Olerud363

If anybody is watching the Twins game what do you think? Did you see the last 2 at bats where Kepler took strike 3, and Lewis missed a high fastball swung at strike 3 on a pitch like 2 feet outside. I could be getting fooled but still as convinced as ever that the Twins had something on Gausman. Lewis looked like a completely different hitter against Javier. Took so many that were way closer from Gausman, and then killed the fastballs as soon as he got them.

The 2020 playoffs were pretty tough. Dodgers had to get through 4 rounds and it's not like they snuck in and barely made the playoffs. And actually 2020 was the one year that the two best teams that year, who have also been the two best teams long term from 2018 to now met in the World Series. However that being said, what I've come to think about that season and a lot of 2021 is that teams could not get the usual amount of advanced scouting and game planning done as other years. Maybe the 'good' organizations found a way to get it done anyway so teams like LA and Tampa Bay had an advantage that year. To me this may explain why the Jays and Vlad hit so well in 2021, they weren't being scouted and game planned for as much until later in 2021.

He is saying there isn't a predictable and actionable non-linearity in the translations from regular season to playoffs. Meaning there isn't a type of player who will do better in the post season as compared to their regular season stats. Last night it was Austin Riley and Travis D'Arnaud that hit the homers? Do they have a better chance to do that then Chapman and Biggio would? Is there any reason to expect Riley has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Matt Chapman? Yes. Something is probably different between them this year, but that is cooked into the regular season stats. Is there any reason to expect D'Arnaud has a better chance of hitting playoff pitching as compared to Biggio? He has a slightly higher iso, so a very slightly higher chance of hitting a homerun, but not huge. Biggio could also do this with about the same probability D'Arnaud can. There is nothing special to do in terms of creating a good playoff team beyond creating a good regular season team.

Note I didn't say I 100% believe the narrative that Gausman is easy to plan for... just that a lot of other do, and I'm open to it. Would be interesting to see a statistical analysis as to whether he has a wider deviation of outcomes as compared to a control group.

Not sure that exactly makes sense? Biggio's win's don't manifest themselves? Well in a short playoff series, everyone will contribute on average 2 or 3% of their regular season wins. 5 win player will contribute .2 wins or something on average, in a 3 game series, Winning team will have 2 wins, so the 20 players who appear contribute (in an abstract sense) .1 win, however the true distribution will have much more variation without the smoothing of 160 games. So will Biggio contribute less than his expectation given regular season WAR? I don't think so. Problem was Biggio was the Jays 5th hitter with a lower chance of contributing 'wins' than say Royce Lewis or Carlos Correa. Twins were a weird team with a lot of partial seasons so better than their run differential (which was still not bad). I'm fine with Biggio playing playoff games next year if he is the 9th hitter. A .240 .330 .390 9th hitter? That's fine. Biggio can't be the 5th hitter, and the 3rd hitter can't be a 1 WAR player. Need some 3 to 5 WAR guys in the lineup (as others are saying). Phillies? Gausman = Wheeler... except Gaussman f***s up the important games because as a 2 pitch pitcher simple to game plan for? Is that true? It seems that way from watching on TV, but who knows, Jays need to figure that out too.

I wouldn't call it a hate thread. it is a place to discuss Vlad Guerrero Jrs dissapointments with nuance, tact and class. Some points to hit on.... 1. Will Vlad Guerrero Jr. continue to track Gary Shefield? So far he has nicely with one big season surrounded by mediocre ones. At the age of 25 or so Shefield really put it together. Stopped chasing all together and put up like 12 years straight of .300 .400 .550 or so hitting. 2. Will Vlad Guerrero Jrs obesity prevent him from putting it together like Gary Shefield did? 3. If 2. happens (Obesity induced early career release) where should he go? Korea? Mexican League? Oakland? Or the Independant Leagues (Windy City, Quebec City, Lake Erie are all options). But yeah, not exactly the place for weird slams on long time posters. Vlad Guerrero Jr. career trajectory discussions only here.

Kirk and Varsho's 99% percentiles are also super high. Kirk has better tools than Moreno. Tie a few 20 pound Christmas hams around Moreno's waist and see how he does... Kirk's 99% outcome is he loses weight, takes a step forward with the bat, has a decade of great years at catcher and finishes off as a great DH for a hall of fame career. If Varsho could hit .265 with 35 homers (which his 2022 and minor league stats suggest he could) he is a 7 WAR player. Kirk probably will never lose the weight though I guess, but even morbidly obese could have a nice 5 years ahead. Who knows.

I disagree on this one. I think farms are really had to evaluate right now because of the weirdness with minor league offence. Farm has a bunch of MLB ready players and looks like it can easily provide something similar to the 2015 infusion, which gave the team two regulars in Pillar and Goins/Travis, and a a closer and setup man (Osuna and Sanchez). Things is it is hard to predict exactly how it will work out. In 2015 Pompey, Travis, Goins, Pillar, Castro, Osuna, Sanchez, Norris were all given spots opening day and by the end they didn't all work out but some did. 2024 will be similar. A tonne of MLB ready talent, none really top 10 prospects or anything but there are like 10 guys you could see talking an opening day roster spot.

