Olerud363

Don't forget Otto Lopez (Canadian guy too, parents lived in Montreal for a while or something) Espinal - .286 .340 .392 minor league hitter with 129/222 bb/k and 44/24 sb/cs 14 games in the outfield, 262 at shortstop Otto - .305 .372 .420 minor league hitter with 163/265 bb/k and 77/33 sb/cs 109 games in the outfield, 127 at shortstop There is a chance Otto is a faster better Espinal that can cover outfield but can't play short as well in a pinch.

No kidding. I saw this and had to read it about 15 times to try and figure out if he was really saying something so dumb. Basically since the last trade deadline they lost Gurriel, Hernandez and Tapia and replaced them with Varsho, Kiermairer, Merrifield and Belt. In terms of WAR the new group has every chance of being better. In fact this is such a deep team the Jays have every chance of being near the top again, because they'll be able to mix and match given who is performing. It's a dumb stat anyway because Tapia was just barely above replacement, so there were 500 PAs there that just made 'the cut'. Pretty unlikely they'll have someone as bad as Tapia taking up 500 PAs this year.

Also players that reach the stage of G. Martinez and Brown (hitting decent in high A) have a really high chance of getting a cup of coffee within 2 years, even if they aren't destined to be regulars. Lot's of the failures will never even make it to the hitting well in A+ stage, but if you make it to that stage you probably have like 95% chance of making AA in a 2 years, 70% chance of making AAA in 2 years and maybe around 50% of making the majors in 2 years. The chances of ever being a regular are probably way, way lower though. Someone has probably done the research I'm just guessing at those numbers based on watching games on TV and looking at baseball reference 4 times a week.

Not sure that logic makes sense, because they already made it to high A at 19/20, no reason they won't be here in 2024. Trip from a-ball to the majors is often done in 2 years no matter what the players age. Biggio, Vlad, Bo, Kirk, Moreno, Travis Snider, Anthony Gose, Dalton Pompey, Devon Travis. All different ages (and caliber of prospects) but took about the same time from A ball to first at-bats in the majors. Even Anthony Alford who came up in another thread was 2 years from A to majors (once he quit football) (then after arriving in 2017 got a hamate injury after his first hit). I agree any number of road blocks can stop these players, and even if they make the majors they may (or probably will) not stick. However it would be pretty normal to see both these guys get some at bats in 2024.

Honestly not sure if there is some background here but why is this trolling? I have spent a lot of time in Boston including visiting Havard and MIT to work with researchers, running the Boston marathon many times. It is a hive of progressive love there, at least in that sub-culture. Bauer would not be accepted by most Boston fans. I mean obviously some would accept him, just as I am sure some on this board would be fine with Bauer (but most wouldn't). In the midwest he would be more accepted. I have a lot of relatives in the mid-west and it is forgive and move on. They are Trump people out there, and you know, Trump has 14 accusations of whatever against him and they are all... OK. Move on. Let's go. Am I wrong?

Good question. Rumor is it was his ankle which was surgically repaired several years ago. I'd be interested if anyone knows more. Seems weird that they are concerned if the surgery was a few years ago, and he's recovered fine. I saw some expert speculation that it could be arthritis developing in the ankle. Could be they detected the beginning of arthritis and are concerned what will happen another 5 years down the road. Could also be something with the pins not looking right.

A large part of that is determined by the owner not the fanbase. The Celtics just suspended Udoka for a year, not sure that chimes with Boston accepting degenerates. The Yankees accepted Chapman until his performance degraded. According to Wilner that was unacceptable. The Yankee fanbase in my experience is far more degenerate than Boston's. In Boston you have a lot of University "trust the science" types, Havard, MIT, etc. In Yankees fandom you have a lot of degenerate Wall Street Stock bros who think Bauer is innocent and the vaccine kills you. Obviously a fan base is made of many factions. There are degenerates in every fanbase, including Toronto's. Perhaps because Fenway is near a lot Universities and downtown the crowd trends young and what degenerates there are, are loud and obvious, while say in Kansas City, the degenerates are quieter and not as obvious (though there are more). Based on my experience Bauer would be far more accepted in the midwest.. mostly because there is a 'do your time, then come back' attitude, not this disown your Dad for life because he voted for Trump attitude we see in the Northeast.

