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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Corbin for Moreno would be great. It's too bad Moreno had a bit of a down year. I think the perceived difference between them might be too much right now, but it's a weird, because a hot couple of months from Moreno in Buffalo would have changed that. Like Moreno spent almost 2 months in Toronto and played 20 something games. If he had stayed in Buffalo padding his stats he'd probably be ranked more highly. And in fact he is no longer even ranked on prospect lists because of time he spent mostly sitting in Toronto.
  2. Olerud363
    This is why I am in trade Jansen camp. "We have no idea what Moreno will become" is true and means he has a high ceiling.... really high ceiling. We have no idea if 2021 was real and the power drought of 2022 just a sample size fluke. Kirk and Moreno have very high ceilings. Jansen not so much. Never trust an age 27 season. blaahhh... maybe I've just been reading too much 1980s Bill James.
  3. Olerud363
    It's just that Kirk's record of work, including minors is way more impressive than Jansen's and Kirk has a super high ceiling, especially if he could catch 120 games (his d-stats are knocked down by 50 DH games). Perhaps I'm the one being illogical, but it just seems to me that guys with Kirk's hitting skills are pretty rare and have high ceilings. I've mentioned some names (Olerud, Mauer, Edgar Martinez), but here is another one. Roberto Alomar. Sort of a .290 hitter with single digit homerun power at Kirk's age, peaked as a .320 hitter with 25 homers. Mistake I am making is forgetting all the guys who hit .290 with 15 homers good on base... more walks than strikeouts and failed, or peaked at 23.
  4. Olerud363
    This discussion is going off the rails. No one is a Jansen fan-boy they just think they are all superscouts and hate the moneyball movie and want to evaluate players based on how they fit in jeans. If Kirk looked like Jansen and Jansen looked like Kirk they'd think Kirk is the next Carlton Fisk and want to trade Jansen.
  5. Olerud363
    Jays should just accept all these catchers are f***ing good and make sure the other teams know it. Tell the teams they can't trade the fat guy because fat guys are under-rated, they can't trade the prospect, because he is actually the number 1 overall prospect in baseball They can trade the 5 WAR 27 year old, who got a fluke injury but is a .250 hitter with 30 homer power and is better then J.T. Realmutto and the Jays will consider trading him for a good haul for anyone who wants an allstar catcher for their world series drive.
  6. Olerud363
    Grisham would be interesting. His bat actually seems similar to Jansen's but he is at a down point with rates similar to what Jansen had in 2020.
  7. Olerud363
    Isn't their excess payroll taxed, and they lose draft picks and signing money? Unless they are at a point where they've already maxed the penalties out, you think there would incentive to avoid wasting 20 million.
  8. Olerud363
    I think he will almost certainly be non-tendered. He has been very bad for 2 years. Only tendered last year because they thought 2021 could have been a fluke.
  9. Olerud363
    On a more serious note, people have mentioned a few young left handed hitting outfielders with 4+ control remaining. Are there any lefty hitting outfielders that are match for Jansen instead? Similar value, 2 years control remaining?
  10. Olerud363
    Atkins trying to get rid of Kirk for a 5 WAR young outfielder: We have a fat little guy who our fans think peaked at 23, he's got an 80 bat and stats like a young Joe Mauer but you can't trust any of that. We're going to keep our 27 year old injury prone power hitting catcher instead. Guy's got a good body. You just can't trust the fat guys so we are getting rid of ours. Anyway you guys want to give up young a 5 tool left handed hitting athletic outfielder for our fading fat guy? That would be great thanks.
  11. Olerud363
    Impacting the roster in a meaningful way is right, but that could also be negative. You are trading the guy with the highest ceiling. Kirk gets in a bit better shape and he could be a 6 WAR guy if he doesn't fade late in the season and can play more games at catcher. Also if Kirk is a big risk because of body type why are the other teams going to be giving up something meaningful for him? Wouldn't they prefer Jansen anyway for the reasons some people on the board do?
  12. Olerud363
    Is Liam Hendricks available and healthy ? Trade some dominicans or mexicans or something for him and have an all commonwealth shut down 8 and 9th.
  13. Olerud363
    They haven't mentioned any names though? Who do they want to get rid of for 'non-winning' attitude? Gurriel? He didn't even play in the playoffs. Hernandez? If it wasn't for the bullpen collapse he would have won game 2 with 2 bombs. Kirk? He is a bit out of shape but seems business like and doesn't joke around. Who is this player or player(s) that both had a 'non-winning' attitude and under-performed? hmmmm.... Just like to hear the name and the proposed trade(s) that will fix this problem.
  14. Olerud363
    The team won 92 games and had a winning record against their key divisional rivals NY, Tampa Bay and Baltimore the last 6 weeks of the season. They won tough match ups against Houston at the beginning of the season. They went 15-3 against Boston and single handedly kept them out of contention. So the under-performing part of the season was the mid-season stretch before Schneider took over and obviously the 2 games against Seattle. For the former you can blame Kikuchi and Berrios to a big extent. Do the "players aren't serious" folks, think it was their attitude that caused them to implode? For the latter Manoah, Guerrero, Gausman, Mayza, and Bass arguably under-performed. I say arguably because there was lots of bad luck involved. So are these the players we need to trade because of attitude? So when you say "get rid of the non-winning players" be specific? Who, why and how?
