Olerud363

Totally get that. Just saying it was weird that they briefly thought that platoon DH was important enough to have Vogelbech and Tellez rostered for 1 week, then traded them both. That being said, if Belt doesn't turn it around, and his replacement is sub replacement, Tellez vs Jays current left handed DHs could be a 2 WAR difference even if Tellez is only 0.5 WAR.

Tricky thing is in 2008 Lind was ready, Travis Snider was almost ready *, and they had Matt Stairs and Brad Wilkerson, guys who they thought had more left than Thomas (though in retrospect they didn't). Behind Belt is who? Horwitz? He probably is a .250 .340 .390 hitter or something... that is like replacement level for a DH, but an improvement on sub-replacement if that is what Belt is. I wonder when they'd pull the trigger on a Belt/Biggio Horwitz/Barger switch (though Barger started slow and seems to be injured now). (* In retrospect Snider was never anything, but what I mean is in 2008 Jays had 2 young left handed hitters who were regarded as having potential, Howritz/Barger/Britton the current crop, are from what I understand a few rungs below where Lind and Snider were rated, so making a move with Belt is harder than with Thomas because he has only been with the team for a few weeks (Thomas was in his second year) and there isn't replacements knocking on the door).

No front office is perfect, but this front office makes a number of moves that make you scratch your head. In late 2020 they for some reason had Vogelbach and Tellez, then by mid 2021 they had neither. Then they get Belt. Not that the handedness is a super-important thing, like if they kept Teo and Gurriel and they hit 50 bombs together and played OK, we'd forget about it... but... Jays left handed homers, for and against must be something like 20-6 this year. In the last 2 games it's been 6-0.

Anyone who has followed the team for decades knows this isn't true. Scoring more runs than the opponent wins divisions and playoffs. Some of the best pitching teams the Jays have had were mediocre (97, 2008) because of hitting problems. I also didn't say that my scenario (Biggio/Belt/Varsho rebound Guerrero/Berrios returns to 2021 form) was the only scenario where they win the division. If Gaussman has a sub 2 ERA, Bo Bichette wins the batting title, Pearson and Pop break out with an elite reliever season, Kirk takes another step forward to become an elite hitter and is an all star again they probably win the division. Teams win the division by a bunch of guys having good seasons and no group of guys having horrible seasons. No magic pitching thing here, it's just run differential. If they score 620 runs and give up 600 they don't win the division. If they score 850 and give up 700 they might. Anyway my scenario was more focusing on the guys who are the weak links with no obvious replacements right now. Team has sub-replacement hitters in Belt, Biggio, Varsho, so it's low hanging fruit for 'self improvement' (they need to rebound). And then Berrios of course, whos underlying metrics seem good, but somehow is still putting up a 5.3 ERA.

Red Sox look like they all of a sudden have an exciting lineup, but their pitching looks horrible. Latter trend will have to change for them to actually be good.

Was he unavailable? The only obvious time to put him in was when it got to 5-5, but Pearson was looking good. If he was unavailable it could be a workload thing. They may not have wanted to use both him and Romero, which would put them both at 3/4 days used, which could have made them unavailable tomorrow, though you don't know what tomorrow will bring... but maybe they have some workload metrics as they likely want to avoid having a reliever go 80 games or 90 innings. Just guessing, don't know for sure.

Not really. If Belt, Biggio, Varsho turned it around and Guerrero and Berrios returned to 2021 form I would actually guarantee they win the division. That would be 2 (Belt), 2 (Biggio), 4 (Varsho), 6 (Guerrero) and 4 (Berrios) = 18 wins. However if those 4 are -1 (Belt), -1 (Biggio), 2 (Varsho), 4 (Guerrero) and 2 (Berrios) = 6 wins. That's a difference of 12 wins. So it's not the two s***** losses that piss away the division, but more like the realization that some of the things that need to happen to win the division aren't happening yet. It may seem strange to mention Guerrero, given he is on pace for a great season, just seems the big time power and clutch hits aren't there yet, and he could easily end up more like 2022 then 2021... hope to be 100% wrong on that.

Honestly though who do you replace him with? 1. Kirk ? - Already doing this a bit, and unless you get another catcher Kirk won't DH much more than he is, and then you are just replacing Belts bat with a backup catcher. 2. Give Merrifield some DH at bats getting Espinal and Biggio in more... but then again essentially replacing Belt with awful hitters. 3. Horwitz - at first glance it seems he could be a Lyle Overbay type -- but I am guessing he just isn't showing quite enough power in the minors for anything to translate... though his line drive bat and plate discipline looks good, but like he's not Lyle Overbay (40 double 18 homer guy) but more like a 5 homer guy, unless somehow his power picks up in the majors. It's like the left handed bats that seemed totally replaceable Vogelbech, Tellez, Noda look good now, though I guess they aren't that good, just some fat guy who can left handed, hit .240 and hit bombs sometime in the 5th inning to make the game 7-4 is useful compared to the .150 hitting crap that we have. What about that kid Roden in Vancouver. lol. Probably better than Belt and Biggio (or maybe not, probably the type that hits .220 when he gets to aa). f***. Why can't we get some Japanese left handed hitter that can hit .280 .380 .450.

