Olerud363

Baltimore is already ahead of where the Astros were. Samuel Basallo is basically Yordan Alvarez and no one is talking about him. It's over. The Toronto Blue Jays as a functional franchise has ended. The Orioles are now a better version of the Astros owned by a billionaire. 100 win seasons for the next 20 years. I'm being a bit dramatic. No I am not. The greatest prospect in Blue Jays history was Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who was talked about as a legend from day 1. As an 18 year old Samuel Basallo was ahead of Guerrero and Juan Soto at 18. And no one is talking about him because he is like the 5th best prospect they've developed in the last 2 years. Congratulations to the Baltimore Orioles for creating the greatest franchise ever. Congratulations to David Rubstein for buying the best group of talent ever. The Toronto Blue will win 78 games with 90 win talent because of the division.

He could still be fat but be in better shape. If the problem is recovering in 20 seconds after a 2 second max effort needs some training program to address that. Addressing that may also address his obesity, but it doesn't have to. It's not like he is going to be doing a 10 mile runs every day to address his pitch clock issue. More like some sort of 30 second to 2 minute interval training regiment that may not burn a huge amount of calories.

John Olerud has more fWAR then either Helton or Mauer, and his wRC+ is almost as good as Helton's (130 vs 132). John Olerud playing 155 games a year and not platooned. He missed an average of 200 PAs in 90, 91, 92, 94, 95 and 96. Mostly because of Cito, a little because of a strike. a) His extra at bats would be against lefties, so not quite as much power but conservative estimate is he get's 5 more fWAR and a bunch of his '15 hr 60 rbi' seasons become more like 20 hr 80 rbi seasons. So he is a 60 fWAR guy, and his baseball card looks 'more complete. If you assume that being platooned had some non-linear effects a) not being exposed to lefties early in career, so did not learn to hit them, and psychological effects, then who knows what we lost. He repeated 93 in 98. There is massive evidence that his ceiling was one of the great pure hitters of all time. He only hit the ceiling twice, but brought up in a more supportive environment? What if John Olerud and Helton switched parks and managers? Olerud and Mauer pretty similar as hitters. Another interesting question what if Mauer played 155 games a year as a 1b men right from age 21? Probably lasts longer and hits better into his 30s. So probably a hall-of-famer still and maybe one guy that would have been more valuable as a 1b (his catcher d-numbers aren't mind blowing or anything).

Varsho isn't quite as good a minor league hitter as Gordon was... but Varsho is still a .300 minor league hitter... Unusual for a .300 hitter in the minors to hit .220 in the majors, and Alex Gordon shows there is precedent for guys getting it together at 27. All Varsho really has to do is hit .265 with a few more walks to be 2014 Alex Gordon.

Varsho .273 38 homers 65 walks mind blowing defense and base-running = 8.4 WAR like Alex Gordon in prime except even better defense and base-running Manoah = 15-7 3.38 ERA 190 innings pitched = 3.4 WAR (2022 performance level without as much luck). OR Varsho .215 19 homers 39 walks decent defense and base-running = 1.9 WAR Manoah (somehow) 1-5 8.72 ERA, only 48 innings pitches (released) but somehow -3.1 WAR for world record lowest WAR per inning ever.

December 2034 - Blue Jays Message Message Board transcript NewFan2011 - It's official boys. We got Yakito Mashiruba. This guy is literally the greatest prospect since Ken Griffey Jr. Lightning power, triple crown in Japan, elite pitch recognition and bat to ball, 50 sb base potential and fangraphs is projecting his center field defense to be to be Kevin Keirmair like (too young to really remember KK but you oldtimers probably do). The entire package could set WAR records, even beating Barry Bonds elite seasons, and Ohtani's combined pitching and hitting WARs. Unbelievable! We the Toronto Blue Jays have the best player in the world!!!! Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukah, love to all, the world is beautiful!!!!!!!! OldOlerud363 - f*** YUOU. GO TO HELL YOU LITTLE s***. IT'S HAPPENING AGAAIAIN!!!! f***-oFF. pant pant... WE GOT NO-ONE. THE WORLD SUCKS. NewFan2011 - Holy s***. What the hell is wrong with this old bastard. It's official. It's being reported everywhere. It's a done deal. This is the greatest day of any blue jays fans life. Mods - Sorry NewFan2011 for the toxic posts you are being exposed to. In most cases we'd issue bans, but in this case you deserve the abuse you are getting. We've all been through stuff, and I guess this will be a lesson for you.

100% right. It was Yu Darvish I think you were thinking of from December 2011, and it was almost 100% the same f***ing thing with Morosi I think was it playing the part of Kevin Gray. It was literally the same week 12 years later. Same season, same vibes, same f***ing everything. Second weekend of December, checking phones while christmas shopping, holiday's coming, excited happy, can't believe it happened again... same exact emotions. Same weather. Same moment where I was 100% sure we got him. Then the crash. Same f***ing everything like the world just repeats. Maybe it is a simulation.