  15. Olerud363
    Yeah... but Sandovol is kind of the example that makes them want to trade Kirk. Was 5 WAR at 22 and 24 but then got a bit worse in mid 20s. Didn't ever become a better hitter than he was at 22. It's only one example. I want to see a list of the top 10 obese fat asses who started at 22, then a chart on how their average WAR progressed through age 22-29.
  16. Olerud363
    If they performed at last years paces, and the defensive stats were correct, then Varsho is better then Kirk. One non-significant point is that Kirk DHd 50 games, so his defensive value on fangraphs would have been reduced by that. I think it would have been reduced 5 runs. So Kirk is an 9 on fangraphs, but that is actually a 14 in 78 catching games + -5 in 50 DH games. So Kirk catching 130 games could be a very good defensive player (at least according to fangraphs). Now whether a bowling ball and catch 130 games is a good question, and once again comes back to obesity.
  17. Olerud363
    I'm not sure I agree with you, but at least someone has point blank brought up the real issue You need 2 groups Group 1 - .280ish hitters between 22-24 with power, walk and k rates similar to Kirk - Group 2 - Obese hitters who were successful between 22-24 of any skill set. Use group 1 to figure out the potential for a normal shaped hitter with Kirk's stats. Use group 2 to figure out how obesity will effect his development.
  18. Olerud363
    Many hitters similar to Kirk add power and even average as they peak. What is the average outcome for .... 23 year old .280 hitter, mid-level power more walks then ks .310 .410 .500 minor leauger? According to baseball reference the most similar hitter is Wander Franco, most similar through age 23 is Ernie Banks? Ernie Banks. Like what f***? Wasn't that some power hitter from the 50s. Wander Franco greatest prospect ever (other than Vlad)? Wander Franco as a minor league hitter is like Kirk except younger (which is important) and he is like Kirk as a major league hitter (.280). Has Wander peaked? Will Wander not improve? If Wander will improve but Kirk won't why? Because Wander is younger? (fair). But do 23 year olds not improve too? This still seems obesity based. FYI. Ernie Banks wasn't a power hitter yet, or at least not a bit time one, so at 23 was sort of like Kirk, then the power exploded at 24
  19. Olerud363
    But Jansen is the one who was way above his career norms and minor league stats Kirk - career .278 .362 .426 2022 .285 .372 .415 minors - .310 .406 .505 Jansen - career .223 .307 .423 2022 - .260 .339 .507 minors - .269 .366 .412 Obesity induced illusion. Kirk didn't have an amazing nor a terrible season given career averages and milb numbers. Just met expectation. People just believe he will not develop further and maybe regress because of obesity.
  20. Olerud363
    No surgery announced, I believe they said they will wait and see for another few weeks. He played fine offensively after he came back from hit 10 day rest so it looks like this is something that can be managed, though you don't want to get back to the situation in July where he was only playing half the time. I don't know s*** about bone spurs, just what I read.
  21. Olerud363
    Fun thought experiment. Would you trade Colby Rasmus after his 23 season (4 WAR) for Joe Mauer after his age 22 season (.290 .411 slugging, 3.4 WAR). Well no, because you know how it turned out. But at the time, try to pretend you don't know how it would turn out, and you have a need for a left handed center fielder, and have a catcher with good bat to ball skills but not great power. The center fielder has more WAR. Would you make the trade using the information available at the time? I doubt anyone would, even if they had other catchers (they'd trade the other catchers) because of Mauer;s scouting reports and pedigree. So the idea of trading Kirk is based on scouting, which may be valid, and some theory that an obese little guy who hit great in the minors won't develop after 23.
  22. Olerud363
    Altuve has developed pretty good power for a short guy. Martinez only hit more than 30 homers once. And I'm not saying Kirk is going to be exactly like Martinez, I'm comparing him to a group of great hitters, Olerud, Mauer, Kruk and Martinez. I'm saying his best seasons might end up like their best seasons, and there is only one 30+ homer season among their careers. Flaw in my argument is my comparison group is guys comparable to Kirk first couple of years, who I remember, because they turned out to be awesome, and I'm not including the guys who didn't become memorable.
  23. Olerud363
    Edgar Martinez is another one. Started late. His first full year was very Kirkish in 1990. Became a monster in his 30s... though who knows how much we can trust the 90s. But still... Just it feels to me guys who have Kirks contact rate and line drive power develop even further... like I said I could be totally wrong because I am forgetting the ones who didn't win batting titles.
  24. Olerud363
    For sure. However you don't have to trade Kirk, you just have to consider trading one of them, (or moving Moreno to another position), and I think if Kirk looked like a normal player no one would be wanting to trade him. I am not even saying they are wrong. I think they are wrong, but my bias is just thinking back on guy with medium power, a nice swing, and more walks then Ks and I picture him developing like Olerud or Joe Mauer, even though he doesn't look like them. Another guy I think is similar as a hitter, from a LONG time ago, is John Kruk. He got better and better as he aged and was a great hitter in his early 30s. lol. I am sure I am forgetting all the 23 year olds who popped 15 homers with 65/55 bb/k but went no where... or am I?
  25. Olerud363
    Instead of Choi just get Spencer Howard. He is in Buffalo with the Bisons. Can come to Toronto for free. Choi is old and not good .220 with 10 homers. Spencer is .250 at least with 12 homers, maybe more, left handed.
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