Olerud363

He just missed that double play grounder up the middle last night in the 8th. Timing just off a bit, but close.

Ramirez's 1999-2001 isn't in the graph and those years are insane. lol. He k'd once per game. Drove in a run once per game and hit like .330 .430 .630. Lots of walks. He missed 20-40 games a year too. In 2000 he was on pace to walk 110, k 160, drive in almost 170 and hit .350. In the same time period Vlad Sr. k'd half as much, walked half as much and wasn't as good.

I'm still hoping Vlad's career continues to roughly follow Gary Shefield's. Sheffield had a way lower k-rate but it was a different time. Shefield was a super prospect coming up at 19, struggle worse than Vlad and was traded young, then broke out at 23 having a super-season like Vlad's 22 going for a triple crown (ended up with a batting title instead of homerun title) Then in 1993 he roughly had a season comparable to Vlad's 2022. Mediocre compared to his breakout year and all kinds of players passed him to get the headlines (Bonds, Griffey, Olerud, Gallaraga won the batting titles with .400 chases, Gwynn resergence, Frank Thomas, Juan Gonzales). Then he was injured a bit and traded again, and in the 90s all kinds of other guys were becoming stars. But Shefield doubled and even tripled his walk rate, going from 40 walks in 92, to 140 in 96 and settled as a 100 walk guy with a bunch of good years. Hopefully that happens to Vlad, regains patience, rejoins the elites.

On one hand I totally agree with the point. Vlad swings less, walks 110 times, strikes out 160 and what happens? Is he better? I think so. On the other hand what does the graph look like for the 5 year period from 2009 to 2014 or so when Miguel Cabrera put up 180 wRC+ with a 50% swing rate? One or two points changes the plot completely. To a human it looks good because Trout and Judge and Soto I guess are the outlier points, but would look different if it was Pujols and Cabrera. FYI Pujols didn't have a crazy high swing rate actually, it was low earlier in his career and went up as he got old and bad. Cabrera put up great seasons with a 50% swing rate. Vlad Sr had a 59% swing rate or something, lol. A-rod low to mid 40s. Watching games it seems Vlad isn't a great bad ball hitter. Vlad is not his Dad and I don't see him often reach for a terrible pitch way outside and slam a line drive the other way. So for Vlad going the 110 walk 160 k route (if that is possible) may be better. As Trout and Judge show one can still hit .300 this way.

Well, before inter-league the AL and NL records probably meant more. It means a lot to a lot of people. AL Record, Yankees Record and possibly Clean Record. The 3rd is more controversial. I guess AL record is important to those of us who watched before 97. Hack Wilson? Always knew that name. NL Record for a long time.

He missed it, but didn't realize he missed it. If he hit a line drive down the line he would have hustled, he almost always does to get a double. He thought it was a no doubter.

Give him a break. Vladdy hits so few flyballs he probably has trouble judging them. Even though it was off the end of the bat and only 90 mph, he was so proud he hit it at 27 degrees that he celebrated. (even his homeruns are usually like 18-21)

It wasn't a lase. He missed it. 92 off the bat, 330 feet. It was down the line which meant Hicks couldn't get it.

There is something weird going on with their judgement. I mean Vlad hustled like hell to just beat out his "infield hit" that was HUGE Monday. So then on Tuesday he becomes lazy? It's not laziness, they just judged the ball off their own bats wrong. It's something mental but not just "hustle". They can't quite judge the ball off their own bats. Sometimes they think it's going 50 feet farther then it is. They can't judge pitches out of the zone. They swing at crazy pitches not because they think it's a good idea but they can't judge. If they could judge things properly they'd take borderline pitches, they'd hustle on every play. I mean speaking of Judge we all watched his at bats last night. Insane plate discipline. He has a 15 degree launch angle because he has elite pitch recognition and doesn't swing at the pitches that are auto-ground balls. He is also OK with 170 strike outs. Vlad's goal next year should be 110 walks, 160 strikeout, hustle on every non-430 foot ball.

