last two years but leads to some questions as to how he'll fare against higher caliber pitching." I guess that was written when he was just starting aa, but so far has past this test in aa and aaa. Sounds like his defense is good. It will be interesting to see how the Jays prospect list is reshuffled. Gabe Martinez and Barger had by far the best seasons, but aren't even top 10 on some lists. And if Barger is not highly rated then the Jays can't really 'sell high'. Not like teams will just look at his .310 average and want him... they all look at way more advanced stuff now.

I probably need drugs but am not on them right now. As a kid the first baseball games I watched were the end of ALCS in 85, and the last series of the year in 87, mostly just because everyone tuned into those games, so probably have PTSD from that. As soon as Romano blew the save against Baltimore I had a pretty bad feeling, even though it was statistically super-unlikely (and still is) that Baltimore will catch the Jays. As an aside Tom Henke blew 3 big saves in the last week of the season against Jays division rival, 85, 87 and 90, 87 and 90 were pretty costly. Not to diss Henke. I mean Dennis Eckersley had huge blown saves (Gibson, Alomar) that cost his team. Mariano Rivera probably has the biggest, most meaningful blown save in history 1 strike away from giving the Yankees a 4-peat, and blew it. No talks about it because Rivera was so good otherwise, though I guess had 3 blown saves in the Red Sox 2004 comeback? Anyway I am way off track, just that I've been in full panic mode since the Romano blown save... we'll see what happens.

Really? He popped a homer and is hitting .290, but even still his slugging is still only .387. Kind of hitting as would be expected.

The unreasonable and mentally weak like myself have been in panic mode since Romano blew the save Sunday. If the Orioles get within 3.5, which is potentially 14 hours or so away, then I think the reasonable can panic. There is a historical reason for that, '87. However pretty reasonable that if something happened once, even a long time ago, it is reasonable to be worried it could happen again. Also not sure how all the playoff odds thingies are calculated, but ESPN has Jays odds way higher then baseball reference. Jays odds on baseball reference have gone from 99 to 95, Orioles from <1 to about 10% in 3 days. Is it reasonable to worry about a 5% chance of Jays missing playoffs? Is the chance greater than 5% considering bullpen status and potential 'pressing' from players?

I don't know what his defense is like but what reason is there to sell a 22 year old infielder that is hitting well in the upper minors? I kind of feel like, just based on stats-scouting he's a pretty good prospect, not in the Kevin Smith tier. Like Kevin Smith had a good season at 24, but was crushed to sub-Orelvis-2022 levels as a 22 year old at aa. Barger hit well at aa at 22 and pushed himself up to aaa. Though you never know. Could just be a fluke season, with the missing 2020 and injuries in 2019 he doesn't have a lot of data.

Barger should be Jays minor league player of the year. .308 25 87 between 3 levels. No idea what Barger's defense is like but he is the same age as Groshans and just hit more homers in Buffalo in 19 minutes then Groshans did in 3 and a half months.

So far only the nut-cases give the Os a chance, but they win tonight and it's 4.5 (if we are assuming Mitch White is getting destroyed). 5.5 - only nut-cases give Os a chance 4.5 - nut-cases and negative nancies give Os a chance 3.5 - nut-cases, negative nancies, and old-timers who remember 87 give Os a chance 2.5 - Smart guys start giving Os a chance 1.5 - it's over.

So if I understand correctly that is what the players get, but who gets the rest? The home team? Or do they split it between the 2 teams as Spanky indicated? Or just add it to a general revenue sharing pool? I am trying to understand how much extra money the Jays organization would get for each playoff home game, and whether there is a financial incentive for them to have more home games.

So in that case there is no financial reason to be the home team.

What is the revenue from 3 playoff home games? Of course if Manoah starts in a wild card series it increases chances of playoff home games in later rounds. They also need to keep him in reserve in case game 162 is meaningful for the playoff race. There is still like a 5% chance it will be meaningful for Toronto and a 10% chance it could be meaningful for Baltimore. Or something like that. I mean supposedly Toronto had a 99.9% chance of making the playoffs, but that is already down to 98% in 2 days. So what are chances game 162 is meaningful? 4%? I don't think the playoff odds consider injuries, bullpen burnout, and 'pressing'. Seems people on the board have started claiming 'pressing' is a real thing. OK. So that means all the playoff odds aren't quite right. They probably assume uncorrelated events, but if pressing is real, the team being chased could start pressing, results will become correlated.

Top 3 things Olerud363 has been wrong about this year 1. Seattle Mariners average playoff team - at this point are they even a playoff team? 2. Boston Red Sox legendary franchise - What are they? Like like 60-80 now with like Eric Hosmer as the first basemen? 3. Vlad Guerrero jr most similar player Boog Powell - Who? Never heard of that guy, Boog? Doesn't sound like a real guy, most similar player to Vlad is Albert Pujols without the aging curve or Micky Mantle without the bad knee, or Johny Bench with a .320 average.

