Olerud363

Olerud had the best swing in Franchise history. If Olerud came up today he would have had a much better career. Keep in mind how much we FAP about young players. Olerud came up at 21, 0 minor league games, was a good hitter but unnapreciated. Exploded on the league at age 24, winning the batting title. But he hit to all fields... not good, did not listen to Cito's lessons so Cito made him a platoon player in his prime. At age 29 he recovered from Cito's lessons and pretty much won another batting title, set the Mets all time batting average record. (Larry Walker eeked out the batting title but that was helped by thin air) Between 94 and 97 in what should have been Johny's Prime he was given "lessons" by Cito Gaston Cito - "Pull that ball" Johny (confused?) - wtf?? I won a batting title, I'm hitting .290 this year, I'll have a hot streak and get back to .300. I got more WARs then Joe Carter. (Nobody knew WARs then but if they did Johny could of said this). Cito - "Pull that ball or else..." Olerud - (singles to left) Cito - "Brumfield your in for Olerud (against a right hander) Beeston - "Johny's not listening to Cito's lessons, trade him Gord. Trade him for a bag of balls, the boys need to listen to Cito, the boys need to pull the ball like Joe" True story --

Overly optimistic predictions follow: Pitchers Norris 11-8 3.77 177 ip, 190 k, 3 WARs Sanchez 7-9 4.33 120 ip, .8 WAR Castro 60 IP - 77 k - 1 WAR Osuna 120 IP - 133 K -3 WAR (replaces Sanchez) Travis .309 12 65 rbizzz - 3 WAR Pompey .277 .377 .408 excellent D - 4 WARzzzzz

135 will actualy be quite hard... Barry Bonds never did it despite having a .600 on base percentage. Ricky Henderson only did it once. However I believe Jose Reyes can do it. I believe he can. Bautista will do it too. He will knock himself in 50 times, Then the other guys will have to knock him in 85 times. They can do it.

I want to change my prediction.... I have found a new item that adds some information that was missing... There is an article on the Blue Jays site that says Jose Reyes is going to concentrate more on getting on base, seeing pitches and scoring 120 runs... This indicates to me an important point. Beeston really has no more influence. In past years Beeston would have Cito give the boys a speech to get them ready for the season. Cito - "boys... if you're right handed try and kill the third base coach, if you're left handed try and kill the first base coach, don't wait for your pitch or you'll be caught napping, if your homerun hooks foul it means you had a good swing and I'll put it in the books even if the official scorer won't, if you want to do math go to math class but if you want to score runs get some rbis." That seems to not be happening this year -- Gibby is going to try and get the boys on base and Beeston can't interfere... Go Gibby! Beeston is worth -20 WAR, so if there is no Beeston that is 20 more wins. I officially change my prediction from 79 to 99... I will win this contest!

79 The Stroman injury I think it costs 11 wins. I will exppain. First Sanchez just got rocked today, that is the real Sanchez I think... so I figure he goes 2-7 5.67 then even worse crap replaces him. Stroman (no injury) - 19-8 2.95 7 WARs Jays win 90 Replacements - 6-14 5.22 -1 WARS Jays win 79 The other 3 wins are because it changes the dynamic around the trade deadline as well, sell on July 31 not buy. So Stroman costs 11 wins. It ended early March this year. Such is our destiny. Eternal dissapointment, no hope, nothing nice. Stroman would of given to many hope so he had to be eliminated.

I admire your positivity through thick and thin... the problem is that we aren't a 90 win projected team, we are the same 84 win projected team we know and love. Stroman was a key, in that he had the capability of producing a 6 win season -- our projections probably had him at 3, but a lot of fans dreamed that Stroman could be better than that and push the win total into the high 80s. Giving us a realistic chance. Now no Stroman. So we move back to 80-81 win projected... and we lose the guy fans felt could push us 3 or 4 wins above projections. So Tuesday morning - 84 wins with a possibly special pitcher that could push us to 87 Wednesday morning - 81 wins and harder to see the path that leads us above projection. So mentally this is a 6 win swing for a lot of fans. 87 yesterday, 81 today.