This is ridiculous. Multiple advanced analytics systems have Kirk and Moreno essentially even this year, when Kirk had a horrible year by his own standards. Kirk has a weight problem, I don't know if he wants to fix it, if it will be fixed, or what effect it will have on his next 3 years. I have no problem if Posters think Kirk will never be able to control his weight and/or the weight will effect his hitting long term. But to call him a disaster isn't true as of right now.

'is in' jeopardy? Probably not. 'Should be' in jeopardy. I think so. Since 1993 the Jays have just been on repeat. Which teams have failed to win 95 games since 1993? Toronto, Miami Marlins... any others? Toronto has won 1 division title since 1993, and had to have one of the most massive trade deadlines in baseball history to even get that. Otherwise the good years have been high 80s/low 90s in wins, with the additional playoff spots making things 'seem' better than the late 90s Gord Ash era, or the 2006-2010 era, but in reality not too much different. Now the organization has massive issues, 2 years in a row ending on a controversial playoff loss, multiple players with nutrition issues, media turning against team even the loyal ones. That being said I have no confidence Ed Rogers or whoever would be able to hire a better president. What they need is a like-able guy, well educated, on top of latest trends in analytics, great communicator... like Ed Rogers could make that hire.

It's amazing how it's divided into 2 camps. 1. Fire Atkins and Shapiro and get better analytics and catch up to other teams with the swing mechanics, hitting strategy, nutrition and psychology. We are behind in the advanced stuff, too little is the problem not too much. 2. Fire Atkins and Shaprio, burn all the tablets and computers, hire Buck Martinez as GM, institute minimum pitch count of 120 and find some RBI guys like Joe Carter.

Kirk, Moreno, and Varsho were all between 1.5 and 2 fWAR I believe. If you average out all the different version of WAR, and consider past performance and minor league performance. 1. Kirk is slightly better than Moreno (he has been better every other year, and was only slightly worse this year) 2. Varsho = Moreno again consider past performance not just this year. So it comes down to 1. some people on the board not believing an Obese 300 pound 5 foot 4 guy can beat a real sharp looking athlete long term... 2. a 26 year old guy hitting .220 with supposed major holes in his swing will never recover to even hit .240 May also come down to Moreno display some impressive raw power... however I believe in 2021 and 2022 Kirk would also hit 420 foot 106 mph per hour shots... don't remember him doing it much this year, still Kirk out-homered Moreno 8-7.

I guess National Post if you hate Justin Trudeau, Globe and Mail or Toronto Star if you love Trudeau, and want help him make the world a more accepting and just place? I actually don't know as I haven't lived near Toronto in quite a while, but when I used to live in Waterloo region and went to the Burger King a lot the Burger King always had complimentary copies of the Sun so I could read up on what was going on. Shame if those days are gone.

Shapiro speach "I am Shapiro your ruler. Atkins is my buddy and he is back. Whoever he hired is back to. I heard some of you pieces of s*** have blamed the coaches and managers and what not for this situation. The pitching plan was analyzed carefully and we thought we'd give up 5 runs in the series. Our simulations were right. SO STOP YOUR f***ING COMPLAINING. You f***ing shits didn't hit and that's on you. Not on these coaches. THEY ARE ALL BACK AND GETTING RAISES. Even Dave Hudgens. " Varsho (thinking to himself): Where is the nearest driveline workout gym....

Atkins is back then, lol. Obviously Schneider is back as there is no way they fire him for doing what they said. The best we can hope for is all the hitting related coaches getting fired and like Rivera's retirement that should be announced very soon. The fact that they aren't already fired is a bit worrying. Maybe they like the exit velolcities, the hard contact, and the simulated numbers where Vlad hit's .285 .377 .521 if all his flyballs don't go to center.

Probably actually. Any sport I've ever been involved with the coach's have a god complex and some portion of athletes view coach's as the cause and solution to all their problems. A couple of recent examples. Hobbiest 5k running - This is a bat-s*** crazy scene with an ever growing collection of paid coaches to help you run the local turkey trot in under 20 minutes. If a guy gets 20 minutes 25 seconds blame the coach and onto the next one making promises of the elusive PB and age group medal. You go guy. 10 year old girls softball - our good friends have kids in this stuff, and we go to games and hang around the scene. There is surprisingly a lot of paid individual coach's on top of the team coach's and a lot of controversy's. Anyway the coach is responsible if your kid only has a .500 on base percentage (they got on base a lot, .500 isn't good) and you go to the local version of driveline for some lessons, or if you have your cash get your kid a paid softball hitting coach to help reverse the terrible batting tips the team coach gave. So most of you guys have played way more baseball than I have, so you know there is a massive coaching industry that will solve all your problems and if you are an 18 year old with 85 mph max exit velocity they will fix it and get you going on the path to stardom. I remember years ago reading the forward by John Olerud to Tom Robon's hititng book, it was the polite version of "that mother f***er Cito Gaston f***ed me over but Tom Robson got me back to hitting .350 with the right batting tips". To hear Cito Gaston tell the story he was only trying to help Olerud win the triple crown but Olie wouldn't listen and it wasn't until he found Jose Bautista did anyone listen to his hitting tips, but he transformed Bautista from an 11 homer hitter to 54. So I think these guys figure the right coach's can help them. I think with Varsho particular they probably see a talented guy who needs the right advice to unlock his .254 average and 32 homer potential (which would make him a great, great player with his defense).

