Olerud363

When I went on Twitter a.k.a. X this morning Bellinger is "trending", and f***ing Bleacher Report or some s*** is saying he is "visiting Toronto". It's all happening again. Not that I care that much about Bellinger given his crazy up and downs just the "visiting Toronto" s***.

Great news guys. The tweeters are saying that Cody Bellinger is visiting Toronto and is about to sign on the dotted line for a 10 year 450 million dollar contract but it's payable over 75 years so according to the luxury tax it's like he signed for 3 million a year, that leaves room to also give 10 year 550 million dollar contract to Blake Snell and a 10 year 475 million dollar contract to Josh Hader. This is truly an MLB landscape changing trio of deals which in terms of total impact is much better than signing just Ohtani. When these deals are signed Jays will trade Manoah and a few other to the White Sox for their best players. All this has been confirmed by J.P. Morosi and @JeffPassan450, @JeffPassan751, and @therealJeffPassan on twitter and Instagram. Dodgers Nation is also reporting the Jays have signed Yamamoto to a 650 million dollar contract. After the Ohtani thing all these outlets are on their best behavior so these reports can now be thought of as 100% reliable. Please other teams do not waste your time making last minute counter offerrs to these players. This is not a joke, no one is using Toronto to ramp up free agent prices, all these fantastic moves are 100% real and reliable.

Perhaps some idiots are mad because we didn't get him. However the majority are mad because of the way it was reported, which is totally justifiable. A cardinal rule of life is that you do not give big news, good or bad, that is not true. No excuse at all. Imagine you are going in for a cancer test, and the doc says all clear, you celebrate for an hour, then they call you back. Sorry you got 6 months to live. Imagine you make a pitch for life changing venture capitol for your company, and your banking partner tells you they got a couple of million from an Angel investor... then 10 hours later calls you back, no they invested in another company. In baseball terms this is a franchise changing signing, and the reporting was unacepteble and immoral. Probably no reason to be mad at the Blue Jays management for this one. But mad at reporters? Mad at Ohtani's agents (if they had a role in letting the 'confirmed to Blue Jays' narrative get out of hand). Mad at Dodgers Nation? Hell yes. Who the hell really knows how intentional all this was by these parties. Even the reasonable posters like Laika seem to be implying there was a little nefarious actions on their part. Not acceptable at all in anyway. Multiple people should be fired and told they have to go live in van down by the river. Biggest flaw in our society is there is no intermediate punishment between jail and getting off scott-free. When you mis-behave you should be fined a total equal to your net-worth, then have to go live in a van by the river. This is what should happen to Ohtani's agent and several reporters.

I have a friend who has a friend who does setup for big bands and concerts. What he is telling me is that this morning he was called in for a impromptu Bryan Adams rehearsal for an unscheduled performance tonight. He was told that they are rehearsing the late Tina Turner's "Simply the best" (which as far as I know Adams has not covered before) and also "Never be another tonight". If you remember "Never be another tonight" was played in a coke commercial literally the first commercial break after Blue Jays won the 1992 World Series.

Also. Some Random guy on Twitter claims he has contacts in immigration and they are working on a visa for Ohtani. Not sure if this would be legit. Do you really have to get the visa before signing. I don't know. If I am coming over to University of Toronto to teach in their women's studies department to give a course on toxic masculinity (with the evolution of this board as a prime example) and will be getting 300k for 6 months work do they have to approve me for Visa first if I am coming in from Wichita KS? A bit off topic but the course is great. Really goes through the evolution of a lot of you fellows after the board reached peak toxic level in 2020, and then a bunch of the alpha-fems made new rules to make it a safer place.

There was also the Yu Darvish. 12 years ago pretty much to the day, pretty much the same weekend. The Friday was EXACTLY like this. Several almost confirmed rumors that the Blue Jays had offered a spectacular amount for the posting fee, and on the Friday morning all Jays fans thought 100% they had him. Waiting for the announcement but it never came. Then gradually over the weekend there was some other announcement that it would be announced like Monday or Tuesday night at 10:00 pm. So all the Jays fans just waiting and waiting for that moment. Then Tuesday at 9:58 pm Kevin Gray announces it is official. So much celebration. So much happiness. For 2 minutes. Until the real announcement comes and he is with the Rangers. I wonder if Jays did bit 50 million but rangers I think were just over 50 million by a trivial amount just to beat anyone else who 50 million.