Have you ever even spent time in New England? It is arguably the most progressive region of the United States. It is so progressive even the Republicans have to be sane. This is the region where the people voted for Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. And many of the progressives are baseball fans, so this fanbase would probably be as upset as any if a controversial figure like Bauer was on the team. Are you seriously suggesting the New England fanbase would care less about this issue then the St. Louis or Kansas City or Astros fanbase?

The Seattle thing apparently stems from last year (2021) where Grant got into it with someone (not me) about the Mariners being a fluke. The weird thing is he was actually right in 2021 but he has continued the Seattle is awful narrative through 2022 when it no longer made sense. His dig at Seattle is just a passive aggressive continuation of that argument. I haven't followed the board closely but I am curious if Grant ripped the Varsho trade with the same passion he ripped Seattle in the fall?? His argument in the fall was Seattle had an historically low batting average (.230) so was an awful offensive team, even though they were an above average offensive team factoring in walks, power, park factors and 2022 norms. So does he hate Varsho? If he hates low batting averages, even if they come with power, a few walks and defense, he should hate Varsho, as Varsho is like a 2022 Mariner... If he doesn't hate Varsho then that seems strange, given his hate of the .230 batting average no matter what else it comes with.

But to be fair you have to take the corresponding worst loss out as well. I believe it was 12-0. But some years the worse loss is 21-2 or something and everyone says you can't use the expected W-L because the worse loss was so bad. So the worst loss and best win was 28-17 or something... so there was a asymmetry but not that dramatic.

It might depend what you think of Biggio as an outfileder and whether you'd put Belt in left field for 10 games (he's played 90 outfield career and played there as recently as 2019). Belt could DH 60 games, 1b 40 games and outfield 10. Then you would have Biggio and Merrifield as the backup outfielder. It also probably depends on whether you can trade a catcher. Otherwise with all 3 of them a catcher is taking up some DH time.

What happens when they release the player in 8 years? For example with Correa will his 28 million average salary count against the luxury tax?

I think they are talking an off year in terms of payroll to reset the luxury tax. Will be interesting to see if they win 100 games anyway.

We won't know if those advantages are gone for another couple of years. They are only 1 year into a rebuild and if it works as it has before the 2025 team will surprise. Quick glance at Esteury Diaz - 85 stolen bases, line drive power, .447 on base percentage. I am guessing based his ranking and the reaction of people on the board the park factors, the batted ball data, pre-2022 performance, scouting reports are all not as glowing as last years stats scouting report. On the other with rule changes (shift and larger bases), continued decreased levels of offense, it could turn out this guy's skills will play well going forward. I don't know. If they still have an information edge this is what it looks like.. people surprised at the move because the information it is based on is not known yet.

They'll probably be back in the playoffs in 2 years. In their 2014/15 trades they got Semien, Basset, Sean Manaea, and built the 2018-2021 winning team. Even though they screwed up the Donaldson trade the process over that year worked as they got a playoff team again quickly. So if they follow the usual pattern 2023 and 24 will be bad, the geniuses on this board will say how their process sucks, then they'll make the playoffs in 2025 with a bunch of surprises.

I don't see how he is breaking the politics rule... the rule allows passive aggressively talking left wing politics but does not allow any right wing politics. Implying inflation is caused by Putin is totally within the rules, now if you were to respond implying that inflation was caused by policy mistakes by the Bank of Canada and Trudeau that would be out of line and you would get the lifetime ban.

Tony Clark was super tall and listed at 6'8" 205. Done at 35, however I am sure that is pretty typical. Delgado was done at 35 or 36 too. I have to think Tony Clark was way heavier. Can't see a 6 foot 8 guy only being 205. Good chance Judge is done at 35 but only because half of players are, even great ones. Wow. If you look at when guys had their last healthy season when they were the guy they were at 30 it's scary A-Rod - 34 Cabrera - 33 Pujols - 32 Prince - 28? What are they doing signing guys to these contracts? Are there some data points that say it's worth it? Am I only cherry picking the worst? Seems some organizations, like Houston, maybe Boston have just said f***-it, we aren't touching this stuff. Maybe Toronto is there too explaining the inaction.

