Olerud363

lol. I've obviously had my run-ins with the guy, but since he spent the last couple of weeks dissing Seattle he can't mentally accept they are a decent ball club on par with the Jays. So he has to exaggerate how bad the Jays are to reconcile things. Castilla is pretty good. Bass may not be. The catcher Raleigh has power. Santana can still get big extra base hits (as we saw in July and today). Frazier isn't a .230 hitter. Their starting depth came in handy when they made Kirby a closer in a 1 run game. This f***ing sucks. Worse loss ever as the thread title says. But are they a unfixable flawed Jays team ever that won't know how to win? Probably a 9-5 win with one more swing and miss reliever.

I went to check, figuring lifetime Santana must hit lefties worse, and they were going by lifetime not season stats. Seems like he hits lefties better lifetime though. What were they thinking? Maybe that the wanted Mayza in, but if they waited another batter he'd have to face Julio Rodriquez if it came to that?

Not sure why people feel the need to tell others to shut up... it's not that hard to scan by posts one is not interested in. It seems you are right though. Watching some of the Rays/Guardians game it seemed they bringing out guys one after the other that were as good as Romano. In other bullpens Romano is probably just one of 4 or 5, not the guy.

Worst loss I can remember but not worse series of losses. 85 and 87 were worse because they blew it over a few days. Though I was barely paying attention then. Since I started watching seriously I can't remember anything like this.

Are you assuming Springer is out? Or instead of Espinal?

That and Pitchers in the late 90s had the same issues hitters do today. The run-scoring environment was out of wack and their numbers could look horrible even if they weren't doing that bad.

Good God. It's a message board and this is one small discussion among many. Out of most of the regulars I have one of the lowest post counts, and am by no means trolling the board in any way. I didn't even mention Haggerty in the last post and just found it interesting that the Jays are likely to play Tapia this series, but at this point no one is too concerned about that. If you believe in the projections, or the lifetime numbers replacing Gurriel with Tapia is just as big a difference as any of the Seattle injuries. However no one seems worried.

Yeah got to love this board. No one gives a s*** that the Jays have to play a 0.3 WAR guy, on the level of Taylor Trammel. I guess it is because Rocket Raimel has a killer attitude and can hit 420 foot 112 mph bombs once every 40 games. I could see him doing it twice this weekend and winning wild card MVP. f*** WAR. People who watched the game for a long time know attitude... and Tapia has attitude and won't give a f*** about the pressure. Series MVP even though Tapia is the worst baserunner of all time, and according to fWAR at the level of Taylor Trammell this year.

2022 Bellinger is like a 1.7 WAR guy hitting .210, If Kelenic can be like Bellinger and hit .220 he can be an almost 2 WAR guy too. Kelenic hitting .140 is like the same as Tapia... lol. Maybe not quite. No checked it. Tapia is a 0.3 WAR guy. So apparently Taylor Trammel and Tapia are tied with 0.3 WAR. Laughing my ass off how supposedly replacing Haggerty with Trammel is A BIG f***ING DEAL. Replacing Gurriel with Tapia? f***. No big deal. Tapia got this. Wait didn't Grant say that Tapia is the worst base runner of all time? According to Grant Logic losing Haggerty for Trammell, should be cancelled by losing Gurriel for Tapia, the worst baserunner of all time.

lol. Trammell and Haggerty are pretty comparable and interchangaeble. You are creating a bizarre Grant narrative, like the Billy Mckenney is the next Justin Upton one, out of nothing. They are both fringe minor league players. They both are bad hitters. Trammell is younger and has more upside. Haggerty is older and a bit more experienced if you can call 300 career at bats, of which he was awful in before hitting .250 in 170 at bats this year "experience". It seems, judging by your recent posts, you've recently discovered how to sort things on Fangraphs and are making posts about things you find, without even thinking about the context. Like your entire Seattle's pitching is bad narative, relies on ignoring that Castillo is more like a 4 WAR pitcher, then the 1.5 WAR he was with Seattle. Your entire narrative about Haggerty relies on assuming the best 200 PAs of his life (which aren't even that great) are typical. And what evidence is there that Trammell is a bad base runner? The guy has hardly played. Just like Haggerty had hardly played before 5 months ago. Trammell stole bases in the minors albeit at not quite the rate Haggerty did. The last time you told us someone was a terrible baserunner (Tapia) it was complete ******** based on 2 Rockies games you watched.

Not that I know s*** about Kelenic and what his problem is, just saying he is .160 hitter with the secondary skills to be useful if he can hit .220. Can he? I think most players can hit .220 except for modern day Bellinger, but maybe Kelenic is in that category with Bellinger. Just saying the Mariners have weird depth, with like Winker their 13th best according to fangraphs, but everyone's batting average sucks.

