Olerud363

I did boil it down to one sentence. All I said at first was Soto is 5.9 fWAR per 162, and Bichette was 5.1. Some people think Soto should be farther ahead, so just went over the ways Soto is better and the ways Bo is better and asked if it makes sense that they are that close...

Well WAR doesn't have them on completely different levels. They've only had 2 complete seasons in the league together, 2021 and 2022 and over that span Soto is ahead 10 fWAR to 9.5. So over the 2021/22 seasons, which is 2 seasons they do deserve to be in the same sentence. In 2019 according to fWAR they were about even per game. in 2020 according to fWAR Soto was way ahead. He was having a Ted Williams, Barry Bonds on horse steroids season but it got cut short. Hitting for average - even Hitting for power - even defense - Bo is ahead just on account of so far sticking at short stop. Average short stop is more valuable then average outfielder base running - Bo Walks - Soto by 100 per year. 2 players who are even hitting for average and power, one walks 100 times more per year, one can play short stop and better defense. Does it make sense that the walks guy is 6 WAR guy, and the short stop is 5 WAR? I think people assume someday Soto ceiling is the Ted Williams, Barry Bonds on horse steroids level. He's very young still and shown that in 50 game spurts. But what is Bo's ceiling? Like improving his defense a bit and getting 220 hits 85 extra base hits hitting .320? Soto isn't Mike Trout/Barry Bonds or anything yet. The argument is based on him doing things he did in 50 games, in 150, but What if Bo does things he's done in 50 games in 150?

It's not the list people have issues with. It's your claim that players like Vlad are almost certain hall-of-famers. You are using the list in a deceptive way. 1.. The list is fact of course. 2. The players on the list are mostly hall of famers. 3. Vlad is the worst player in terms of the list criteria (he was the slowest to 100 homeruns) 4. Looking at other criteria, such as WAR, Vlad is also the worst player on the list Below are the players on your list career WAR through age 23. It is clear that players with 20 WAR through age 23 almost always make the hall of fame, but Vlad isn't even half that. He's only at 9. Any honest list of Vlad comparables would be guys with 7-11 WAR through age 23, 1b types, big guys, power hitters but allright hitters, not .230 200 strikeout guys. That's the list we'd want to see to get an idea what guys similar to Vlad do the rest of the way. A list of 9 WAR Vlad, and 20 WAR guys who got to 100 homers faster then he did isn't really telling us much. Mel Ott 33 Vladimir Guerrero Jr 9 Alex Rodriguez 26 Eddie Mathews 26 Bryce Harper 22 Andrew Jones 25 Johnny Bench 21 Miguel Cabrera 14 Tony Conigliaro 10 Albert Pujols 22

Actually he did mention Bellinger.... but Bellinger get's discounted because he was 20 months older than Guerrero when he started. Note the classic Grant technique, it's OK to include guys who were younger then Guerrero on his lists, but not a bit older. So every list Grant makes will be Guerrero and guys who were better by whatever criteria Grant is using, not Guerrero as the average of the list.

lol. Of course Grant, the greatest cherry picker on this board provides a list for which Guerrero is by definition one of the worst. He was 9th or 10th youngest to get to 100, proper way to do this is to provide the list of top 20 youngest to get to 100 homeruns so Guerrero is the average. In a previous post I gave Guerrero's top 10 comparables according to Baseball reference. Boog Powell is on the list, as was Bellinger. I think Mo Vaughn is a good one. Another guy John Olerud. Guerrero has more power obviously, but Olerud as a guy who started young, had a really big season but wasn't able to repeat it consistently (he repeated his top level season once). Speaking of Bellinger notice Grant completely ignores him. Grant thinks people troll him. Not true at all. People just are stunned at his cherry picking and call him out. If you did an honest job of finding Guerrero comparables you'd include the ones who didn't work out, make sure Guerrero is an average of any list, and probably find that most are good players, some collapse, many fade early, and maybe 1/4 make the hall of fame.

According to the baseball reference list of most similar players to Vlad JR through age 22 they don't become hall of famers without exception. Though they all have good careers and 3 are hall of famers (if you include Miguel Cabrera as a certain hall of famer). Acuna still has his story to be told, Bellinger is probably a collapse, so maybe 3/9 became hall of famers.... 6 exceptions. Hal Trosky (942.6) Ronald Acuna Jr. (942.1) Cody Bellinger (937.9) Miguel Cabrera (935.5) Greg Luzinski (934.9) Boog Powell (933.5) Eddie Murray (931.3) * Juan Gonzalez (926.5) Giancarlo Stanton (924.4) Joe Medwick (920.9) *

one of the mistakes people make is including Vlad in a group where he is by definition the worst. Like he just became the 10th youngest to hit 100 homeruns. Are the other 9 hall of famers? I can't remember. Some of them were of course, but Vlad is by definition the WORST of this group according to that criteria. Curious to see a the top 20 players similar to Vlad, which means 10 better, 10 worse, with Vlad as the median, and what became of them all. 20 hall of famers?

