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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    This thread is really just about how you think Kirk's body type will age near term. It sounds like some people think Kirk has already peaked. I wouldn't trade him. Seems to me he got tired and stopped hitting for power second half. Yeah, looked it up and he had like a .320 slugging in the second half. Was that random or was he getting tired and beatup? Only 23, I think there might be even more in his bat. Like batting title with 20 homers. Or do you guys think the May/June Kirk the fluky one?
  2. Olerud363
    It would be unfair to pick on just Grant for this. They played Houston tough, 3 1-run games. 4th Starter Kirby is a rookie who saved the key game against the Jays, then pitched 7 scoreless yesterday. Throws 98 with freakish control. I don't think a team like that is dogshit. They play in a pitchers park in a pitchers year and had some bad luck with batting averages which started this stupid narrative. Julio Rodriquez for christ sake is as good a minor league hitter as Vlad, had a better rookie season, is worth like 3 WAR more on baserunning and defense alone. I mean f*** who Julio and Vlad both hit as they can Vlad will still be only 6 WAR and Julio 9. What is with taking every Seattle player and evaluating them totally wrong? Just cuz Raleigh (who may actually be more like a .270 hitter) hit .211? Blue Jays Message Board - we love batting average. We love old skiool!. Yo Bro team with Kirby as a 4th starter sucks... who is Kirby again?
  3. Olerud363
    Peter 1. Bichette has only good years. No bad years. Rasmus had a couple of good years, but had .220 with no WAR. 2. We do not need to work on Hernandez's extension. Hernandez is like Rasmus. Too inconsistent. 3. Packaging Kikuchi? For what? Kikuchi will be ace reliever or back to normal starter. Need to find a player like Alvarez with left handed great hitting. Either get Barger to do weights and learn more patience, get Biggio to do weights (a lot) or get Kirk to do weights and switch hit. Or Hernandez to switch to left. If he switches to left I think then maybe we work on his contract.
  4. Olerud363
    I asked before what Kirk's value would be if he looked like Buster Posey. Someone said 'That's a stupid question moron, it's like asking what my girlfriends value would be if she was 120 not 300" Well not a stupid question depending what someone wants your girlfriend for. Like if they want to hire her as a chef it might not be a stupid question. Maybe she is so fat she'll eat all the food and can't fit into the walk in freezer to get the frozen tomato sauce. Or maybe she can, and it would be dumb not to value her highly as chef. If Kirk looked like Buster Posey or Joe Mauer everyone would want Julio Rodriquez for him as they'd assume batting titles and the hall of fame is coming. We don't assume that because he is obese and we assume he'll be tired, may have peaked at 23 and in the future will hit .270 with 11 homers and a 2.5 WAR. Well that's kind of what it sounds like reading this thread, and the way people value the catchers.
  5. Olerud363
    Looks like the left field bullpen is closer than the right field bullpen. And center field with the fence angling out quick after the bullpen. Would be interesting to find out what the dimensions will be and see it overlayed with the old ones. Maybe it will be the opposite of Baltimore. Everything ridiculously deep except left, if only you had a team of right handed hitters... lol. Probably not anywhere as extreme as Baltimore but a bit friendly to righty hitters.
  6. Olerud363
    I mentioned this already but given the 3 batter rule the computer and the nerds might have said Mayza pitches to 7, 8, 9. Like it's a choice between Santana, Kelenic/Pinch Hitter, Crawford or Kelenic/PH, Crawford, Julio Since he might have to face 3 anyway, they rather Mayza face Santana than Julio. Yes there are 2 outs so 3 batter rule may not have matterred, but if it did matter Julio would have been tying run. Now the question of whether to go to Mayza at all could be asked... but if you use Mayza, 7-8-9 would have been the spot to use him determined pre game. So all of this was probably Schneider working from a plan they made pregame.
  7. Olerud363
    What contract do you sign him to for 10 years Best case .330 avg 52 homeruns 90 walks 18 double plays That is an awesome historic season and only a very, very small step from 2021 Worst case .263 avg 20 homeruns 51 walks 32 double plays That is a useless season but only a very small step from 2022
  8. Olerud363
    That's an interesting question. Thomas is just ahead in overall minor league numbers, but Moreno had his aa and aaa years cut short (when he could have put up big numbers). Thomas hit horrible in 400 at bats in his first crack at mlb. How much do these factors impact trade value? Do people care that Thomas struggled in the majors or that Moreno missed so much time? Do they think Moreno's thumb injury sapped his power and if so is there any long term concern? Do they think that Thomas hitting .230 was just a fluke or that it indicates a weakness which lowers his future value?