Like what if there was a Mariners version of LTBF and he's been telling everybody that Kelenic is close for the last 2 years? Nobody took him seriously, but he was right. And with the injuries Kelenic now has a shot to show how close he was. If that is the case Hopefully since Vladdy has been really close too, Vladdy will show now, and will hit several 3 run bombs to counter...

I think I am going nuts because this Seattle team is actually a old school walks and homers 'Moneyball' team and no one seams to know it. Does anyone realize what their stats would like if they like, it they played in 1999 in the Ballpark at Arlington or something? They have some depth. Supposedly Kelenic is like the worst player in major league history. However his 3 true outcomes data isn't that different the Julio Rodriquez who is the best player ever projected forward with 498 million dollar contract. I'm not saying Kelenic is as good as Rodriquez. Not even maybe half as good. Maybe 40% as good. So Rodriquez is like a 6 WAR player, and it could be that Kelenic is actually a 2.5 WAR player right now, but has a freakish .158 batting average. The combination of the best pitchers year since 196something and the Mariners poor hitters park has made their batting averages look freakish, and people are missing how much depth they have. Maybe Kelenic really is a .150 hitter, but I've never seen a guy with 20 homers, 50 walks and 160 ks in 500 at bats really be a .160 hitter.. Maybe Kelenic was just popping it up too much, or too many grounders... but he was close... he was close... nobodyh believed he was close... but he was... and now with the injuries he might play and be OK, because he was close but now Kelenic has arrived!

Not completely right. I first said that Winker was easily replaceable which he probably isn't. I also didn't realize that Haggerty is a really good base stealer. I just think the guys who will replace their playing time aren't that different. I don't know what is really going on with Haggerty, Trammell, Winker and Santana. Stats scouting, and just remembering the July Series I think Santana is only a slight downgrade and could still have a big hit. I think Tramell is only a slight downgrade and could run the bases OK. What do I know. Never watched these players. Maybe Santana was lucky in July, is old as f***, is done and won't get the key walk that Winker would have. Maybe Tramell is a terrible baserunner.

Yeah. I am sure that is why some people are getting so worked about this. I live in NY States and get all the NY Cable stations. I have YES Network on TV 24/7. I travelled to North Dakota recently, to a mall in Fargo, to see the Roger Maris museum. It was just a display in the mall, with a little movie room but it was great. So to me all the attention seems pretty appropriate. However I can see how dumb it might seem to people in other parts of North America. I also still stand by my other point, in that before 97 American and National League were very distinct. To someone growing up in the late 80s or early 90s American league record seems natural, but for anyone growing up after that I am sure an 'American League' record seems weird. As another weird point I do not believe that they ever switched a team between leagues until they did it with the Brewers in 98. Then they did it too the Astros in 2013 I think. Before that it was cool to have different numbers of teams in each league. League's were separate. Teams moved here and there but never switched leagues until Bud Selig did it. Bud Selig mother f***er. Natural way... Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, Orioles, Tigers - God's division. Atlanta Braves should have moved to central, and Rays to NL East. That is the way God intended. However Selig, a satanist if there ever was one interfered because he had fond memories of watching national league as a young man in Milwaukee in the 50s. That's right. Rays should be in NL East. Braves in NL Central and Tigers still in AL East. All these ******** trips to the Trop never should have been.,

Looking over recent Mariners box scores it seems Winker and Santana weren't playing in the same games much. So Santana replaces Winker, Winker is better but they do the same things sort of. Santana, despite hitting like .195 is an average hitter because he walks, hits for a bit of power and league average is like a .310 on base and .390 slugging now. In the July series didn't he win 2-1 run games with 2 run homeruns late in the game on back to back days? I guess people don't remember the homeruns only the scrappy momenmts. If Santana is up in the 6th with 2 out and 2 on is it time for Zach Pop? Santana has already homered against Manoah and Cimber. Would Zach Pop's 98 mile sinker be a guaranteeed ground out for the old man or would you go Bass, not wanting to risk the ground ball getting threw?

I don't think it heavily favors them. Though glancing at the stats they do have more swing and miss. I think it will come down to big plays by big players. Both teams score on extra base hits. Jays are a better contact hitting team, Mariners walk more, both are power hitting teams equal in homeruns. As in many games the big play will probably be a big extra base hit early in the game.