He has hit relatively poorly at Rogers center, great at Dunedin and Sahlen field. The dimensions of those stadiums are no different that major league parks. And in fact Buffalo has dimensions close to Progressive Field, I believe it was set up when they were associated with Cleveland. Dunedin may be 10 feet closer in right center, but just as far to left as Rogers Center. Florida is suppose to be a tough place for hitters because of humidity. I don't think Buffalo is suppose to be a great hitters park. Still, he creamed it in Sahlen and Dunnedin, just as he creamed it in those parks as a minor leaguer. If we are going to start accepting that there is such a thing as 'pressing' and weird mental states hitters get in, then I'd say Vlad's performance in minor league parks is mental, nothing to do with the park dimensions or anything. Maybe he likes it with 5000 to 15,000 seats and a low key vibe.

I just ran some quick back of the napkin calculations and Juan Soto's fWAR per 162 is 5.9 and Bo Bichette's is 5.1. 6 weeks ago people were saying Bichette+ would be needed to get Juan Soto. Like Bichette, Moreno and Tiedermann or something. It didn't really make sense from either side, but so weird how 6 weeks ago Bichette was valued at like 1/3 of Soto, or so it seemed, but now Bichette is a 5.1 fWAR player vs Soto a 5.9 fWAR and Bichette has an extra years control. I guess 6 weeks ago it was more like 4.5 vs a 6, with the 4.5 seemingly crashing into a 3 WAR player. Things change quick. Also reminds me of Kirk. In like 6 weeks he went from maybe being a trade piece for Kelenic (trade the fat noodle bat for the struggling 5 tool guy) to like one of the most valuable properties in baseball, but he's actually a noodle again the last few weeks... lol. Things change quick, EdiL What I mean is doing all these trades, sending players you know well, for ones you don't can backfire. Which I think is why Laika has mentioned, despite Jays having extra catchers, turning Moreno into an equivalent left handed outfielder is hard, because the trading partner knows the warts of their guy, or if they like their guy, and it's hard to match up in a fair deal. And maybe here we see the Padres not getting value on trades, because of that.

Maybe you are kidding, but seriously is it still possible for a guy like Soto to fake the birth certificate? I mean in this day and age with way more scouting and post 9/11 passport requirements and things.... like everyone knows all the kids from the Dominican, so can some 18 year old show up out of no where and claim they are 16? You are not the first to mention this though. When Soto first came up I heard some speculation. By the way the Pujols things was apparently kind of innocent. I think I read he came over at probably 18 or 19 and his family pushed his age down a couple of years so he could go to high school a year or two then get into college. According to Wikipedia he came over in 1996 to a rough neighborhood in NY City, they saw some guys get shot and the family moved to Missouri, where he became a high school star, then he went to Community College. So I am pretty sure if his age was faked it was to get him a good start in the States, not with a baseball contract in mind.

This year Vlad will end with about 55 walks and 110 ks. If he decided to change his approach and walk 100 times at the expense of 160 ks, many looking would his final numbers be better or worse? Presumably he hits for less average, but maybe not. Aaron Judge carries a decent average with the ultra patient 100 walk, 180 k approach.

Yeah. But he really pulled dat ball hard to left center. Merrifield down the line. And Springer pulled the ball to the left field bullpen for a 363 foot homerun. Good job Springer, he needs to pull that ball because he can't hit it more than 363 with only one good elbow. I just glanced the the velo box score and looks like Teoscar got the farthest drive of the second game. 397 for an out. I guess he didn't pull the ball that time, serves him right. Guillermo Martinez should get credit if he has the boys pulling ball at the right time. I bet before the 7th he delivered a critical piece of advice 'pull dat ball'. Hopefully he starts getting some credit.

They are first in average I guess.... "Billy these are the Chicago White Sox... They lead the league with a .262 average in a time when league Average is .240, their flaw is they don't walk, hit for power or play defense or steal many bases."

? Moneyball teams gave up some defense for walks and power. These guys are like 14th in walks and 10th in homers. It's like a team designed before stats were a thing, not just defensive stats.

Last night the Jays tied it with a professional at bat by professional hitter Alejandro Kirk. He didn't try to do too much, made contact, hit to the opposite field and drove in Guerrero with a opposite field fielders choice. It was something to see. After that point the Jays seemed to get away from the professional approach. They took a couple of walks which arguably are proffesional, but maybe not, because professionals often swing at the first pitch according to Buck and Pat. Either way after that. Whitt Merrifield - Pulled a hard grounder down the third baseline George Springer - Pulled a fly ball to Left (not left center) for a homerun Teoscar Hernandez - Pulled a hard line drive to left center (not left). Was any of this professional? Arguably the 7th run may have been professional, I can't remember how Teoscar got sent to third, I do remember when he scored the Rays may have been unprofessional handling a pop fly to shallow center.

