Olerud363

Right. The only way to stop this trend is to have a dictatorship. Free market will just drift to the optimal solution. As people well know most of my baseball views were shaped by the fall of the Pat Gillick Blue Jays into the 30 year ongoing mess that we have now (a couple of extra wild cards have made the up years look better, but same s*** since 1994). I go on and on about how Cito 'ruined' Olerud, Green, Snider and others... but he also ruined Juan Guzman and Pat Hentgen. I'm not so hard on him for this, because in the mid 90s the limits for starting pitchers weren't as much public knowledge as they are now I guess. Never going back to a system where Cy Young contenders like Guzman (92 and 96) and Hentgen (94 and 96) struggle to put up back to back good years and are done at 28. That will happen still but teams just aren't going back to having it happen after a guy pitches 250 innings, or a workload he can't handle. And not just health but performance. Look at the recently completed world series. Galen throwing no hitter, cruising through 6 then implodes. Evaldi cruising in game 1 I think then implodes. How the hell do you 'know' if the cruising pitcher is going to implode? Guys look great through 4 of 5 routinely look terrible in inning 6 or 7. When the pitcher gets pulled early people complain, but when left in too long they don't care. That's the main force preventing the pitching patterns becoming more extreme. However the stats are the stats, and in terms of performance and injury prevention these trends will continue.

Just like Moreno had 'value' after his thumb injury, which reduced his output from 'best prospect in baseball' to 'top 30'. One explanation for what we are seeing with Moreno is that he didn't recover until late 2023 and now moving ahead is the greatest catcher since Johny Bench (gold glove defense, best arm in baseball, batting title contender with power as his 35 games in 2021 indicated). So Tiedemann is the next David Price, except we don't see it right now because of his injuries so he is reduced from potential 'best pitching prospect in baseball' to 'a top 30 guy'. It might sound like I am being facetious, but a Tiedemann trade has the same potential to blow up just like the Moreno trade.

When Tatis was signed to that contract he was like a SS who could hit 45 homers and a 1.000 OPS. Now post steroid thing Tatis is like a Daulton Varsho if Daulton Varsho could hit .250. Really. Like everything about 2023 Tatis and Varsho is the same except Tatis hit .250 instead of .225. And Machado took a step back last year and was actually exactly the same as Chapman in terms of fWAR (but had better counting stats). So... which way did they hate the trade again? I seem to recall they thought San Diego would say NO. But maybe it's Toronto who would say no. Who knows what Machado and Tatis are going forward and they are owed like 3/4 of a billion.

I'm not sure what the interest is on 50 million dollar business loans right now. However long term Mortgage rates are 8% (it was 2% like 2 years ag0). Seems like a crazy time to take out a loan unless you were desperate.

I have heard a couple of people say that the Jays were confused because they had too many messages and information and you should just let them swing... maybe that was from Buck or an another old schooler though. I think there are 4 scenarios 1. Not enough information 2. Information wrong 3. Information right but not presented in digestible and actionable way. 4. Information right and presented right and acted upon right. Probably Jays were at some combo of 2 and 3, Need to get to 4, and avoid mistakenly going back to 1 like the old-schoolers want.

Remember Rocky? Like Rocky was trained low tech and the russians high tech and Rocky won. A lot of guys are sick of the analytics, and the advanced stuff, so they just want a guy to lift, eat right and drive in runs/throw strikes and have the 'playoff it factor'. That's what we want. Screw the advanced stuff, gotta go back to the common sense and forget about the nerd stuff.

Like the Varsho Trade the 20th percentile bad outcome of that would be like 3-2 WAR for Cinci, but like 18 - -2 in terms of TOronto Star and casual perception. Jake Fraley .220 .340 .460 2 WARs Spencer Horwitz .301 .350 .430 1.5 1b WARs Pearson - 1-0 3.22 1.5 WARs with lots of 102 mph 7th inning big moment pitches when Cinci wins the division series.

The crazy thing is Varsho and Moreno were even in fWAR + bWAR (Varsho 3.9 2.1 = 6.0, Moreno 4.3 1.7 = 6.0) According to the WARs they were the same. But the trade is the worst thing ever that happened and Atkins is needing to be severely given a D performance review. A lot of prejudices in this conversation, batting average included. Because Moreno hit .290 and Varsho .220 we assume Moreno is way better hitter, but Varsho has a much better secondary average. Because Moreno is not obese and is the most athletic guy many have ever seen we assume he is a great, great baserunner but he is terrible.

Control is in favor of Moreno, body type in favor of Moreno, upside in favor of Kirk. If Vlad Guerrero Jr has an '80' hit tool, Kirk is 70. This was partially under-appreciated because he missed his age 21 minor league season in which he would likely of put up dynamite numbers. Moreno is probably a 60 hit tool (slightly lesser k/bb ratio as compared to Kirk). What is crazy is how much Kirk and Vlad are under-performing their elite hit tools.