Maybe. Hard not to when seeing Red Sox left handed batters hit 430 foot bombs with ease, and real possibility that Biggio and Belt get released (or Biggio sent down). If we are talking about the last 2 games biggest difference maker is lack of hitting from the left side. Mariners - 3 left handed hitters hit homers. Blue Jays left handed hitters can't even get in the game. Red Sox - 3 left handed hitters hit homers to win game. Blue Jays left handed hitters have to be pinch hit for by 5 foot 2 340 pound guy. I see a problem.

OK. Big rant but true. Lost this game because Belt and Varsho suck. Red Sox won because young exciting left handed hitters, hit the ball 430 feet.

They are pissing away the division by not choosing the right left handed hitters. All of a sudden how do the Red Sox have 7 left handed hitters better than any of the Blue Jays four lefties? Verdugo, Yoshida, Devers - Way better than any Blue Jay lefties. Way better. Duran, Cassas, Valdez - Better than any Blue Jays lefties except Varsho if he turns it around Reese Mcguire - Better than Biggio and Belt. And maybe better than Keirmair and even Varsho if he doesn't turn it around Reese Mcguire is like a .260 .310 .380 guy life time and honestly are any Blue Jays left handed hitters doing better than that this year? Like even if Varsho recovers he may have an off year and struggle to beat Reese because 20% of the season is in the books and that will weight him down. Red Sox offense looks good, and their pitching? Haven't thought much about it, but hell, they are probably looking at Berrios, Basitt and Manoah and not scared. Like is there a reason that Bassitt is for sure destined to be better than Kluber. I don't care much about single losses but this Red Sox team looks a lot better than I thought it would with a bunch of young interesting left handed bats. 1 game. Maybe I'm over-reacting.

I'm ironically using the eye test (or memory test here) just thinking that Jansen was catching the ALWC2 and thinking a couple of weeks ago of watching a game where the Jays had the bases loaded no one out, didn't score, then Jansen caught a bad bullpen inning in Houston. So my impression is that Jansen was catching some bad innings... but the data may not back me up as you pointed out. Did Rayleigh hit a slider for the double off Romano in ALCW2? I can't remember. That is all a blur (and was also 7 months ago)

You mentioned something about substitutions, however it wasn't clear that you accounted for them or not. Jansen's worst game came when he subbed in late for Kirk in Houston and caught Pop and Cimber, and in fact that was the single worst bullpen inning this season. That would make a big difference, but maybe you accounted for it. Anyway, I don't actually have strong feelings on this, other than to point out Jansen had 2 recent bullpen blowups, one of them being the most important bullpen blow up in the franchises history. So I don't have the impression he or Kirk is that much better than the other.

I've heard this quite a bit, but I don't think it is true. Jansen caught game 2 ALWC last year. Kirk caught the bullpen blow up in Anaheim where the Jays ended up winning (because he pinch hit for Jansen) Jansen caught the blow up in the 8th inning in the third game at Houston (because Espinal pinch ran for Kirk).

Didn't the second base umpire call the balk? He motioned with his hands and then everyone chilled.... Vlad slowed down and the infielders stood in place so they all had to know that the count was full and play was dead either because Merrifield walked or a balk. When Merrifield didn't walk Vlad at the very least should have spoke up, as he obviously knew it was 3-2. Isn't WP win probability? So isn't the calculation based on some runs scored expectation? So no one on 1-2 count the bad call makes it 2-2 no one on. So expected runs scored in the inning probably only goes from 0 to 0.1 or something. There are many ways it could be done 1. Assign Umpire only a fraction of blame for the walk (because Bassitt still had a 2-2 count and was responsible for 3/4 balls) 2. Assign Umpire full responsibility for the walk but assign Bassitt responsibility for everything else. 3. Assign Umpire full responsibility for everything that happens the rest of the inning. It's done the first way I think. Assumes every bad call that seems game changing is only game changing because someone made a bunch of other screwups later in the chain, and the ump screw up is not assigned any special level of blame compared to the other screw ups (like hitting Teoscar, and obviously giving up a homer). Different then the way errors are done in ERA with a 2-out error, getting the pitcher off the hook even if he walks 3 guys and gives 4 homers after the error. Doesn't really account for the extra fatigue the ump screw up causes, but one can argue that Bassitt was also contributing to the extra fatigue with all the balls he threw after too, so the ump screw up is only part of the problem.

It is impossible to have the exact same game twice. However what a kick in the nuts this was. So many elements the same as the game 2 playoff loss. 1. In both Games Santiago Espinal made the exact same error. In the ALWC it was in the first and cost Gausman some pitches, and ultimately led to Gausman facing the 'Tallet lane' one inning sooner. Good chance Gausman makes it through 6 without the error., Yesterday Espinal made the error in the 8th. Haven't looked at the video of the ALWC error, but my memory says it was the exact same type of grounder. 2. In both Games Bass pitches the 8th with no swing and miss. 3. In both games Jays hammer a lefty for 8 runs early and then only one (in ALWC) and no (yesterday) add in runs as they get shut down by righties (even the mediocre ones). 4. Both games Crawford drives in the tying run. 5. Both games big crowd has life sucked out of them. 6. Both games end on a routine fly ball to center with winning run at the plate. 7. Both games Whit Merrifield removed in sub-optimal way (should have been Brodley in there in ALWC, should have removed Espinal instead yesterday).