They actually aren't dodging anything. My understanding is that they have to put the present day value of the money into a safe investment to guarantee it will be there in the future. And the luxury tax hit is the present day value. I also assume this changes every year depending on interest rates. So basically take Ohtani. He is owed 70 million in 2034 so they need to put 48 million in a 10 year U.S. treasury or something safe. They get the 70 million out in 10 years and pay him, but the current tax hit is 48, and they actually have to spend 48 on the investment this year. It's a bit confusing as to why they are even bothering with this. Just pay him 48 million and let Ohtani put it in 10 year treasuries if he wants. It might be a tax advantage to the player. Interesting thing is if interest rates go down Dodgers have to put in more. So if interest rates 2% next year, they'll have to put in 60 million or something and I assume that will be their luxury tax hit. Can anyone confirm this? Do they re-do the present day value of the deferred money each year? If not then their are some scenarios where this could be unfair depending what happens with interest rates.

Vlad's stats in the minors as a teenager and playing in minor league ball parks in the majors are mind-blowing. This is not explained by park factors or dimensions or anything. Minor league parks are not smaller than major league parks. Could be some mental thing when he gets in the stadiums with an upper deck and 30,000+ fans. Anyway Hurl brings up a great point. Whatever is going on with VGJ may be mostly mental and some issue with anxiety, living up to the family name... I don't know exactly. One outcome a lot of people are pretty much resigned to is Vlad winning the triple crown with the Red Sox or Braves or somebody in 2026.

Not sure what is up. Not that I'm complaining as I appreciate that people are maintaining for free so can't complain to unpaid interns. However it seemed to me there was massive action on the board Sept/Oct of last year and it held up fine. The Texas sweep, the stress the last week as the playoff clinch took 5 days longer than it should have, the Berrios pulled after 3 innings and related follow up... no problems I recall then.

I'm like the extreme Orioles bull (greatest franchise ever about to go on a run of 20 consecutive 110 win seasons with the greatest prospects ever and several first ballot hall of famers) but ironically I don't see the differences in the farm systems to be that extreme, not because I'm not an Orioles believer (Mike Elias is not only the greatest GM ever but one of the greatest human beings ever) but because I'm not down on the Jays farm system at all. I think people are having trouble evaluating it because the players are a bit old, don't have big time power and are heavy on the walks, a skill people think doesn't translate to the majors. So let's deal with each of those points. 1. Plenty of old prospects work out fine. Jays 2015 team had huge contributions from guys who were old prospects. Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson were old prospects at 25 that developed into super-stars in their late 20s. Kevin Pillar, Ryan Goins, Devon Travis were old prospects that didn't work out long term but contributed nicely in 2015 and 16. 2. Players don't have big time power - some do (Orelvis, Schneider) and the guys that don't (maybe yet) like Roden and Howritz have great k-bb ratios. I bet that's important. Take a guy like Miguel Hiraldo. His ISO is barely higher than Roden's but his k-bb is like 25-110, while Roden's was 68-64. Guys like Hiraldo have no room to sell out for power, but if it isn't working for Roden there is room to change the approach and be more aggressive. So I think lack of power isn't a huge deal for guys with a Roden/Horwitz profile. More room to change approach. 3. Some people think walks don't translate to the majors because pitchers will have more control and challenge guys - true to a point, but more relevant when talking about a 24 year old college guy in short season A-ball, not the 24 year old leading the international league in on base percentage.

Totally agree with you. Really surprised teams have not tried to figure out a 100 inning schedule for Pearson/Tiedemann types. 50 games maybe 1/2 of them starts 2 innings each, no back to backs. It's weird that non-ace starters wouldn't like this too. These days starters are getting pulled before 5 innings so not eligible for a win. What's not to like if say a Manoah, performing at a level halfway between 2022 and 23, could cherry pick wins by coming in for 4 innings after Pearson/Tiedemann.

Probably a valid comparison, but Kemp was serviceable from age 26-29. If Lantiqua can do the same thing as a backup/injury replacement 9th best player it's fine

The Raptors won a ring though and have a long run of making the playoffs most years. Too bad it's not working out this year. Losing VanVleet for nothing was I guess a big thing. Relevant because could see the same thing happening with Bo and/or Vlad. Like they play out their contracts and the year after it 'seems' like they can be replaced cheaply, but things just don't work out. So basically Jays could be headed to same place as Raptors in 2026 but will they have a ring? (Or even a playoff win).

I hope not. Pulling Berrios should maybe not be a collaborative decision, given the real time feedback is important there... Allocating playing time for young guys should be collaborative, given the real time feed back (Schneider looks horrible against Garret Cole for 2 at bats.... OH NO!) isn't as important. If true Fire Scheider tonight please. I do not need any more of managers playing 34 year old mediocres ahead of younger players with potential.

