Olerud363

There are some basic predictors like strength of farm system, and team age, that indicate Orioles will improve next year and Yankees will decline. The Orioles also have the most payroll space in baseball. Also out of the teams that have lost 100+ games multiple times in a short span, have any of them not turned it around very quickly once the draft picks started appearing? I'm thinking 2008 Rays, 2015 Cubs, 2015 Astros. And the Orioles have collected a bunch of young left handed or switch hitters with great on base percentages Rutchman, Henderson, Cowser, Stowers and Jackson Holliday already has a 25-12 bb/k ratio as an 18 year old high school draft pick and could come quick (but probably not next year). I don't know a lot about their pitching but they seem to have done a good job turning around some journey men this year, and have one of the top pitching prospects in baseball. Their closer is great and has 6 years control left even though he is 27. Their ownership is a bit wild, but apparently there are 'good' Angelos family members , and 'bad' ones. MLB Trade Rumors had an article on the family feud and apparently Mike Elias (apparently a very smart guy) was clever enough to have some 'non-interference' stuff in his contract. Maybe there is a scenario where the bad brother takes over somehow, Elias leaves, and they make a bunch of dumb decisions. Otherwise you have to think they are well posed for a good run.

Does anybody know what stats they are using to justify playing Tapia? I assume they went to the Keith Law school of super scouting and have some pitch type and batted ball data that indicates Tapia is the right guy all these nights. Is it possible Biggio's numbers are only decent because they've been careful with who he faces? Have they kept him away from velocity? Is there data that shows his outfield defense is really that bad to justify Tapia? If they are keeping him away from velocity it did not seem the Texas starter last night was exactly Nolan Ryan.

The thread was about baserunning and baserunning numbers. I don't remember outfield defense being discussed, but maybe that was a different thread. I don't even recall most people really defending Tapia, it was one of those times you were claiming that based on your TV scouting you caught all these mistakes Tapia making, that weren't reflected in the baserunning stats, and people were arguing that wasn't true. And I don't think it was. I don't recall Tapia getting picked off once a week, or making a horrible baserunning mistake every game. In fact it could be argued that Tapia won the game with his baserunning last night. That might be stretching it, but he didn't get picked off, ran on the right pitch, tagged up on a fly ball to left. At the very least he didn't make horrible mistakes. I'm not arguing Tapia is good or anything, and if you were pointing his defense was horrible, and others were arguing then you deserve a victory. I don't remember people arguing that though, it was the baseruning they were arguing.

Vladimir "80 hit tool" Guerrero JR typical season before shift rule, .274 28 homers 33 double plays Vladimir "80 hit tool" Guerrero JR typical season after after shift rule, .278 28 homers 35 double plays I think he'll get a couple of extra singles, but also a couple of extra double plays with the 2nd basemen right up the middle behind the bag.

Yellich seems to have a lot of batted ball problems (hard hit rate way down), but sever ground-ball-itis is among them. He had ground ball problems early in his career, seemingly cured them with 2 MVP caliber seasons, one in which he cranked 44 homers then they returned. His ground ball rate early in his career approached 60%, then it was down to 43% in his 44 homer season, now back up to 57%. Ground ball issues can be hard to fix, also see Jayson Heyward.

I mean, obviously there is a rational price given all the factors. However will they admit defeat and acknowledge they are risky players and accept some rational deal? Or will their egos, and their agents and 2 illogical teams get them a crazy risky mega deal? Like a 10 400 for Judge, or 10 350 for Guerrero.

Well, right now how do you price either of them? Judge is 8 WAR per 162 or so, but 30, and a history of injury problems and coming off of by far his best season. Guerrero is 4 WAR per 162 but 23, minor league numbers and 2021 show he could be a 6 WAR guy, but suffers from an extreme ground ball problem, that hasn't been correctable long term. In an era where other young players (Bellinger, Gleybor Torres to some extent) have never repeated amazing 22 year old seasons. In an era where guys are really falling off into their mid 30s. Interesting to see how both are priced.

If he decided to be as reckless on the basepaths as his Dad was in 2002, when he tried to go 40-40 (sr had 39 homers, 40 steals, but 20 caught) I do believe Vladimir Guerrero Jr could be the first 30-30 man 30 GIDP, 30 Caught Stealing (with 20+ steals along the way).

