Olerud363

It's also just like the NBA shot selection. Evolution. I repeat this all the time, but 1985 cardinals, 1988 red sox, even1993 Blue Jays all amazing contact and batting average teams But your random 220 homer team of sub-par mediocres can keep pace with them now (like 2023 cubs or something). And your good team knocking 250 homers, but not historical keeps pace with the 1993 Jays. So let's say they all decided to hit Don Mattingly style, and since they have lesser talent they are .280 with 13 homers (old Mattingly like). And the team hit's .280 with 120 homers... it gets you no where. So is it that they can't do it? Or the math doesn't make sense to do it.

Who would rather have as a voice in the hitters heads Don Mattingly or prime Cito Gaston? Cito hitting advice - pull dat ball Mattingly hitting advice - Use your 99.999th percentile hand eye coordination to strike out 25 times in 600 at bats

Seems to they are always behind in the data analysis and adjustment war. Would love to see some research on whether some magical 'hitting tips' really exist. What I mean is, take Gio Urshella. He goes to the Yankees and all of a sudden is great. Did he get magic 2019 Yankee hitting tips? By 2023 the Yankees didn't really have any magic anymore. Did other teams catch up? In the 1980s Bill James, an early adapter to computer PC technology, started simulating thousands of baseball seasons with like MS-Dos basic or something, and found out that given enough time players like Wade Boggs would hit .400, but also some years hit .250, and this wasn't far off from the real Boggs (after a string of batting titles randomly hit .250 for one year for no apparent reason). So everything we see (good Vlad, bad Vlad) could be explained by just random chance if over the entirety of baseball, good and bad seasons occur with the expectations they would in a simulation. If good and bad seasons occur more often then expected then I guess there is something else explaining it. Which would be either injuries or 'hitting tips'. You get the right 'hitting tips' and it changes your life. In the pregame they were talking about this with Justin Turner. He was like a 2 homer guy, Marlyn Bird gave him some hitting tips, then Turner started hitting 2 homers a series with the awesome Marlyn Bird hitting tip.

It's pretty amazing. The backbone of the 2015 Jays were unheralded guys given a chance. As much as we didn't like AA sometimes, looking back he was great at giving guys chances. Starting with Bautista, then EE, Pompey, Goins, Pillar, Travis, Osuna, Norris, Miguel Castro. Not that they all worked out, but he was great at giving guys, who hadn't yet established themselves a job and sorting through them. Josh Donaldson was also in that class but developed by the As. Like at 25 looked just like 5 current Jays prospects as they approach 25.

2021 team was a mirage caused by little advanced scouting and data crunching during Covid. Ran up some run differential early because of this, Vladdy looked good (he was facing New Hampshire level advanced scouting and data crunching). 2021 Jays had a playoff spot 1.5 games ahead of Yankees with 2 weeks to go, they sent some advance scouts and then the Rays/Yankees and even Twins dealt with that team with ease.

Sorry for bumping this. You guys will hate me, but the first pitch ground ball out just drove me over the edge... I know not unusual but I got sucked in again by a couple patient at bats in the first series. Juan Soto is in NY and I live in NY State and just seeing the good vibes and joy he is bringing my Yankee Fan friends is bitter sweet. Always thought Vlad would be right there with him, a Frank Thomas to Jim Thome... but it is time to accept the truth. 2024 projected stats Juan Soto - .377 .524 .712 12 fWAR Joy and happiness for the Yankee girls and boys VGJ - .277 .330 .429 0.5 fWAR nothing but sadness here for the Blue Jays faithful

If he gets 0.5 WAR, full time, with still 25 homers and 100 rbis he probably gets 25 million next year and has to be released If he gets 3 WAR, then he might get 30 million next year depending on the traditional stats. The funny thing is if he somehow got 6 WAR this year, he probably get's 34 million or something, if get's 10 war maybe 37 million because it is still so highly based on precedent and traditional stats. Like he won an arb case with 1 WAR, 25 homers and 95 rbis already... so could easily win another and be up near 30 million with low WAR. However in free agency WAR counts, so if he is still low WAR high rbi he will get more in arb than in free agency.

Average fan, especially myself has the political skill and perhaps emotional intelligence far below tampon. Poor losers and childish stupid rants that accomplish nothing while the elite posters post calmly and make millions on their day trades. However, while the rants useless and childish I think they often do correlate with big swings in playoff probabilities and such. Like team has 70% chance of making playoffs, but have nightmare week and playoff chances reduced to 45% or something and fans go nuts. Probably not yet, but by like April 20th, chances of winning division could be dramatically reduced. Like from 20% or whatever it was at beginning to 5%. I think the last 2 years, because of average Jays starts, and historic NY Yankee/TBR starts, Jays like lost the chance of winning the division real quick... so that's probably what fans are sensing is happening again and ranting at.