They aren't going to do it, but if Oakland or Tampa Bay had this exact collection of talent they'd make a super-team (at least to the Billy Beane from 10 years ago would). They'd trade everybody and their mother, Gaussman, Vlad, Bo, Berrios, Romano, Springer, Kuch, and the rest for 3 prospects each, use 2024 and 2025 to sort throught the current group of prospects, get a couple of high drafts positions, and be ready for a super-team in 2026. Too bad the rich casuals would complain as they are living it up in what used to be Home Plate Lady's seats... I think a lot of people on this board would have fun watchiing Scheider and Barger get 650 PAs and have a bunch of real good prospects brewing.

I think they have some guidelines in place in the analytics department to allocate playing time based on match-ups and projections. When Schneider was called up he was massively hot but still didn't play everyday. I remember him getting benched when he was still hot. I think the plan was for him to only play in the best matchups for him, then he got hot and they changed it to having him play 80% of the time for a while. Then he got ice cold and it gave them a chance to go back to the original plan, and it just happened that no good matchups for him occurred the last week. The Jays are going to have an interesting problem allocating the playing time on Biggio/Espinal/Schneider/Barger/Martinez/Jiminez especially if another guy is added to the mix. Gotta give the two destined to break-out enough playing time to show that they are the real man, don't want to pull the plug to early on the next Dan Uggla (whichever one that is).

If you didn't follow the 1989-1993 Jays I have another question. Who do you think made more of an impact to the 2009-2010 Jays. Kevin Millar or Dewayne Wise? Both brought a lot of intangibles and I don't think it was coincidence that Jose Bautista broke out playing along side them. I wonder who would be the player that could have the same effect on Daulton Varsho?

Were you alive in the late 80s early 90s? Who do you think made more of an impact to the 1989-1992 Jays? Tom Lawless or Pat Tabler. I really liked what both brought to the table and have been going back and forth about the issue for over 30 years. Really curious what someone like you, who appreciates the under-rated players thinks?

lol. When I was a younger kid I didn't watch every game just the big ones. So the first few games I ever watched were like the 1985 ALCS and the 1987 last weekend. Crazy that I still became a lifelong fan after that first impression. 1987 Blue Jays could have used some analytics (as could the mid 90s teams). Like I said I didn't watch every game but looks like they played Garth Iorg and Willie Upshaw way to much. That was kind of a big mistake as it led to Cecil Fielder being let go. In an alternative universe Jays play Fielder and McGriff 150 games starting in 1987. They win in 87 and 90 because of the extra offense Fielder provides. Of course you can't really do that, because in that case Alomar, Olerud, Molitor probably don't become a thing.

The 1987 Tigers won 98 games. They were first in wRC+. They drew a lot of walks. They likely used early forms of Analytics including reading the 1987 Bill James Baseball Abstract. They scored 50 more runs than the Blue Jays. They won the division. The Blue Jays did not.

meanWAR(Orelvis, Barger, Howritz, Scheider, Roden, Palmegiani, Jiminez) doesn't matter What matters is TwolargestWAR(Orelvis, Barger, Howritz, Scheider, Roden, Palmegiani, Jiminez)

Orelvis might not take as much of a hit off his minor league numbers as others. He's a .240 minor league hitter who has put some stinkers like barely hitting .200 for a few months. So at first you would think he would get destroyed in the majors. However his problem is pop-ups. Like his k-rate isn't that bad. Joey Gallo for example had a way worse k-rate. Some guys hit just as well in the majors as minors and Orelvis might be that guy. 1. Vlad Guerrero 110 mph ground balls eat up minor league infields but he loses a lot of batting average when going to the majors because major league defenses handle his grounders better. 2. Orelvis Martinez popups aren't going to be hits in the minors or majors so he may not have as much a discount when reaching the majors because of defense. 3. His k-rate isn't that bad. Like way better than Joey Gallo's was in the minors. 4. His minor league numbers might be just randomly fluky on the low side. Orelvis may be a .240 .320 .500 minor league and major league hitter and maybe he is ready.

Why? These projections basically just memorize the entire history of baseball and based on what happened to all the other similar players, tells you what will happen to player x. Take a guys career averages. Add a bit if he's below 27, take away a bit if he's above 27. Add a bit if he is under-performing his minor league average by more than 100 OPS points... add a tiny bit if last year was awesome, take away a tiny bit if last year sucked... boom there is your projection Do any of the Braves projections not make sense in that system? Like Acuna is projected pretty good.. but it's his career average, with a bit of a bump for good last year, being under 27. Olson, career average + a bit of a bump for a good 2023. Not sure what kind of AI or whatever they use these days. But the simplest way to do it is just multi-variate regression, and it would just predict career average, + figure out how to wait the other predictors like last year, and age.

I don't have any numbers. The only thing I have heard about both Roden and Howritz is that they aren't good enough to play up on the defensive spectrum (Roden can't play center, Horwitz can't play left or second)... at least not very well.