  9. Olerud363
    How many Jays minor leaguers have the same percentage chance of being a decent reliever as Roberto Osuna did? In 2015 Jays tried a Brett Cecil as closer Gave up after he blew like... 1 game? Tied 20 year old Castro as closer Gave up after he blew a game or 2 Tried 20 year old Osuna as closer -- worked Tried Norris and Sanchez as starters didn't work Tried Sanchez as setup man -- worked Tried Pompey as center fielder didn't work Tried Pillar as center fielder -- worked Tried Travis as second basemen -- worked but got injured Tried Goins as second basemen -- worked (that year) What would be the 2022 version of this? Trying Barger, Lopez, Capra as something, and then trying the top 3 pitching prospects in bullpen roles. Or if you didn't want that with Tiedermann, trying all the non-Tiedermann's in bullpen roles. Would you get as good a success rate as in 2015?
  10. Olerud363
    Best you can do is lead off for 162 games. The only other trick to maximize his at bats is to maximize the on base percentage of the other 8 and minimize their double plays as to get the order going around as much as possible. Matt Chapman + cash to Tampa Bay for Yandy Diaz Bo Bichette to Minnesota for Luis Arraez and a reliever and potentially a prospect (maybe Duran, maybe Griffin Jax whatever evens the trade value) Vladimir Guerrero jr ++ to San Diego for Juan Soto (add whatever you need to get Soto's on base) Sign Brandon Nimmo Kirk full time 162 game DH only Sign Carlos Correa Tapia lf Diaz 3b Soto 1b Nimmo cf Kirk dh Arraez 2b Correa ss Jansen/Moreno c Springer rf Springer loses lead-off but get's second leadoff (9th). Guerrero for Soto is key because it get's rid of Guerrero's double plays and adds on base, so need to add prospects to that to make it happen. How many at bats would Tapia get with this line-up?
  11. Olerud363
    FIP isn't everything though because it doesn't account for a fluky homerun rate. There is also xFIP which is ERA assuming an average homerun per flyball rate. Kikuchi's xFIP is not so bad. Even last year it was 4.08. Is xFIP more predictive then FIP? If Kikuchi lowered his walk rate to his career norm, and had an average homerun per flyball he'd be great. He doesn't have to do anything with the walk rate, except return to his career normal, he has to lower the homerun per flyball rate to below his career normal, which may (or may not) be possible. I don't know much about whether homerun per flyball rates are a skill or luck. So there is a chance Kikuchi still might add value and I can see how they evaluated him as having potential.
  12. Olerud363
    And I kind of think, unless there is an obvious advantage for a move, or a crazy pitch count or something, that there is something to be said about guys cleaning up their own mess. Do not get me wrong. If a tanked Gaussman is at 110 pitches and a dynamite reliever is available, or a guy is getting hammered you make the move. However in Situations like last night, and Saturday, where the move may have a very small theoretical advantage, you should let the guy who got into the mess clean it up.
  13. Olerud363
    I am still sure part of the "why", is they had a pre-planned entry point for Mayza as to avoid him facing righties at the top of the order, so going into the game gameplan was Mayza comes in to face 7-8-9. Having bases loaded didn't matter because the same decision would have been planned if it was 2-1, 5-1, or whatever. Mayza comes in for 7-8-9. Did it matter that there were 2 outs? That made it unlikely the inning would reach Julio, but if it did it would be Mayze vs Julio as the tying run. Was it the right decision pre-game or during game? Not saying it was. Just that they may have had a pre-planned entry point based on the 3 batter rule. It turned out Santana was the key at bat. However in other scenarios it could have been Julio having the key at bat.
  14. Olerud363
    This isn't exactly a serious thread. There is a small bit of truth in the comparison with Bautista in that Tapia has very good top exit velocity and distance on his homeruns. From what I have heard that is the entire reason they are playing him so much. They think they can unleash some power with some swing tweaks. I assume they'll move on now but who knows. Also. If this is a serious thread I apologize to the OP for implying it wasn't. I really do believe that with another 600 PAs Tapia's power will be unleashed.
  15. Olerud363
    Adam Frazier... yikes. Brain cramp. I think Adam Frazier was a guy people on the board wanted a year or two ago.