100% agree. And I think the impression of how damaging it is, is worse than how damaging it is to a right handed hitter. And it will become apparent that even if they have sweet cash they will lose some opportunities to sign a certain type of player (cough Judge cough). Bo still had a 3 homer game there and a 2 homer game with 340 foot homers. It is still 2/3 the old Camden. However things that are somewhat true in baseball become exaggerated. Watching a couple of Orioles games I already seen announcers going nuts when a guy pull a 385 foot double to left. It is so weird. In left center it is still 376, then goes back to 399 with a 25 foot wall. It pisses off right handed pull hitters and announcers and doesn't help the pitchers as much as you'd think. I think the park factor went from 103 to 98. That makes sense. It is only 1/3 a demon park, and 2/3 the old Camden.

In the Orioles top 10 prospects they have 6 left handed hitters with high bb and k rates and high on base percentages. Seems obvious to me a) they are purposely trying to develop a lineup with all lefties or switch hitters to take advantage of Camden Freak Show they want the hitters to work deep in the count, walk, get high on base percentages and don't care if the k once per game. Gunnar Henderson 112G 79BB 116K .416OBP Jackson Holliday 20G 25BB 12K .489OBP Colton Cowser 137G 93BB 171K .407OBP Dylan Beavers 23G 16BB 18K .438OBP Kyle Stowers 95G 45BB 104K .357OBP Heston Kjerstad 65G 29BB 64K .394OBP With tonnes of payroll space they can buy/trade pitching like the Jays did (Gaussman, Ryu, Kikuchi, Berrios, Stripling all from outside the org) and maybe do a better job. So anyone saying well their pitching might not work out... well it might not, but if they are like the Jays the majority of their starters will come from other organizations, and they have Grayson Rodriquez who can play the Manoah role.

Different perspective here in NY. It's a big deal. The AL Record, the Yankee Record, and the "clean" record. However the former 2 are more important. So much history. Went to the Roger Maris Museum this summer, which is basically a display and 10 person movie theatre inside a dying mall. It was still awesome. Judge is also going for triple crown, but can see that fans won't care about that.

Yeah. The weekend games seem to be fine, and attendance is still good overall, but there seems to be a downtick in weekday games. Perhaps the weekday games are a younger demographic that may not have the disposable income.

Weird that attendance was only 30,000. In 2015 Jays/Yankees sold out a Monday night around the same time and there was way more buzz. Do you think it's just the division vs wild card? If the Jays were tied with the Yankees would we see a full house? I would have thought the Aaron Judge homerun chase would give added incentive. Oh well. Probably the next 5 are 40,000+?? Hot dog night tonight, weekend games, last game of series seems to get more. On Twitter they are saying the economy is in crisis, everyone is poor and saving up for Playoff tickets. Who knows if Twitter knows anything though.

It will be interesting to see where he ends up when the reshuffle the list. He is like not even top 10 on Jays lists. Jays seem to have a pretty strong top 15. Barger is toward the lower end. Maybe he'll be boosted way up. Strong top 30 really, with Dasan Brown near the bottom. Some reshuffling to come I guess.

I thought that, but he's already complained about the park. It really is ridiculous. I've no problem moving the fences to help pitchers a but they left the right field fence the same, and moved left 40 feet back and 30 up.

Luis Castillo/Logan Gilbert/George Kirby/Robbie Ray vs Kevin Gaussman/Alex Manoah/Ross Stripling/Jose Berrios It's 2022. Which 4 do you want for a tough 2 month playoff race + a deep run in post season?

They are where the Jays were in 2019 payroll and timeline wise, except they'll be coming off of an 85 win year, not 65. They have like a 40 million dollar payroll and should be able to raise that substantially. Crazy fact. Adley Rutchman is a year older than Kirk, and a month older than Bo Bichette. Yet he has 6 more years of control after this year. It will be interesting to see where Henderson fits in. If he's the second baseman, replacing Odor that is potentially 4 wins right there, and their ss and 3b are solid defensively, but getting killed by the park. Their park is freak show though. Not sure how they ever attract a right handed hitting slugger. They have enough payroll for Judge probably but no way he comes to that park, even if he would come to a rising Orioles team otherwise. I wonder if the freakshow park will hurt them in the long run? I guess they are clever and will build the team around left handed hitters.