Juan Soto in 5 games has almost as much fWAR as Vlad Guerrero Jr. did in 155 games last year. The hilarious thing is because of the broken arb system Vlad Guerrero Jr. (0.5 WAR probably in 2024) will get the same arb salary that Soto (12 WAR probably) gets. Vladdy .267 22 101 - 0.5 WAR - 30 million in arb Soto .355 47 99 rbi - 11.2 WAR 30 million in arb (but 560 million in free agency) My bet is the free market now way smarter than arb, Vlad to Soto arb ratio will be like 1 to 1... Soto to Vlad free agency ratio more like 10 to 1, Soto 560 10 year, Vlad 45 million 2 year.

As a side note, I don't think at all the 2021 team really had a special chance to go any where in the playoffs. They ran up a run differential early and beat the s*** out of the Orioles late as the Orioles chased Jackson Holiday and prepared for their dynasty. But the 2021 Jays held a playoff spot with 2 weeks to go then lost series to TBR and the Yankees when those teams were prepping for the playoffs and the scouting and game prep was getting back to normal.

A few weeks ago someone (can't remember who) brought up the explanation and the hard truth about the Jays offence. 1. Things looked promising in 2020 and 2021 with Jays offence looking elite and players surprising positive. 2. Something changed in 2022 with players no longer over-performing. 3. What changed was other teams processes were disrupted in 2020 and 2021 and Jays players (who are talented) excelled in the 1980s like environment where their weaknesses weren't being analyzed from 1000 different angles. 4. After Covid other teams not only brought their processes back in line but moved them to the next level. 5. Jays players can't over-perform in this current environment because their processes are behind the times.

It's hard to judge as an outsider, when all the insider information is now so complex. Can really only try to evaluate the personalities involved. Is Mattingly the guy to teach hitters in 2024? I do question whether a guy with 99.9th percentile hand eye coordination who had immediate success hitting .350 with 30 strike-outs against 80s pitching, is really the guy to understand what the Daulton Varsho's of the world go through. If you needed a successful former big leaguer to be there, it just seems guys like Bautista, EE, and Donaldson have more relevant and recent experience. Not necessarily those guys, but similar profile, a guy who actually faced some struggles but perservered and put it together and reached his ceiling. That's what we want. Some of these guys to reach ceiling of at least 75th percentile outcome, not 25th.

That's why I actually like the farm system such as it is. Davis Scneider, Addison Barger, and Palmegiani are the same guy, none getting the Jays any love from BA or Keith Law, but according to the laws of probability 3 rolls of the dice is better than one. Now I guess if you model it as these guys have a 1 in 10000 chance of success then it doesn't matter that there are 3... but if you model it that they all have 15% chance of success then it is massively important that there are 3.

Many Blue Jays prospects look great by stat-scouting but are all 24 or older... the couple of younger ones (Orelvis and Tiedemann) have a couple of warts (like hitting .200 and being kind of injured) that have prevented them from reaching the upper part of lists. You never know exactly how things will work out, but I think there is still tonnes of hope, farm system has been dinged a little much just because the players don't fit the 'baseball America' archetype... which is younger athletic healthy guy that doesn't hit .200.

Over the years the culture of the board has shifted to the mega-thread dictatorship we see today. It used to be you could come to the board and get an idea what was going on in baseball and the world. Like you'd come here and see... Topic 1: Post game thread: Bo comes through! Topic 2: Justin Trudeau... Gay?? Topic 3: Ohtani in big trouble (gambling MOB connections) Topic 4: On base percentage the most important stat still! Topic 5: Covid Vaccine killed my Grandpa. Topic 6: Ernie Clement. Batting Title (not kidding) Topic 7: Mike Wilner... total moron. Topic 8: f*** YOU SHAPIRO! Topic 9: Stadium Renovations. Topic 10: Send Vlad To Indy Ball By examining the topic titles one could immediately get a feel for what was happening in baseball and world at large, and every day was different. Depending on your interests, last nights game, Vlad's latest Slump, Justin Trudeau's latest controversy, vaccine side effects, the new stadium seating chart, or the Ohtani gambling controversy, you could choose a topic that you would enjoy. I understand that this is hard to moderate, especially with so many deviant posters starting off-topic and banned ********, and same posters randomly inserting such ******** in innocent threads... but still. Miss the days when not everyday was the same.

That isn't acceptable as far as I know. Not sure if there is an official list of acceptable words here, but I know a few posters have family members on the spectrum of learning disability, and really don't like that word, or even tamer words.