Even so, look at the stats... Vladimir '80 hit tool' Guerrero - Launch 4 degrees, Steals 7, Homers 27 Aaron 'bet on myself' Judge - Launch 15 degrees, Steals 15, Homers 54 Judge is still doubling him in everything including steals... Judge has 4 times the launch.

But the thing is if you raise everything by a 5 degrees he's probably 3/5 with 2 homers... even the launch angle on the fly balls is too low to be optimal. He has to hit the ball 110+ mph to get it out as his homers still almost always have low launch angle for homer. Like the ball that went 390 feet was 21 degrees 107, you get that to 25-30 degrees and it's 420.

On a related note, according to fangraphs the best players on the Toronto Blue Jays are... 1. Alejandro 'fattie' Kirk (3.8 WAR) 2. Matt '.220 hitter' Chapman (3.6 WAR) 3. Bo 'swings at everyting' Bichette (3.4 WAR) 4. George 'so disabled he can mostly just DH' Springer (3.3 WAR) 5. Vlad 'generational 80 hit tool hitter' Guerrero (2.8 WAR). Some of it is defense obviously, but still...

This series he's hit a lot of ground balls that is for sure... but can you blame him? Why bother launching a 400 foot 110 mpher that will be just be caught by the left fielder 3 steps from the warning track at the all new, all improved Camden Yards. Better to take his chances trying to get one in between 3rd and short. When he gets back to Rogers Center he can try launching again.

People do it all the time. They discount the highest scoring game or 2, for or against and say 'without those the offense really isn't that good'. Or without those the pitching really isn't that bad. It's dumb because good offenses typically have a 20 run game or 2 a year, bad pitching usually gives up a big score a couple times. So you have to count those in, as every other team in history also does. I mean if you want to eliminate the 28 run game what do you replace it with ? Just take away 28 runs? You can't do that, because every other team has a highest scoring game. So maybe take away 6 or 8 runs because the Jays highest scoring game is real high? OK. Take away 8 runs and the offense is still good.

Records like 6 hits, or 4 homers or 30 runs are all set in blow outs, so that would be the end of per game records. Aaron Judge has 59 homers in game 159, due up in the bottom of the 8th, Yankees ahead 14-2, but guess what. Game over other team concedes. OK. Maybe they wouldn't concede in game 159, but they might in game 59, and cost someone some stats in an historic year. It would make records, not just per game, but per season a bit harder to challenge because inevitably some of 260 hits, or 62 (74) homers or 190 rbis are in blow outs.

Is it even possible for these guys to change their approach? In 92/93 guys like Olerud/Alomar/Molitor all walked more than they struck out and all hit about .300 .400 .500 for the 2 world Series years. None were big time power hitters, but got 20 homers a year. If you tried to get Vlad and Bo and Lourdes to hit like that would it even be possible? I guess other than Vlad none have the natural ability to recognize pitches that is needed to walk 80 times. What if you tried to get them to all strike out less than 100 times? If you said f*** it, that's the only goal, we don't care if you hit 0 homeruns. What would happen? Maybe they'd all hit like Lourdes is this year. .290 with 5 homers. Who knows. Not sure there are easy answers here.

If they can't beat Baltimore or Tampa Bay in a short series then they won't make the playoffs. To make the playoffs they'll have to beat those two teams about half the time. The weird logic going around, that they'll make the playoffs but then have no chance in the first round is stupid. They have to be able to play .500 against TBR and Baltimore to make the playoffs, and if they can play those teams .500 then the playoff series against them is a coin flip. If they make the playoffs they'll have as good as chance as anyone. If they don't have a chance in short series against wild card contenders they won't make the playoffs.

Who knows. Regardless of what Groshan's is doing in the minors and what he was traded for the development of Martin/Groshans/Moreno/Pearson and Martinez has added to a frustrating year and a half. If you told me last June that Martin/Groshans/Moreno's homeruns in 2022 + Pearson's major league innings would be like 6 and Martinez's average would be .198... that would be terrible... At least we traded them just in time for valuable assets... lol.