  16. Olerud363
    In a lot of ways he is where Jose Bautista was at the same age. Could you imagine if the 2009 Jays made the playoffs and they had to sub Bautista in? I bet he would have made some glaring mistake and everyone would be like dude... this guy needs to be non-tendered. Tapia, like Bautista has mega raw power that is one swing tweak away from being unleashed. Will he walk 100 times just like Bautista? Of course not. Will he go from a nobody to a homerun title? Unlikely, hardly anyone does. However when the raw power is unleashed he'll be a .290 hitter with 35 homers and no one will care that he doesn't get great jumps.
  17. Olerud363
    After having a couple days to absorb the brutal weekend some things that stood out... 1. Cal Raleigh - Never heard much about him until the last week. 27 homers in 375 at bats, 48 of his 78 hits went for extra bases. Despite hitting .211 his numbers in the minors indicate he isn't a .211 hitter. .320 hitter in aaa with excellent k-rate. He was in every Seattle rally in the series. Every single one. Homer 1st inning of game 1. Single 6th inning rally game 2. Single 8th inning rally game 2. Double and scored winning run. 2. Todd Frazier - got a couple of big hits. He may not be all that, but he is also not really a .230 hitter. 3. Goerge Kirby - got the save in a 1 run game, came out throwing 98 looking like a closer. He was Seattle's 4th starter. Seattle's rotation is like if Pearson and Berrios had worked out in 2022. Imagine Berrios had a normal year for him and was the third starter, and Pearson pitched 130 good innings, was obviously the 4th starter and able to come out of the bullpen.
  18. Olerud363
    Kirk is where Joe Mauer was in 2005 or about where John Olerud was in 1992, or where Luis Arraez was last year. Very similar numbers to those guys, and they started winning battle titles after that. How many guys get to that stage ? Early 20s. More walks than ks, line drive power but not big time power. How do they develop after that on average? Does Kirk's obesity mean that he won't develop even though he has all the indicators of a great hitter?
  19. Olerud363
    It sucks that Moreno was injured most of 2021, and a bit of 2022, and also lost 30 milb games during his 2 stints in Toronto. The thumb injury may have also sapped his power for most of 2022. Saw the raw power that last day in Baltimore. If he had completed his great 2021 milb season, and had more playing time this year he'd be equal to Corbin as a prospect and maybe there is a match there. Despite missing so much time he's still been a top 5 prospect and even flirted with the number 1 spot on some lists when they were reshuffling during the summer.
  20. Olerud363
    You don't trade this package for 1 year of Ian Happ unless you are really convinced that the three prospects are high risk. In particular Barger. It's pretty rare for a middle infielder to show this kind of power and (from what I hear) the average isn't a fluke because he has great exit velocities. I asked around a while ago whether his defense is flawed, and people seemed to indicate it's OK. The only flaw I've heard is that his swing may not play at high levels. However so far so good, including in the AFL. Seems people on the board like the swing, but maybe there is a flaw and you sell high.
  21. Olerud363
    Vinnie Capra and Otto Lopez have played a bit of outfield.
  22. Olerud363
    Maybe Biggio just had a good day. I think the exit velos tilt Raimel's way. At least max exit velo. That's the one thing they like about Raimel. Every month or 2 he hit's one 112 mph and 435 feet.
  23. Olerud363
    Most of Seattle's players are projected to have above average offense. Their offense is actually above average despite many players underperforming their projected batting average. Their team batting average is historically low for a playoff team, but is not historically low relative to league average, they are a .230 hitting team in a .240 hitting league, lot's of teams have made it to the World Series hitting .250 in a .260 hitting league. In terms of walks and power Seattle is above average. They play in a pitchers park which makes their stats look worse. In terms of advanced stats they are a above above average. In terms of projections above average. So by 'stats' Grant means the cherry picking factory in his strange brain which has focused in on their .230 average without using park factors, league norms, projections or advanced stats.
  24. Olerud363
    How much has the baseball world soured on Alek Thomas after his poor rookie showing? According to MLB Trade Rumors they are wiling to deal him and looking for a catcher and right handed hitting outfielder. Which catcher and outfielder would Jays have to give up and is there anything else Jays would want from Arizona? Any way to make a multi-player deal there?
  25. Olerud363
    If you are looking at the zips projections on fangraphs they probably aren't updated yet with 2022 numbers. Kirk is projected for 85 games a year and to hit .255, so that is probably based on his 2021. I can't tell you how Kirk's body will hold up. I suspect other guys similar to him statistically at 23 have had very good careers.
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