For some reason Grant has been using fangraphs fWAR to prove all his points the last three or four weeks, without taking a deeper look. Which is crazy ironic because a few months ago, Grant was dissing fangraphs baserunning stats and claiming that they didn't work, and Tapia was the worst baserunner in baseball based on 3 Rockies games he saw. Quick glance at Saurez FG page and he has been a about a 4 WAR per 162 player 4 of the last 5 years. In 2021 he hit .198 but I can't see anything in the batted ball stats that is way off the other years. Did Seattle luck out? Or look closely at multiple metrics for Saurez. May have repercussions to projecting Orelvis Martinez. Martinez 2022 stats look just like Saurez 2021... so perhaps Martinez is a Saurez like hitter and their 2021/2022 seasons are the floor of what such a player could do... Chapman 2021 offensively too. I guess I've been letting Grant get on my nerves way more than is justifiable, but for God's sake one moment he's telling us Orelvis Martinez will project fine because his 2022 .200 average is a fluke, then the next he acts like Seattle was 'lucky' that Saurez bounced back from the exact same type of .200 average fluke.

lol. The statistics do not say otherwise you mean spirited bully! You've apparently somehow discovered a team, which fangraphs WAR underrates and will cherry pick the cumulative fWAR of the Seattle starting staff without considering... a) Castillo a 3.4 WAR pitcher isn't in their top 3, because he's only pitched 1/3 of a season Kirby, arguably their 2nd best only has 120 innings c) The fWAR formula under-rates Seattle's bulk starters with low k rates d) The fWAR formula may under-rate Robbie Ray Do you honestly believe the difference between Gaussman and Robbie Ray is 5.5 WAR to 2? I don't know. The market doesn't think so, treating these 2 as equivalent, but maybe the Robbie Signing will turn out to be the worst ever. He's only a 2 fWAR guy despite king 200 a year In baseball anybody can be wrong about anything, as we all have been many times. Your mode of operation is to continuously cherry pick your way through life in every way possible. You will make 8 predictions, be wrong about 5, and gloat about the 3 you hit!!!! Will Seattle continue to collapse ? Let's see what the next 10 days brings. They might. They might not. If there is such a thing as pressing the next 10 days might indeed be tough after a historically bad loss. They probably make the playoffs anyway, are relieved after a little scare and are relaxed for their 3 game coin flip. Hilariously you are going on and on about Seattle being so bad, and they are a good Robbie Ray/Castillo/Kirby start away from winning a 3 game series and making you look like a moron.

Mariners gave a huge prospect haul for Castillo, then signed him to a 100 million dollar extension, then the very next day he can't hold a 11-2 lead doing a Jose Berrios impression. Obviously not all his fault... Was Grant really wrong about something once and actually admitted it? As far as I can tell he's right about almost everything, like look at how bad Seattle is, and he saw it first. And.. don't bring up his claim that Billy Mckinney would be the next Justin Upton. Have you looked at their stats the last 2 years? IDENTICAL almost. He was right about that too it turned out.

Espinal is short stop insurance. Let's say a trade opportunity arises and you need to use one of Espinal/Biggio. Would you rather have Barger/Espinal or Lopez/Biggio next year?

We don't know the internal evaluations of any of these guys. One of the great things AA did in 2015 was give jobs out of spring training to Osuna, Castro, Norris, Travis, Pillar, Pompey and Goins while letting Rasmus go, and using Lawrie, Lind, Gose and Happ for trades. Not everything worked out, but he gave jobs to a lot of young guys while using some mid-career guys for trades.

Max Castillo got destroyed at Royals triple a in Omaha. Though only 20 innings or something so maybe not meaningful. Maybe Barger's k-rate is too high to be too optimistic about him.

If he's better than Biggio/Espinal though he is valuable to the major league roster as soon as 2023. Plus he's injury insurance for 2023 no matter what. Also have Otto Lopez, Espinal, Biggio, Kirk/Jansen/Moreno, Gabriel Martinez, a bunch of guys from the 2022 draft who are farther away for potential trades. Maybe Barger is the guy to trade, but as a lefty hitting for power I'd rather keep him then say Otto Lopez or maybe even Espinal (if Espinal was traded, replace him with Otto Lopez, if Biggio is traded replace him with Barger). And who get's a better reliever(s) in a trade Biggio, Otto Lopez, Espinal or Barger? Hypothetically?