If the Yankees have an unlimited payroll than does the surplus value matter?.... not sure if they have a limit this year, but if they've decided to go over the luxury tax and don't care home much then this doesn't stop them from spending more. Like if the Mariners got him and had a 180 million dollar payroll then they can't get something better with that 33 million... but the Yankees can still get whatever else they want (I think).

Judge .288 44 102 .422 on base Soto (prime) .325 .470 52 homers Yankess 110 wins. Orioles 108 wins, Rays 99 wins Jays 84 wins (sign Teo back and combined with Varsho they hit .220 with 39 homers) Ohtani to Dodgers Jays Bo/Vlad years = 0 playoff wins and so much sadness, but so much joy for the Yankee fans... they do not every have more than 1 down season.

The reason is Cronenworth had only mildly negative defense (compared to Vlad's titanic at the bottom of the sea bad defense) and OK baserunning. Shows a 1b men hitting .280 .340 .420 with good defense and baserunning does work in terms of the math. That type of player is kind of rare because if they are good at defense they usually play somewhere else. But Howritz could work out with 12 homers, if he hit well otherwise, played good 1b defense and wasn't a disaster on the basepaths.

Is Cronenworth signed long term? Amazingly as mostly a 1b hitting .229 .312 .380 with 10 homers and negative defense he tied Vlad with 1 fWAR. lol.

If I remember correctly in those days simply money would have likely got it done. They had to offer a posting fee, the Japanese team took the highest posting fee, then they got a negotiating window, in which they usually had to give the player a free agent like contract (or they could go back to Japan). So it was super-expensive, but a team willing to give up the money got the player. It turned out to be (just looked it up) a 51.7 million posting fee and a 60 million contract, which amounted to a 6 year 110 million deal, pretty expensive for an unknown. I wonder what the Jays bid? I think there was a rumor they bid 50 million (which they might have) and everybody thought that was crazy so assumed they won the bid. Maybe they bid 51.6. That would have been funny.

I love Rogers. I love Shapiro. I'm glad they fired Ben Wagner. He wasn't a team player. Maybe they fired Wagner because they new they needed the booth free for the Japanese broadcast team that will be doing every game when Ohtani signs. I also heard home plate lady was kicked out because they will giving Ohtani the section behind homeplate as part of his deal. Whatever the case the higher ups working for Rogers and the Canadian government are some of the finest men I have served with. And I don't mean that literally, such fine people would never serve along side an undesirable like me. Just a figure of speech. They are fine people who Ohtani would be proud to serve with.

ChatGPT would fit right in. It is totally biased in favor of large corporations like Rogers. I asked chatGPT about this whole situation and I got a totally corporate friendly response from chat, a real ******* if there ever was one. User Horrible news. Due to corporate corruption at ROgers, and due to the advancements in AIs like the chatGPT created by Sam Altman, beloved Blue Jays broadcaster Ben Wagner has lost his job, and the games apparently will be announced by a chatGPT like AI. Please say how you will announce the intro to the 1st Blue Jays game, when the fans after a hard winter of working (most of them are still working people) listen in and expect to here Wagner, but instead get you, chatGPT. And also explain to them why, because of a corporate renovation the seats in front of homeplate are now 130,000 a year (enough to cover Wagner's salary) but the beloved homeplate lady, who had seats behind homeplate since 1977 is now kicked out of her seat and is in the bleachers. ChatGPT I can understand how that news might feel unsettling, especially for fans who've grown accustomed to familiar voices like Ben Wagner's. If I were stepping in to announce the first Blue Jays game, I'd start by acknowledging the legacy of Ben Wagner and the warmth he brought to the broadcasts. I'd express gratitude for his contributions and assure the fans that while change can be difficult, I'm here to do my best in continuing the tradition of delivering an exciting game. Regarding the corporate renovations affecting seating, it's a challenging situation. The increase in prices might seem steep, and the displacement of long-standing fans, like the homeplate lady, is certainly disheartening. I'd explain that often, these decisions are driven by business considerations, trying to balance financial needs against preserving the spirit of the game. I'd emphasize the importance of every fan's connection to the team, regardless of where they sit in the stadium. Their support and passion are what truly matter. It's tough when changes like this occur, but I'd encourage everyone to come together as a community, celebrating the team and the sport they love. Ultimately, the game remains a unifying force, bringing people from all walks of life together to share in the joy and excitement of baseball.