And sorry for ranting on and on over this like a crazy person, but there are so many levels of statistical tom-foolery in Grant's posts... Is Guerrero even "hot" right now? Depends what your sample size is, and if you choose the right sample size he is "HOT". I mean he is on a 14 game hit streak right? Though for the last 14 games he's not amazing. I think really close to his season average actually? SO last 2 at bats - 1/2 with a 2.000 slugging. HOT last 2 games - 2/11 for a sub .200 average NOT HOT last week - probably HOT, 3 homers, some infield singles. last 2 weeks - 14 game hitting streak, but actually pretty close to his season average. September - NOT HOT. He is still having a rough September even with his awesome last 2 at bats and 14 game hit streak. 2022 - Hitting slightly below his career average. NOT NOT HOT but NOT HOT. last 2 years - I would say HOT. When you factor in his great 2021 and 30 homer 2022 he has looking pretty good. career - Slightly below 80 hit tool projections over-all, but shown enough elite level stretches (mostly in 2021) and non-collapse 2022 that he's.. I don't know... met expectations? Or has he as compared to expectations April 2019? This is a pretty long rant, and maybe polluting the quality of this fine message board, but I don't think it's "un-hinged". Really just trying to figure out if Vlad is "HOT" or "NOT" and looking at his performance over different time scales.

FYI - for anyone who didn't see it, below is the 'non-sensical' rant Grant is accusing me of making. To summarize, in my "rant" I accuse Guerrero of... 1. Being a 9 fWAR guy through age 23 (true) 2. That guys similar to Vlad would be big guys (true Vlad is big) 3. That guys similar to Vlad would be power hitters, all right hitters, not 230, 200 k guys. 4. That Vlad (9 fWAR through age 23) should be the median of his comparison group. Perhaps point 3 is the one Grant has issue with. Where I called Vlad merely an "all-right" hitter, whereby Grant thinks he should be in a group with Micky Mantle. By all-right I mean "pretty good". Like a .280 .350 .500 hitter, but below elite, like not Tony Gwynn with 40 homerun power (though Vlad has shown that level for a couple months at a time, as Cody Bellinger has too, he hasn't been consistent with it). "Below are the players on your list career WAR through age 23. It is clear that players with 20 WAR through age 23 almost always make the hall of fame, but Vlad isn't even half that. He's only at 9. Any honest list of Vlad comparables would be guys with 7-11 WAR through age 23, 1b types, big guys, power hitters but allright hitters, not .230 200 strikeout guys. That's the list we'd want to see to get an idea what guys similar to Vlad do the rest of the way. A list of 9 WAR Vlad, and 20 WAR guys who got to 100 homers faster then he did isn't really telling us much."

Jesus H. Christ. Are you referring the recent conversation where you compared Guerrero to 9 guys who reached 100 homeruns faster than him, and had an average of about 20 fWAR through age 23 compared to Guerrero's 10? And I compared Guerrero to his baseball reference top 10 most similar players through age 23? In the more distance past I am certainly guilty of occasionally dissing Guerrero. Since 2019 he's frustrated many of us, For God's sake someone (not me) started a 'Send Vlad to Indy ball' thread which I contributed to many times. However in a saner moment I did walk back from the ledge and compared him to Gary Shefield (this was before his 2021). So my long term record of Guerrero posts does have some nuttiness but moments of clarity as well. However I suspect you are referring to our recent debate that went like this. Grant: Here are 9 players who reached 100 homers faster than Guerrero and had an average of 20 fWAR at age 23 compared to Guerrero's 10. Me: Guerrero is solid, but here are his baseball reference comparable through age 23 based on baseball reference similarity score.

No you moron. I don't have 'a hunch'. I have data that says Luis Castilla is better than Marco Gonzales. Marco Gonzales according to fangraphs is a sub-replacement player. So the fangraphs season totals include a lot of Marco Gonzales and much less Luis Castillo, thus they do not accurately reflect the talent level of the Mariners, as of today, September 21st, 2022. As you point out, other teams are in the same situation, having replaced players. However the difference between Luis Castillo and Marco Gonzales is greater then say, the difference between Kevin Bass and Trent Thornton, or the difference between Mitch White and Kikuchi. What you are essentially saying is that. a) Players get replaced at the trade deadline... but it doesn't matter the quality of the replacements.... Idiot!

Good god. The entire point is that the Mariners top 4 is Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert and Ray. Gonzales is removed because he isn't part of the top 4. If you are projecting for the playoffs, or for next year, you can remove the Ms worse pitchers, Flexson and Gonzales and replace with Castillo and Kirby. If you are projecting the Jays for the playoffs can you do the same? You can remove Kikuchi of course, but Berrios? f***. Nobody is just arbitrarily removing the Ms worse pitchers. They have literally been removed, removed because they've been replaced. Removed because in the real world transactions were made to replace them. You don't live in the real world, just the weird world of Grant. I am sure anyone evaluating the current state of the Jays, has added Bass in, in their assessment. We all have. It's just that Castillo is a better acquisition then Bass. We've all included Stripling in our assessment of where the Jays are in September 2022... just that Kirby is probably better then Stripling. The Ms as configured in September 2022 get a bit of a booost, as compared to their year long stats given new additions and development. So do the Jays, just not nearly as much.