The anti-Kirk crew will look stupid if he manages to stay healthy... the guy has better skills and hand eye co-ordination than Moreno, and is only 24. Could pull off a run of great years, many better than 2022. Do players peak at 23? It's weird how people think Vlad can rebound, and even Manoah... but not Kirk. It's not just the obesity. There is some very weird prejudice against Kirk because he is so short and odd looking too.

Kirk is a better athlete than Moreno, better hand high coordination seen in his better k/bb and better blocking and framing. Probably also a better runner if both had a race at 200 pounds. Moreno at a sleek 190 pounds and Kirk at 290, obviously Moreno is much faster. Jays did choose the better athlete, with the thought probably that Kirk could get a bit fitter, lose 20 pounds, however he is losing the battle against Obesity and the Obesity is having more of an effect on his skills than they thought. I know I am going on and on about this but I think it is an extremely important point and the only hope for the near term future of the franchise. 1. Kirk is a slightly better athlete than Moreno. 2. No one can function optimally at 300 pounds, for gods sake if Moreno was 300 he'd hit .190 and probably play 25 games at the most. 3. OK. You gotta accept Kirk is actually an amazing athlete to do what he does at his weight. Now. Here is the hope. Jays hire a 50 person team, average salary (with benefits) 200k, 10 million budget... they are a combination of nutrionists, psycholagists, trainers, motivators, good cops, bad cops, expert in persuasion.. and they assign them all to get Kirk/Vlad/Manoah to come into camp fit. If they suceeded that would have to be worth more than 10 million in WAR.

Not being an insider I don't know for sure, but I feel like it's not just identifying the 'tells' but turning them into actionable strategies to improve results. Guys would have to be exposed to a lot of video, and some drills maybe to recognize the pitches in real time. Like even simple stuff like watching on a big screen over and over again. If there are some variation in innate ability to recognize the tells in real time, this itself may be a skill that will start being selected for. You wonder if the divergence of the Jays and Braves offense is partly because the Braves are ahead of the curve on this stuff. Related: On Gausman. I think it's not so much that he is tipping, but that he is mostly two pitches, so might be easier to identify and learn two tips, rather than have to worry about 4. Which is why I will always be a bit worried him in a big game which the opposition has had a chance and motivation to prep bigtime for.

One weird thing about Martin and Molina is they have ridiculous D-stats that catchers don't seem to get anymore... I'm assuming because at one time only Molina and Martin and a few others were good framers so the 'runs above average' was really high, but even if Kirk is a good framers, the others have caught up so he can't get 40 defense runs on fan graphs, even if he is a good framer.

Kirk compares super-favorably to Yadier Molina and Russel Martin, as does Moreno. Both Molina and Martin went up and down a bit. It's weird to me that everyone assume Kirk will keep on going down, and Moreno up, even though they are currently at the same point hitting wise, with Kirk having a better previous track record and k/bb. Why would Moreno have upside and not Kirk? Obesity I guess. People don't like the look of Kirk. If he looked different everyone would love him with the same stats. Not totally discounting that though. A lot of pudgy players have been successful for a long career... but flat out obese players? On the other hand if Kirk pulled a Prince Fielder and made it to early 30s before his neck unscrewed from his fat body that would give him 8 or 9 good years ahead.

Agreed, but it wasn't a disaster for 2023. Injuries for prospects really suck because it increases uncertainty and reduces sample size to determine what you have. Moreno and Tiederman injuries both cost Jays a chance at a true difference making trade for a super star. Imagine Moreno having a full season in 2021... would have been an unquestionable and deserving best prospect in baseball. Probably could have done Moreno for Jose Ramirez one for one if Moreno had a full 2021. Same with Tiederman. Because of their injuries both ended up being much less valuable trade chips.

The point is that as of now, as of today, Kirk is probably better than Moreno given minor league stats, 2022 stats, 2023 stats, fWAR, bWAR, etc. etc. etc. The way some posts read is that Moreno is a sure fire hall of famer with 70 grade defense and power who will win multiple batting titles. However the stats say even in 2023, Moreno and Kirk were about the same. Kirk's terrible season (2023) is like as good as Moreno's great season (2023). Kirk's all star season (2022) is better than any season Moreno has had. People are making a prediction based on their understanding of obesity. The prediction hasn't come true yet. Next year when Kirk shows up at 320, and Moreno is jacked, and on July 31 hitting .344 with 19 homers 8 fWAR (record for 1st half) and makes the all star game with a record 22 million votes, and Kirk is hitting .190 and has to be released... then the prediction will be true. As of now Kirk > Moreno despite weighing 80 pounds more. (to reiterate Kirk==Moreno in 2023, but career wise Kirk still better).