Rule changes might a help a bit, but the real problem is just reality. The three true outcome high strikeout teams score just as many runs or more as a great batting average team, or a great basestealing + on base percentage team. Back in the day the 1988 Red Sox struck out like 700 times and hit .280, the 2023 Texas Rangers hit .260 with twice as many strike-outs but score 60 more runs. The 1985 Cardinals were the greatest basestealing team ever, led the league in on base percentage and batting average and scored like 750 runs. Somebody could try and build these kind of teams again, but they'd get out-scored by 50 to 100 runs by the .260 hitting team with 240 homers and 1500 strike-outs. So let's say you changed all the rules to make it easier to hit... I don't think it would change the strategy. You'd just end up with 300 homer teams regularly as they feast off tired starters. Offense might just go totally nuts but not in the 'Wade Boggs/Willie McGee' kind of way people want it to.

Will be interesting to see where Bonilla, Guzman, and Nimmala end up this year. Will they be pushed aggressively to full season low A? If so could have have 3 18 year olds with big upside there. Memories of the 2017 low A class

If you are talking about percentage that voted for Trump ? Probably like 23% of eligible voters voted for him. I don't know exactly but half don't vote, and the half that do vote for Trump (both in 2016 and 2020) at about 46%. In America you can win the election with 23% support of the population. And it is a good thing, or otherwise common people like me would have no chance against the elites. (not trying to be political, and it is kind of baseball related because we are discussing percentage of owners who love Trump I think...)

I think they are using 'low T' as a proxy for 'obedience and low risk tolerance'. In most work places the low T obedient type has a very nice career path up to being second in charge. About 50% of work places are involved in out-right fraud, and the 'low Ts' are great at this, they are too scared to ask even basic questions ... Take recent examples of air plane doors falling off. Dudley - 'Big Bill is raging that the airplane door might fall off, sure going crazy, might even the beat the s*** out of the accountant down there, but I don't know, Mr. Kinkins is the big boss, and he'd know if the airplane door is going to fall off, so I think everything, is OK.' air plane door falls off. Dudley asked if anyone knew it might fall off. What about the Bill guy who got fired 6 months ago? Dudley - 'Big BIll? He sure was a bit of a tense guy, always yellin' and yelled too much really about who knows what. He's gone now, but Mr. Kinkins is the big boss, and he and no one else could have known the airplane door would fall. Big Bill is just a kind of scary, crazy guy. Mr. Kinkins is pretty honest as far as I know." Note the use of "As far as I know" typically low T expression, from a low T that get's 500k + a year for saying everything is OK, and no way we could have known. Now is this dynamic present in MLB? Could high T super-nerd with mind blowing innovative ideas get shut down by low T guy who says 'Yes Mr. Shaprio... right away Mr. Shapiro'. I mean Atkins played ball so his T probably higher than a Subway sandwhich guy I guess, but question is more T levels within the eco-system, and whether lower Ts (within the system) can get promoted more by behaving, just like lower Ts in any work place ecosystem.

I'm a big Orioles believer because of their greatest prospects ever and greatest GM ever (lol) However they had more wins last year than the run differential, and the run differential was better then the underlying stats. Their older players are projected to regress a little. And the young players aren't projected for anything amazing. Like Jackson Holliday, who will eventually be the greatest player ever is only projected average this year.

Interesting thing at beginning of 2015 Jays had Pompey, Devon Travis, Ryan Goins, Kevin Pillar as the group of second class prospects. I'm not even sure the group was bigger than that. Maybe you could include Andy Burns. I don't think Anthony Alford was in aaa in 2015, so can't really include him. Out of those 4 they essentially got 4 'regular on a contender' seasons. Pillar both 2015 and 2016, Goins 2015, Travis 2016 (well essentially because of injury he gave 1 complete season). There is another degree of freedom here in 'how many 'starter for a good team' seasons can these guys provide? Even if the answer is '1 or 2' if the '1 or 2' are in 2024 and 2025 that is good. The older guys like Schneider and Horwitz are actually situated like Pillar/Goins/Devon Travis. Could potentially give their best 2 seasons the next 2 years and be regulars on a contender, before starting the decay.

His performance in minor league parks as both a teenage minor leaguer and a 22 year old is historic. You are probably right about the processes being disrupted. Could also be a mental issue with the second deck (in other words a mental issue the higher pressure of MLB, but during Covid it was more laid back). Whatever the case it's not park factors that made him hit in Dunedin/Buffalo.

Nobody was talking about him 6 months ago. Obviously on the radar now. If he starts hot he is likely headed for the 1 spot as soon as early next year. This will be their 4th 1st overall prospect in a row.

I think he's had wrist/hand problems in one way or another since early 2022. Early 2022 he got stepped on in Yankee stadium. Hit 2 mammoth home runs after that and another a couple of days later, but that was the last of '2021' Vlad we saw for a while. I wonder if maybe he hurt his hand when it got stepped on and then swinging like a mad man for the next 3 days, made it worse long term. Early 2023 he was off to a .300 .380 .550 start then hurt his wrist first week of May. Sat 2 games, came back and played everyday but not the same. Just some baseless non-insider speculation from watching the games on MLB TV.