Ed Rogers doesn't know who Atkins is. The only one he can fire is Shapiro. You guys are all corporate pansies. Fire Shapiro or keep them all. Better yet fire Shapiro and keep them all. They are all betas anyway, so new guy can mold them to the right formation.

I'm fine with just having him here the next two years and finishing this window. Now if you could get value then I'd consider a trade. Here is how I have to come to look at it. Let's say we rate him in terms of his ranking at each age within all full time players in the history of baseball. Like by percent of all players. Note not just percent of players in the Majors, but like all players as to where they were that year. So if at 20 he is like 50th percentile in Terms of 20 year olds in the majors because half the guys in the majors at 20 (Griffey, A-Rod, Harper) beat him, he might still be 99th percentile because only 1/100 play in the majors in 20. 18 - 99th percentile ? How many 18 year olds hit like he did over a full season minors 19 - 99.9th percentile ? Hit .400 for 2 months at double a and was an extreme beast at 19 20 - 99th percentile ? I think it is super Rare to have a 20 year play the full year in the major and be above average 21 - 95th percentile ? Rare for a 21 year old to play full time in majors but less rare than for a 20 year old 22 - 99.9th percentile ? Like he was setting hitting records for a 22 year old 23- 80th percentile ? Good season for a 23 year old but nothing spectacular. 24- 50th percentile ? He is an average guy now, at an age where it isn't special to be in the majors. I don't know if those percentiles are exactly right, but how on earth do you even value a guy who has shown 99.9th percentile talent seasons but drifted to average?

Another example is Robbie Ray in 2021 cruising after 5, leading 2-1, ready to win the Cy Young, about to bring Joy to a city, a fanbase, and then Aaron Judge and the Yankees absolutely hammer him with 3 bombs and 4 runs so bad, so sad. Playoff chances swing by like 30 or 40% that inning.

Not exactly the same and weird in a different way. There were 2 outs in the 5th Jays leading 7-1, Dickey had just retired a batter to get 2 out with a runner on first. Point was much that no one even remember that too much (though at the time it certainly was a point of discussion) and how different yesterday's decision would seem if Jays scored 7 runs.

I'm actually totally confused as to what is behind their Espinal instead of Schneider decision. It makes we wonder what analytical system is flagging Espinal as a better bet to get on base or have an extra base hit than Schneider? So maybe it isn't analytics in this case, just old school coaches thinking the kid who strikes out a ton has a hole in his swing. Got to think analytics goes to the guy who walks and hits homers. So do the coach's override the analytics in the Schneider vs Espinal case but not Berrios out after 3?

If you are going down this road allocate all moneez available to Ohtani, and make Ohtani, Pearson, Tiederman, Kikuchi, Manoah, Mitch White all piggy back guys. Make Gausman a 5 or 6 inning guy still for 20 appearances, piggy back for 10, and 10 relief so they don't know when the hell he's going to appear and can't gameplan him.

Is there more variation in the first inning a pitcher appears as compared to other innings? Is there more correlation between same game innings then between different game innings? Can you use stuff metrics to predict pitchers next inning? I assume teams are trying this. If in 1000 games you pull Berrios after 3 scoreless what if team has .530 winning percentage when he's pulled, but .520 when not. How would we know if it was the right move that just went wrong. Some of this goes back to doing it all the time, if you are going to do it in the most critical game. With the former at least you have a sample size of success to draw on, players, fans, media are used to it, and you say this is the way we do things in North Dakota.

Did they even use an opener once this year? Or a planned piggy back? If they are considering using these strategies should be using them in the regular season make sure they know how the players will react. I would actually be interested to see them go with this kind of thing regular for an entire year and see how it works in the long term, in terms of results, player buy-in etc. I'd piggy back Kikuchi/Pearson/Tiemerman/White/Manoah at times, use openers, hell as crazy as it seems I'd piggy back Gausman or open for him. Start Kikuchi 25 games, relieve 15 so he has experience with coming in as a reliever with a guy on base. Piggy back Tiederman, White, Ryu, Manoah, Pearson to get them started and control their innings. Just make it a regular part of the strategy if it is to be used in playoff games.

Did Bo go through his stop sign Tuesday? Never did see a clear replay on that one.