Yes. And without being too over the top here, the secondary point is these used to be jobs for life, where the broadcaster would become part of the community. I make fun of Wilner sometimes, his super positive somewhat lefty twitter gig is easy to make fun of, but he shouldn't be a random podcaster. Ben Wagner and Mike Wilner should have had a 35 year run. These guys need years to become really good, and years for us to become familiar with them and loved and then god willing last until they are 78, and step aside for a young one then... or if they don't want to step aside just go till they croak at 88. https://torontosun.com/sports/baseball/toronto-blue-jays/sportsnet-pulls-plug-on-radio-wagner

Probably Wagner was earning 120,000 or something, which is good money for fly-over America, but like Poverty level for Toronto, and he asked for 150,000 or something so he could at least buy a god-damn meal at Wendy's in GTA. Some Rogers f***ER who was earning 1.2 million in Salary for doing f***ing nothing, other than being privileged ******* fired Wagner for some poor ******* who would do it for 90k because it is a dream job. f*** YOU. THE GREED IS OUT OF CONTROL. And obviously Shapiro was involved somewhow. What f***ing maniacs these people are. It's not just money, because who cares if they saved even 100k. That's meaningless. It's about them garnishing their ill-gotten power over the good common people like Mike Wilner, and Ben Wagner. And don't f***ing marginalize what is happening, you may be comfy right now, but unless you are earning at least 500k and your boss is "the boss" you may be eliminated any time in a corrupt power game.

Are you f***ing kidding me? First Wilner? Now Wagner? You f***ing corrupt ugly morons Rogers should RESIGN!!!! pant, pant (I don't know who exactly should resign but some ugly, stupid, greedy, dumb, privileged person in a suit). OK. Here it is. 1977 to 2004 TOM CHEEK. 1980 to 2015 JERRY HOWARTH. Then Mike Wilner was like their side kick and started doing some play by play. Was Wilner good? Probably not. Did WIlner love his job and was passionate? Hell YES! Did Wilner grow on you (as a play by play guy) YES! Wilner was like a connection to the past and was set up for the future. He would have got better... then I guess came a few random guys after Jerry retired. Or did Wagner come right after? Wagner was now growing on us. THEY ARE f***ING SUPPOSED TO KEEP THESE GUYS UNTIL THEY DIE!!!!!!!! It's supposed to be the voice of a generation. Wilner and Wagner should have both been given a contract for life until they died at 88. Jesus. What a f***ing pathetic, discusting, bat-s*** corrupt world we live in. Fast food like 40 bucks for a meal, and announcers fired after 5 years. Disgusting.

He was fourth in the international league in on base percentage. Horwitz was first. Lantigua was also 4th in doubles. Not sure what it all means. One thing I was thinking is that the offensive numbers were bat-s*** crazy in the IL this year, so don't take them seriously. But... Howritz and Lantiqua were still league leaders. Not like they came 18th in on base or something. Still have to treat them as league leaders, however meaningful that is.