Why didn't Mayza face Crawford? I guess they didn't want him potentially facing Saurez. Jays didn't add any runs after the third. Did not use their left handed bats Belt, Biggio or Kiermair (until he was a defensive sub). No reason for that at all. If you still believe in Belt and Biggio they should be in this game. Good start to the season overall but lack of any good left handed batters is going to be a problem. If they already are so down on Belt and Biggio they won't pinch hit them for Jansen or atleast Espinal it's an issue. Frustrating to see Gallo and Bellinger off to hot starts. Need a left handed hitter that can do damage.

After his worst stretches in 2019 and 2020 Vlad superficially looked worse than Walker does now, hitting .220 over his first 25 or so games in both 2019 and 2020. The fact he dominated aa and aaa a bit more than Walker could have been an argument in favor of sending him down as you could say Vlad was farther from his potential than Walker is, so why waste service time when he was playing at replacement level?? Julio Rodriquez was worse over his first 20 games last year. Kelenic was way worse and given way more rope (though was eventually sent down a couple of times after hitting sub .200 through a couple hundred at bats). Just seems an unusual way to treat a young player after 20 games. I totally get he probably wasn't playing as well as the .275 batting average indicated. However traditionally once calling a young player up, teams don't send them down until it's glaringly obvious they need to be down. Plus isn't there like some incentives to keep a guy up the whole year? Like they get a draft pick if he finishes in top 3 rookie of the year. Would have made more sense to give him 20 more games and then evaluate.

What is going on with the farm system? Usually I don't even have to check minor league box scores because the board bumps this thread when anyone of interest goes 1/3. Thread is hardly ever bumped anymore. So I went to check the minor league box scores myself and no runs scored yet except in Dunnedin, but Toman, the most interesting prospect there is 0 for 2 and hitting sub .200. Only good news is Mitch White seems to be handling A-ball OK. It's early but how can the entire organization be in a deep slump except for a couple of college kids in Vancouver?

This has only happened once this year, the Houston game. But you can't say it was an awful move replacing Berrios with Pop, given the performance of Berrios the last 18 months. The stats show starters will get wrecked 4th time through the order so you keep them in their you will probably get burned more than by going to the pen, even if the pen isn't elite.

Is there more to the story? He was hitting .274 with great exit velocities, apparently not the greatest d, and not huge power despite the exit velocity. Vlad would have been sent down several times in 2019 and 2020 if they had decided to send him down when he was about where Walker is right now.

Jays only have 2 blown saves all year. No reliever has coughed up a lead after the starter was cruising. The blown saves were both in wild games, one of them by Romero. The only thing that comes close to this is the Saturday game where Manoah was pulled in a 0-0 tie. A 0-0 tie with the home team coming up in the bottom of the 8th is a game the Jays only had a 40% chance of winning, so even in that situation he didn't "blow" a game, but 40% of a game. And that is silly. Teams aren't going to win every close game. Jays are actually letting their pitchers go further in games than most other teams. The team that lets their pitches not go far at all is called the Rays. And that approach seems to be working for them.

Not sure that is true. Ozzie Smith, Devon White, Kiermaier, Prince Fielder didn't have a tonne of variation. So the system is consistent for the good and bad outliers. Chapman is 30, maybe already lost a bit. I can recall off-hand a couple of plays he didn't make this year. One in the second game that led to Gausman un-earned runs, and one Monday, there's probably more. On the other hand he made some great throws yesterday so arm strength is still there. A few bad plays early in the season can probably skew things. Maybe same with Varsho. Vlad defense has been pretty consistently rated bad. Maybe he just doesn't have great mobility, even for a first basemen, but looks great because he has elite hand eye coordination.

The other night Isiah Kiner-Falefa made a spectacular dive and the Yankees broadcaster were going on and on about how well he's adjusted to the outfield. Then I saw somewhere else the catch was actually 99% catch probability, looking back at it you could tell he got a bad jump, but hard to tell in the moment. I mostly just look at the defense column on fangraphs and they always seem to make roughly make sense. With some exceptions the players that are regarded as good defensively score high, are somewhat consistent year to year, start to degrade as they get into their 30s. I honestly don't know exactly how these systems work. It would be nice to see some video of the top plays the guys are either getting penalized or rewarded for. Get a better understanding of which plays Vlad not making.

Is Bass really on the bereavement list? I thought it was a joke that he was on the bereavement list because Tucker Carlson got fired. Don Lemon got fired, isn't that weird that it happened on the same day? Wasn't even aware Lemon did anything bad. I mean, like our overlords made a deal or something, they'd fire Carlson but wanted Lemon gone to as compensation.