Seattle isn't particularly strong or weak compared to expectations for a wild card team. I have no idea why he is going on about this. I guess he was playing around with fangraphs, found out they were 8th in pitching fWAR (which is probably under-rating them) and they hit .228 as a team, which is unique for a playoff team. (As an aside it is kind of interesting for 'old school' money ball fans, that when you add in homers, walks and park factor they are a above average offence). Why doesn't he just take the victory lap for his predictions about the 2022 Boston Red Sox? He was totally right about that one. He can bring up his old posts and gloat. Why the need for this Mariners thing?

The 2021 Milwaukee Brewers had an OPS+ of 92. 90 f***ING 2!!!!! They had some walks, homers and luck. They hit .233. Second last in the league. What the hell is wrong with you? Teams with a low batting average make the playoffs all the time. It happened twice last year. Of course I'm sure you'll say a team that hit .228 never made the playoffs in 400 years... well maybe, I haven't looked that closely yet, but 2021 Brewers and Yankees were worse that the 2022 Mariners in hitting for average... but league norm and park dings 2022 Mariners a bit and gets them under .230.

The 2021 NY Yankees made the playoffs with an offense as weak as Seattle's They hit .237 3rd last in the AL, with a 100 OPS+. When factoring in 2021 vs 2022 league norms and the ball park the .237 Yankees average is just as weak as Seattle's this year.

Cleveland and Tampa Bay both have worse OPS+ as compared to Seattle. As does San Diego. OPS+ isn't even a great stat. However Seattle is 5th best in the AL using that Stat, 4th out of the 6 playoff teams. Seattle is 5th in position player WAR in the AL, 8th in pitching WAR, but that is deceiving because it is weighting the low k rate of bulk starters too much while Castillo and Kirby, who may be the 1/2 in the playoffs have fewer regular season innings for Seattle. You are acting like Seattle is a historically bad playoff team, and going on and on about it, passive aggressively mentioning it in unrelated threads. They are not. They are pretty much what you'd expect from a wild card team that improved at the deadline.

Potential Triple crown + first 60 homer season in AL in 60 years, + AL homer record, + good defense, + leading league in WAR. I can't see how it is even a debate. I think people think since last year it was a debate, it should be this year, but Judge is like going to beat Vlad 2021 in WAR by 11 to 6.5.

Good God. Are we going to have to listen to 'Seattle is a mediocre team' narrative for the next 5 years? I'll admit they will take a big hit if J-Rod is hobbled given Saurez is on the DL. Those guys are both playing really well, so yes, you take any teams 2 best position players and they will be mediocre. Team has a 104 OPS+ and is in the top 4 in the AL in homers and walks. Above average offense, and obviously above average pitching.

Baltimore has the payroll space too and 8 WAR would be useful to them. lol. No way either side would bother though because of the freakshow ball park. I assume Judge doesn't want to play in that park. I wonder if the Orioles will regret creating the freakshow park? I mean there was a compromise between moving the left field fence 40 feet back and 30 feet up and keeping it the way it was. Maybe they could have moved it 15 feet back and 5 feet up? Oh well, I assume their plan is to just stack the team with left handed hitters, though watching Henderson I wonder if he'll lose 4 or 5 opposite field shots... Probably not, just get them all to pull the ball like men. I guess they'll skip Judge and go for Soto in a couple of years.

Dodgers non-Betts outfielders are their weakest position players. So for sure there is a fit there. I mean they have to also resign/replace Turner, and I guess probably hit the salary cap and stuff, and maybe 110 wins is enough so they don't need more players. But if they want to blow through the salary cap and challenge the 2001 Mariners there is a need in the outfield for them.

He had better control with the fastball. And it seemed relative to the league his velocity was just as good as Romano's. 6 years ago I don't remember top velocity being 103 like Bautista yesterday. Henke blew some big games over the years. Blown games when Blue Jays could have virtually eliminated their prime playoff competitor 1985 - Friday night against the Yankees Henke blows a chance to clinch. One out maybe even one strike away. End result - Jays win anyway the next day 1987 - Sunday or Monday - Jays have chance to go 4.5 up against Tigers with 6 to go. Henke blows it, 2.5 up with 6 to go. End result - Historic collapse 1990 - Friday night. Jays leading could go 1 up on Sox with 5 to go, Henke blows it. One behind instead. End result - Boston wins the East. 2016 - Wednesday I believe. Jays have chance to move 3 up on Orioles with 4 to play. Osuna blows it. End result - Jays tie for wild card anyway, but Thursday through Tuesday becomes a stress-fest with Jays one play from missing the playoffs at several points. 2022 - Sunday, Jays could go 8 up on Orioles with 15 to play. Romano Blows it. End result ? - Models say Jays still have 99% chance of making the playoffs. Probably the PTSD from 87 but seems 50/50 to me. Orioles probably now just focused on getting to withiun 3 by final series in Baltimore, in which case they then have a 100% chance of sweeping, and have the tie breaker. lol.