The Park Factor makes the hitting look a little worse than it really is and the pitching a little better. Plus fangraphs really hates Marco Gonzales and Flexon for their low k rates. It is basically treating them as replacement players. And arguably the Ms 2 best starters, Luis Castilla and Kirby have the least amount of innings so they are weighted less. The team one would face in the playoffs has a rotation of Castillo, Kirby, Ray and Gilbert, the team going into next year will have Castillo, Kirby, Ray, and Gilbert. So basically forget what fangraphs says about this team, it just hates the low k-rate of Flexon and Gonzales, and that doesn't matter for the playoffs, might not be true anyway, and doesn't matter as much next year with the full season of Kirby and Castillo.

If all three take walks when they don't get pitches to hit things will be fine. Just so frustrating. If Vladdy want to be "the guy" he needs to realize RBIzzzzz are a thing of the past and clutch means taking the walk when the other option is swinging at bad pitches and GIDP. When a guy like Vlad isn't getting pitched to he can either hit .320 with 100 walks and settle for a lower RBI total, or he can hit .275 with 50 walks and the same lower RBI total. Swinging wildly when they aren't pitching to him leads to a ground ball or K, not an RBI.

The number of pitches both are seeing in the strike zone are the same according to fangraphs. Difference between them is swing percentage. Judge has a lower in zone and out of zone swing percentage and walks more. He hits more fly balls because of swing mechanics, but also because he doesn't swing at pitches he can't get in the air as much as Vlad. No evidence (and no reason) that teams would pitch Vlad tougher than Judge.

Actually if anything despite 'being close' both Orelvis and Vlad have gone into power slumps the last 3 or 4 weeks. Maybe 2 homers between them in a month?

I think both Vlad and Orelvis Martinez have both been very consistent since mid April, Vlad at .275 .340 .480 or so with a bad ground ball rate, and Orelvis at .200 .280 .480. Both have been close according to LTBF for 4 months. Not trying to start an argument that either one is the greatest failure in the world, or that either one won't be much better next year. Just that despite LTBF saying both are close, every day the last 4 months, neither has changed their level of performance, and the probably won't until next year, maybe after working on things after the season.

I didn't look close and just assumed this was a real post from LTBF.

True enough but deserved or not hitting coach won't get credit with games like Sunday's and Today's happening regularly. Paraphrasing Buck - "Jays and Rays hit completely differently. Rays are just professional hitters, and the Jays rely on the big homerun. If the big homerun doesn't come they are in trouble.' Fans think the same way. Won't giving hitting coach credit until Jays can have professional at bats, slap some singles the other way and put up clutch runs against the Springs of the world. Again not saying it is the hitting coach's fault, just saying fans and media won't be impressed with the hitting coach with these kind of games happening regularly.

Gabriel Martinez age '18' and '19' seasons actually compare favorably to Bo Bichette's, though Martinez is an 'old' 19 year old, having turned 20 in late July. Age 18 Bo hit .420 in a Rookie league, Martinez hit .330 with a much better k/bb, they had almost the same on base percentage. Age 19 low A - Bo hit .384 in low A, Martinez .284 but their k/bb and power were comparable. Age 19 High A - identical short stints. Both hitting around .320 .380 .480 with good k/bb. And he's supposedly like the 9th best prospect in the system. Farm system is pretty interesting right now. Dasan Brown is like the 30th guy, and he's having a decent season in Vancouver as a 20 year old.

I think he was shaking his hand in the one at bat I saw Saturday, and Yankees announcers mentioned he may not be fully recovered. Then yesterday only had 2 at bats and taken out. It was 10-1 or something when he was taken out... however must be something going on if he was rested half of yesterday but they still don't have him in there today.

It's an insanely talented group though with several players not meeting expectations, it's also a frustrating team to watch sometimes, like yesterdays game. Is there a single player exceeding expectations? Like if he made Ramial Tapia into a good hitter, then we'd be impressed. Fair or not expectation of the hitting coach is that he solves the obvious problems we see as fans. However Vladimir Guerrero still is a ground ball machine, Tapia is not a ground ball machine but not really any more useful than when he was. Bo Bichette still swings at everything, so hitting coach couldn't fix that... and from what Bo is saying his super hot streak is a result of him being even more aggressive then he was before... lol What exactly has the hitting coach done to solve the problems of our time like Vlad's ground ball rate? Seems like a bunch of players with a 120 OPS floor hitting their floor. Team should have been an 800+ run scored team, and it will end up at 750.