Yeah. Just seems like a lot of posters are portraying Moreno as a once in lifetime athlete with 70 catcher tools, and not mentioning Kirk has the same tools with a bit lesser arm tool but a better hit 'tool'. In terms of tools Kirk is a 70 tool guy trapped in a 290 pound body. Fat belly gets in the way of throws and swings increasing ground ball rate and reducing baserunners destroyed, still can put up 2 WAR in 100 games and be nominated for gold glove despite the fact he has the body of Danny Devito. I guess we can all hope the Jays high (ie low) performance team recognizes that fitness cost them 8 WAR or so between Kirk, Manoah and Guerrero. I guess some posters would prefer that obesity be only on losing teams like Oakland maybe... I guess maybe that is where baseball will have to go. Guerrero will hit .380 with 50 homers for Colorado, Kirk catch a few years for the As, and Manoah find his way to the white sox, and Jays can go ahead with non-obese era... however we will be lacking a catcher and watching Moreno win batting titles and be the next pudge rodriquez.

Moreno is on a playoff burner, but so was Pat Borders at one time. If Kirk was 45 pounds lighter and looked like Moreno this wouldn't even be a conversation. Kirk just got nominated for a gold glove, and I saw one of the defensive rating systems had him as the top catcher and top 5 AL defensive player overall. Not saying defense nerd ratings are everything (especially as they disagree, though all rate Kirk good), but Kirk and Moreno were the same guy in 2023, Kirk was much better in 2022... I guess people think 2 guys, who are the same, but one extremely obese, that one will become a first ballot hall of famer, and the other a 450 pound novelty in the Mexican league. Kirk actually has better tools too (k-rate indicates better hit tool). Whole conversation is based on obesity, and nothing else, but the Kirk haters could be right in the end because Obesity can cause failure. My cousin was a pretty good Marathon runner, 3 hours 25 minutes, which is an relatively good time for a 30 year old female, but then she got extremely obese and could not walk a half marathon in that time. So I've seen first hand what Obesity can do.

You are using the term complex thinking wrong. Playoff are not more complex than regular season. A system's complexity is reflected by the number of variables in the system, and in fact the number of variables in the 'playoffs' is less than regular season (less players are used for one). What could make the playoffs different are non-linearities, which I think is what you are trying to argue. A non-linearity would be be if Bryce Harpers OPS goes from .900 to .800 in the playoffs, but Cavan Biggios goes from .700 to .400. Most of us kind of think there are not extreme non-linearities in the playoffs, at least not to the extent you are arguing. Those of us who have been around a long time remember Ed Sprague hitting a big homerun and Pat Borders winning the World Series MVP. If there is some linearity in the playoffs why did it not affect Borders? Maybe this non-linearity is new and wasn't there in 1992. I don't know.

He had some injury in 2019, I can't remember if it was a hand injury. I know everybody is complaining about the Moreno thing, but there were months long stretches after his hand injury where it looked like he had no pop at all. Seems to have recovered. At the same time Kirk has as more talent than Moreno. Moreno could not perform like this with 2 20 pound hams tied to his waste. Kirk can. Problem is if Kirk gets any bigger it's worse than a hand injury, that belly has to get in the way of the power stroke. If Kirk can lose even 20 pounds he is better than Moreno. So this whole discussion is a weight loss discussion. Can these new drugs help? Or do they have side effects like mess with your metabolism and brain so are too risky.,

Another decent but not historic minor league hitter, who was decent but not amazing at 22 then has continued to improve every year peaking at a consistent MVP level. Probably had his best season at age 33. Vlad has more talent than FF. Hopefully he gets it together. One weird thing about Vlad is that he doesn't hit a lot of doubles. I remember Delgado peaked at like 57 doubles 41 homers, and having many seasons close to 40 double/40 homers. That's the type of hitter I thought Vlad would be. .300 year in, year out, 80 extra base hits. Line drives all over the place.

The LTBF thing is getting really annoying. He is constantly making false equivalence between Vlad's under-performance and other players. Mookie Betts was not the minor league hitter that Vlad was. He was good, but not 80 hit tool, .400 as a 19 year old in AA good. Mookie also was like a .290 hitter with 18 homers at age 22. Vlad was a 48 homer .310 guy at 22. What Mookie has done since age 22 is amazing. Improved himself in every way. What Vlad has done since age 22 is one of the great disappointments in baseball history. They are not equivalent in any way.

In the 2020s, what was suppose to be the Jays great cycle with the legendary 80 hit tool Vladimir Guerrero Jr. leading the way, the Blue Jays are last in ALDS appearances in their division with a grand total of 0. Everyone else has one. Fire Shapiro. Hopefully he is presented this stat tomorrow and resigns. Keep Atkins and Schneider. They are save-able with the right guidance.

Playoff individual game wins in the 2020s (just from my bad memory, close for sure, but correct me if I am wrong anywhere) Tampa Bay - 11 Yankees - 7? Red Sux - 6 I thinks Orioles - 0 Blue Jays - 0 Advancements to ALDS via wild card bypass or wild card win Yankees 2 Tampa Bay 2 Sox 1 Orioles 1 Blue Jays 0

lol. Just checked the box score. They got 5 walks so maybe they are taking some breaking pitches against this guy... haven't watched the whole game, but doesn't like they are hammering the fastball like they know it's coming.