If Vernon Wells, Adam Lind or Aaron Hill, or Alex Rios had their worst seasons as rookies everybody would be saying minor league stats are meaningless. All four of these players have posted .270ish on base percentages and 0 to negative WAR the year after good hitting, 5ish WAR seasons. Everything goes up and down and up and down....

Those who are very, very good at what they do can throw who ever they want under the bus... Mike Trout, Theo Epstein. Those who are average and have a job that is rare and that others want cannot... Adam Lind, AA, Mike Wilner. But those who are average and have a job that is common can speak their mind. For example a friend I know tends bar, and there are tonnes of jobs for him around.. .he keyed his bosses car and had another job in a couple of days. AA and Wilner live in a strange place where they have to suck up. I would prefer a GM and an announcer who are a step above and can tell the Beeston's of the world to go f themselves.

Cy Young pitchers really help. I remember Roy Halladay was terrific. What about this retrospective trade proposal we should of made in late 2008 Vernon Wells, Adam Lind, Travis Snider, Alex Rios, Cito Gaston and Duayn Murphy for Clayton Kershaw The Dodgers couldn't of said no. 2 great outfielders, two great lefty hitting prospects, a (well regarded at the time) manager and hitting coach for 1 pitcher with a 4+ era We would of gotten a perrenial Cy Young and it would of saved us all the trouble of Wells salary, and Snider's failures and that "mutiny" episode with Cito,.

Interesting thought. That would of been a good one... We should of done that.

I think we should of drafted Mike Trout instead of Chad Jenkins. That's just what I think. By the way do you know what number I need to call to reach the Mike Wilner show?? Thanks

60 games, 2 or 3 innings at a time, all high leverage, tie games, one ahead, even one behind, approaching 140 innings... would be extremely valuable 70 games, 65 innings, often 3 ahead, sometimes mopping up, no not that valuable. see Eichhorn 86, or old school relievers. Hard to envision a modern reliever ever being close to a starting pitcher. Even Ecks MVP was like 3 or something. Eric Gagne looks like maxed at 4.4 WAR all roided out... but keep in mind Clemens hit 10 all roided to the max.

Is this a Moogie account?? Sorry for accusing you of being Moogie if your not. I just checked out the board today and out of nowhere this Moogie like conversation has taken over the Toritani thread. Haven't got time to read the entire thread to figure out who you are. Anyway "Gang Mentality"... that's a weird one. Let's for a minute assume science and statistics are true... For example assume that we can measure events that occurred in the past and use them to make predictions of the future. If such techniques were available they would be extremely useful and would gain a following. Perhaps these followers would be considered a gang... I don't know.

I'd be interested to hear if he put in softer things like draft position, various rankings on lists, velocity, height, weight. Just curious what the R-values would be for that kind of thing vs. Swinging Strikes.

... I'm not sure... the only comment that was 100% Real-Wilner certified is the Kang one. The others are just poking fun at Wilner in the style of the "fake-Wilner" twitter account. I have no association with FackeWilner1. But have been inspired by the account to occasionally plagerise their "fake-wilner' parody gig.

This is an old article. September 2013. Wilner hates to be wrong.... http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/wilner-goins-the-answer-for-jays-at-second-base/ Not sure what his latest thoughts on Goins are... but would Wilner say... "Ryan Goins is dog-s***, just the way it is folks. My employer Rogers is dogshit too. A few million to improve on Ryan Goins would be money well spent... but f***... Rogers is so cheap they couldn't give me $1000 dollar christmas bonus. They gave me $20 dollars off any rogers service. Thanks f***ers. My first cable bill of the year will be $210 instead of $230... but no actually. It's 20 bucks off a new service that is $100 bucks or more... so I actually won't save 20 bucks on my bill.. f*** all of you... merry f***ing christmas *******s!"