McGuire broke down completely during his age 36 season. He was still great then but I remember by the end of that season he could only pinch hit (though he had no DH rule). If Judge followed that pattern he'd have 5 great years, one half great season and then be done.

The 70-75% chance of getting guy out (when you don't walk him) includes chasing balls out of the zone, and soft contact or missing tough pitches at the edge of the zone. If you challenge a good hitter it's more like only a 55% chance of getting him out. Good hitters hit .450 .450 1.000+ when challenged.

Really surprised no one took Gabriel Martinez in the rule V. Seems really advanced as a 19 year old hitter but must not scout well. Like you'd think Oakland or someone would have taken a flier.

Huhh? You were the one who literally said "a walk is the worse thing that can happen". If you look at the stats casts pages of guys having good years you can easily see why batting order protection isn't a thing. They cream pitches in their hot spots and hit like .450 .450 .800 or something, on tough pitches out of the zone, they don't take them 100% of the time and hit like .200 .500 .300 or something. Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez had ridiculous stats in their hot spots, like .450 .450 slugging over 1000. However outside the zone they lose a lot of power, and it's not like they walk almost all the time on pitches out of the zone. If Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez were hitting back to back, it wouldn't make any sense to change the pitching pattern to the one in front. Here is a concrete example. Josh Donaldson 2015. One could say he won the MVP because he saw great pitches to hit with Bautista and EE behind him. Would that make any sense though? Say hypothetically a pitching pattern existed which made Donaldson the 2014 version or the 2015 version. Why would they not use the 2014 pitching pattern all the time? It makes him a worse player. It's more complicated than that in reality, just pointing out the 'logic' of lineup protection doesn't make sense.

Maybe that's how it works in pee wee baseball but in MLB with professional scouts and data analysts they know a single is worse than a walk. If someone used your philosophy in real life you'd have ridiculous situations like the following.... a) Juan Soto is on the opposition team You have a great scouting report and he hits .240 .400 .450 off your staff c) Aaron Judge get's signed by San Diego d) You start pitching to Soto, because walks are bad, especially in front of Judge, but now Soto gets more singles, more extra base hits, still walks a bit (but not as much) and hits. .300 .400 .550 e) the opposition team score more runs A coaching staff that did this would get fired, and replaced by a good staff with common sense, better scouting reports and a better idea how runs are scored.

The same logic applies even with guys like Soto, who lay off balls. It's not that you don't want the guy taking a walk, it's that you don't want him on base. Soto was pitched really tough last year and hit .240 .400 .440... if they groove him pitches he might hit .300 .420 .500, grooving pitches (when there is a great hitter protecting him) is counter productive because even though he'll walk a little less he might get on base more with a higher average.

What about simple logic? What reason is there to ever pitch to a guy with any pitch sequence other than the one that scouting and data say is most likely to get him out? Last year they pitched Guerrero tough and were more successful with him then 2021. Say Jays get Aaron Judge and put him behind Guerrero... why would pitchers change their approach to Guerrero from the 2022 approach (assuming it still worked) ? If they give Guerrero better pitches to hit maybe he hits .300 again with 40 homers. Wouldn't they want to keep Guerrero as a .270 hitter with 30 homers? Wouldn't they want use the pitching pattern that works? Maybe for Juan Soto it's different because he walks so much. I don't know. Hypothetically let's say last year he had a bad year because pitchers discoveres some weaknesses, and he hit .240 .400 .440. Why change it even if he has a great hitter behind him? Giving him better pitches to hit might make Soto a .300 hitter with more power.

The 2012 Blue Jays were such a disappointment. Everyone but EE under-performed big time. They had 2 TJs in a week. Travis D'Arnaud got a season ending injury 2 days before he was suppose to be called up. Everybody under-performed. Was excited about that team, lot a young players, lot of intriguing guys. Good right/left balance. Thought they had some pitching. Like every player under-performed and crashed. Henderson Alvarez. Looked good in 10 starts in 2011 and was terrible in 2012 Then they tried to acquire the all star track team and that didn't work either.