Here is my basic point. Replaceable. Some players are more replaceable than others because talent is a pyramid. You guys are claiming 2 things. 1., That Haggerty is unique, and can't be replaced with a combination of other players including Trammell. 2. That his unique skills would have a big impact on a short series. Both are untrue. 1. Haggerty can be replaced and will be by Trammell and others. 2. It's unlikely that the series will be decided by baserunning or a pinch hit appearance, but if it is somebody at least 95% as talented as Haggerty will have that moment. So how much does this reduce the Mariners changed of winning the series? Let's say they were 47% before, I'd say they are 46.8% now. Is that a ******** estimate? I don't know. I'd say there is like a 2% chance a game arising where Haggerty would have a big moment, and who-ever replaces him will be almost as good.

My premise, which is correct is that big things matter more than little things. It's ridiculous that any Blue Jays fan over 40 would believe this ********. You must have been under 5 when the Jays first won the world series. From 85 to 93 we watched 8 years of playoffs and playoff races and I don't recall a single memorable scrappy play. Starting in 85 George Brett kicked their ass, in 89 Henderson and Canseco (5th deck), in 91 Kirby Pucket. In 92 Alomar's big homer and f***ing killing the As like 8-1 in the last game. Ed f***ing Sprague. Molitor hitting .500. Carter's homerun. Bautista bat flip. Edwin walk off. Every memorable moment is a big play, an extra base hit, a homerun by a good player. I don't remember any scrappy ******** in the history of this franchise's playoff games. You know what I do remember. The scrappiest f***ing thing I remember? The fastest mother-f***er I remember? Otis f***INGS Nixon. He is fast. He is a bunter. And where did that f***ing get them?

How the f*** does the game even get to the extra innings without the homeruns? If they don't hit homeruns it's like a 9-3 victory for Texas. What about the next night where they clinch their playoff spot with a homerun? So you are saying if there is a game, with a bunch of homeruns, J-Rod bombs, And Saurez blasts, but Jays counter with some Teoscar, Springer and Vlad blasts and it's tied 10-10 in the tenth. We got it because at that point Seattle is screwed because they don't have Haggerty? If they lost their homeruns instead of Haggerty they might not even get to extra innings. And besides Trammell might be able to do some base running heroics anyway.

If it comes to that, that one stolen base wins you the series, then it still means he only partially shares the credit. 1. If it's a 1-1 game a pitcher would have had to do good 2. If it's a 7-7 game the offense would have had to do good 3. If Haggerty is pinch running then someone would have had to get on base. 4. If Haggerty scores then someone has to get a hit. How do you decide who get's all the other playing time that helped set everything up for Haggerty's big stolen base? Projections. How do you decide to roster Haggerty in the first place? Or to pinch run him? Projections. He has been and is projected to be a good basestealer. Hit replacement Trammel I think is also an OK base stealer but not quite as good as Haggerty. Haggerty is gone. Trammel is probably headed to Toronto. How will they decide whether or not to let Trammel run or not? Projections?

Really hoping this is the year of Grant. Red Sox collapse, next Seattle doesn't put up any fight and Grant can gloat. Not that I have ever claimed Seattle is a great team, just argued they aren't a terrible team and not anything different than what you'd expect from a wild card team in the expanded playoff era. Not a terrible team, not a great one. Like 4% worse than the Jays. What does 4% worse mean over a 3 gamer series? What do these little injuries that make them another .5% worse mean?

I totally agree. Which is why I didn't think losing Haggerty was a big deal. His projection is like .220 .300 .340 or something. I would think the loss of Winker is more important then it first appears, because he is a good player, but using the same framework the loss of Haggerty would be less important. He's a 28 year old with unimpressive minor league numbers and projections.

Anybody could be important. However Winkler and Haggerty are still fairly easily replaceable. Talent is a pyramid. If a 5 WAR guy get's injured and is replaced by a 1 WAR guy that's a big hit. If a 1.2 WAR guy get's inured and is replaced by a 1 WAR guy that is not a big hit. According to fWAR Haggerty is 1.5 WAR and Winker is 0.4 this year. You have other guys that are comparable that can fill in. Winker is the 13th best Seattle player by fWAR. Their bench will be light and if anything else bad happens they might be playing a Zimmer like guy (I don't know who that would be, as I don't know their team that well.) The combined loss of Winker and Haggerty is 2 WAR total, and is replaceable. However... Winker is a much better player in the rest of his career then he is this year. Haggerty has done nothing outside of this year. So maybe you could twist in the wind a bit and argue Winker is a huge loss because this year doesn't count and he's really a .280 .380 .500 hitter, and Haggerty is a big loss because this 1 year is everything and he's like a 3 WAR guy for sure.

f***. Our society is going to hell. You actually think a decent discussion about a complicated record, PED history, historical discussion of the evolution of the separate leagues is equivalent to some moron who posts gibberish lineups and trade ideas in broken english?