The weird thing is as far as I can tell, other than the Guerrero thing LTBF is not Grant. Does not seem to be illogical in any other context. Alonso can barely hit .200? 1. His worst batting average was .217, his life time batting average is .250 2. He is a slightly better lifetime hitter than Vlad, because he has way more power (.363 wOBA to .360 wOBA) 3. He is a better overall player than Vlad with 14 fWAR in 683 games compared to 10 fWAR in 660 games. 4. Next year they are projected to be about the same, Vlad maybe a bit better. 5. Vlad has 2 years left, Alonso 1. Now they are about the same, 2 years is better than 1, so one for one, stupid trade obviously. Haven't really thought much about McNeil/Manoah, other than seems the board might think McNeil is too weak to do anything in his mid 30s (Jason Kenall for example). But to say Alonso can barely hit .200 is really stupid. He hit 17 points above .200 with great power, at his absolute worst. He hit 50 points above .200 for 2500 at bats.

Doesn't Spencer project better than most of those guys? No idea what his defense is like and I guess he can't play any other positions.

Jays just won the division with a 1 WAR first basemen. Lyle Overbay beat that 7 times. Overbay had a wRC+ over 120 twice, and 119 another time. Despite being almost as bad as 2023 Vlad at defense and baserunning, Overbay regularly beat the 2023 version of Vlad in WAR. If Howritz could hit like Overbay and have just mildly negative defense and baserunning he'd be fine. John Olerud, Marc Grace, Yandy Diaz, Keith Hernandez good examples of how that type of player can succeed at first. Average, walks, doubles, good 1b defense, smart baserunning, that type of player can have MVP like seasons (Hernadez, Olerud) or if not that talented, certainly 'regular on a contender type seasons' even without big time power. Rowdy Tellez wasn't as good a minor league hitter as Howritz. Telles was .270 .350 .450 and Horwitz .300 .410 .460. Instead of comparing Horwitz to Rowdy Tellez make a list of the 10 other guys who hit like Horwitz at around the same ages and take the median outcome.

Jays have 6 guys (Schneider, Howritz, Barger, Roden, Palmegianni, and Orelvis Martinez) in the upper minors. Don't need all 6 to make it, so you really are more interested in the max 2 of the 6. Horwitz' 50% percentile projection (like .260 .350 .400) could be a regular on a contender, though not a key piece (1.5 WAR). However what we are more interested in is his 80th% projection which is probably more like prime Lyle Overbay. A contender isn't going to play all 6 at their 50th percentile percentile, but play the two that over-achieve. Everyone knows the minors is a game of failure but Howritz has made it through most steps and is exactly the same as Lyle Overbay at the same age (dynamite numbers in a high offense environment). Schneider is comparable to maybe Dan Ugla (a little ahead actually). It's good news these guys have made it this far. Maybe they won't make the next step (productive every day player) but they could. It's not written in stone they are their 50th percentile zips projection, there is still variability good and bad ahead.

The Stroman trade looks better in the context that Berrios was good in 2023. It was part of a series of moves which depend on Berrios' performance as to how we grade them. In July 2019 Atkins had Marcus Storman, a top 5 pick, and 120 million to spend on a big contract. In 2022 from all that he had Berrios. That Berrios' was much better in 2023 made that series of moves look a little better.

Don Mattingly guide to hitting 1. Have 99.9th percentile hand eye coordination 2. Transport yourself to 1985 before they had 4 inning starters with filthy stuff followed by random relievers who threw 100, and before they data analyzed your every weakness.

Roberts has a 30-175 bb/k ratio and an injury history. They get a pitcher with best prospect in baseball stuff (but not health), a prospect with as much power and exit velocity as anyone in minor league baseball, who had a great last 4 months of the season and a Fernando Tatis style wild card... These star for 3 prospects trades are tough to really figure out... Sometimes it's like they'd ask for Jackson Holliday and other top 10 prospects, probably not get them, then move on to a 3-1 with guys with high ceilings.

I don't understand what you mean by regardless of talent. Kirk is a more talented player than Moreno and unfortunately is struggling with a weight problem. Most Jays fans appreciate Kirk because of the all-star appearance, the elite bat to ball skills and the elite framing, they understand also that a severe weight issue may end his career really early, and we may be seeing the beginning of the end already at 24. This has become my pet peeve lately because multiple good posters are just framing this narrative wrong.