He seems to have stalled at aaa and is hitting for no power, so right now... no. You never know for sure but next year he will be 25. Next guy up is Addison Barger. Sadly with all these second tier prospects it's just a game of attrition. Barger looks good right now but who knows if he can handle triple a and then the majors.

A three game series is a coin flip... They can't make the playoffs without playing better than Baltimore over the next 4 weeks and being able to handle Tampa Bay. So IF they make the playoffs by definition they've proven they are about as good as the other wild card teams, and it's a coin flip. If they make the playoffs the season will feel like a success because they at least didn't totally fall apart after some tough stretches. If they don't make the playoffs it will feel like a complete failure. The scenario where they win the division and are one of the best teams in baseball able to have a bye and an actual significant advantage in the playoffs has already sailed.

Ray was replaced by Gaussman, Semien by Chapman. Believe it or not in terms of fWAR Chapman and Gaussman are on track to beat them. It seems unbelievable but Chapman and Gaussman have 8.4 fWAR with 37 games to go. Semien and Ray had 10.1 last year. In my opinion the collapse of Berrios/Kikuchi/Ryu hurt the most. I think Berrios weird good luck in terms of record, and Gaussman's weird bad luck has masked this. Imagine Gaussman and Berrios's luck was reversed? Gausman would be 14-2 or something and Berrios 4-12 and the narrative would be that Berrios's collapse tanked the season.

Big factor could be their call-ups and their park. So far they've called up Stowers (who hit the homer last night) and Vavra, both left handed, and they still have a bunch of better left handed hitting prospects in the minors, a couple of which could play in September. Could stack a bunch of lefties with a short right field porch against the Jays right handed hitters who will have to hit a 400 foot shot to clear the deep left field and high wall. I am surprised the park configuration isn't getting more complaints... I am sure it will when Stowers or someone wins a game with a 350 foot homerun while a Jays hitters has a 390 foot shot caught.

I knew nothing about Rico, as he was before my time, but just looked him up. Great choice. Seems like an awesome hitter who must have had some bad luck or injuries or something. Won a batting title and had a few .320 seasons. Somehow he was acquired by Toronto 4 times according to baseball reference. 1. Acquired in the expansion draft but traded back to Cleveland. 2. Traded to Toronto by Cleveland, but traded to Oakland a few months later. 3. Purchased from Oakland by Toronto 4. Signed by Toronto as a free agent. I assumed Cleveland and Oakland must have been good in the late 70s so wanted Rico to help with the pennant race. Nope. He just ping ponged between three bad teams in random transactions. Nevertheless seems like a great hitter, and would be a fine choice for this hypothetical bases loaded situation with Springer, Vlad and Gurriel on (in) the bases.

1. Pat Tabler 2. Spencer Horwitz 3. John Olerud 4. Ed Sprague 5. Greg Bird 6. Gabriel Martinez If we are talking historical I'd go with Tabler (best ever with bases loaded), Olerud (Hall of Famer if Cito didn't platoon him and f*** with his swing in his prime years) and Sprague (clutch, didn't give a s*** that his wife stole the syncro medal). If we are talking current day I'd go with Spencer Horwitz (if right handed pitcher), or Gabriel Martinez (if left). I think an up and comer with good contact skills who hasn't had time to think about the pressure would do good in that situation. If you want to get creative why not Greg Bird? Great swing and if he could get over his injury problems would for sure be the guy.

lol. You mean you think they are taking steroids on purpose? I just assumed MLB doesn't have a good health plan and they have to go get ringworm treatment from their cousin who works the desk at the animal hospital.. or sometimes they can't afford the good stuff at GNC so they order discount supplements from China or Mexico or somewhere.

I don't know the inner workings of the testing program, but it would be insane if MLB has any say in whether a player get outed or not. Doesn't a 3rd party just do the testing, report the result and that's that. The poor guys usually get it from accidentally taking horse steroids for ring worm and s*** like that, nobody is cheating on purpose, but they all still get suspended, doubt there is a mechanism to give Pujols special treatment, Manny Ramirez, near the end of his career was having a story book season for the LA Dodgers and they outed him.