I know where they are not going because I listen to the Mike Wilner show. Transcript of recent show: Wilner (smug, condesending) - "Some of you have been dreaming of a foreign middle infielder under your stocking..." Wilner (long pause to rub it in) Wilner - "I hate to be a scrooge..." Wilner (pausing again and smirking because he actually loves being a scrooge) Wilner - "Despite the rumors this is not going to happen..." Wilner - "The Jays did not win the bidding for Kang..." Wilner - "Toritani is a Boros client... you know what that means" Wilner - "And after Hechavaria underwelmed Rogers won't give permission for AA and his scouts to bid on Cuban players..." Wilner - (Pauses, enjoys bringing christmas dissapointment to the fans) Wilner - "But I know some of you still believe in Ryan Goins..." Wilner - (doesn't believe in Ryan Goins either, but who cares... his job is to promote Rogers not promote reality) Wilner - "And you might be right. Ryan Goins might still have more to offer then we've seen so far."

And Schultz is a congresswoman I think?? For a while she was always on the air. But I don't remember seeing her much this year?? I think the Democrats muzzled some of their farther left members... to try and salvage the election.

Neither Schultz or Colmes are really in the limelight these days. Even Juan Williams I don't hear much of. I'm a casual cable news viewer. I come home at 8:30 or so and flip between O'Reilly and MSNBC hoping it will some how even out. Used to catch a bit of Hannity... but they replaced him by the Fiesty chick who told off Karl Rove... she is still pretty right wing but atleast had the self respect to tell of Rove once.

It's been 10 years I think since Colmes got a regular gig... so I can't even really remember what his views were... just that he was suppose to argue with Hannity. Guess he didn't do a good job?? Or maybe he did and that's why they kicked him off the show and let it go 100% "let freedom ring"

I live in the United States of America. My friend who earns 100,000 k a year with awesome benefits is a socialist. He hates Obama because he is way to the left of Obama. It is his view that 80,000 a year is the minimum salary required to live and everyone should get that (just about what he gets, he is willing to go down 20,000 but no more). Everyone should earn 80,000 and their are no millionaires. My friend who works 60 hours a week at various jobs and has 8 kids is conservative and really liked Mitt Romney. He earns maybe 50,000. But only because he works 60 hours a week. He loves his life. He hardly sleeps and does everything for his kids. He is extremely afraid of socialism. When you talk about socialism he is always like "get that out of my house, work an hour, earn a dollar, that's the way we do it here." That is somewhat typical of America. 75% would not vote for socialism. Recent elections show that. People are voting for Crony-Coorprotists because of their ultimate hate of socialism. Typical American "I'd rather be dominated by Goldman Sachs and Walmart and Pepsi Co. then the government. I will let those coorporations screw me, but the government cannot." The only solution is to return to individualism and step away from Demo-Repub coorporatism, and socialism. We need a new movement that centers around the individual and their rights.

That is exactly all it is. Take a guys lifetime stats. Predict he will hit that next year. You will do very well. Everything else is diminishing returns. Take a guys lifetime stats. Weight the previous year more. You will do a bit better. Take a guys lifetime stats. Weigght previous year. Use age and park factors. Now you can compete with the great minds in baseball. Any fancier and the returns are miniscule. However you can give your system a fancy name, give yourself a semi-aggressive nerd personality. Sell yourself to suits. Profit. The first simple steps of a projection system are to predict. After that it is mostly to market yourself to idiot suits.

And the problem is that for the ones who have on odd skill that is unrecognizable by the "authorities" that person loses... some dude is a great cook... he relies on an authority to recognize his skill and make him a cook, rather than working his ass off and making himself a cook. Or three guys are a seriously great cook, an ok cook, and a mediocre cook... they all get the same reward. But beyond that who gets to be fed by the seriously great cook?? How do we decide that??

It wasn't suppose to be a troll post... it was sort of semi toungue in cheek. I enjoyed watching Hannity spar with Colmes and was sad when they kicked Colmes off the show.... I enjoy listening to Rush on the afternoon drive. I read a website called common dreams.org which is about as left as you can get, I also love the drudge report's great headlines... especially during the Ebola crisis. I have read all the books by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. I like Bill James. I guess I take those two more seriously then Hannity... but I say who am I to judge?? I'm only here to listen.

You have to bully somebody to make it happen... to some the equation doesn't work out. You need central control to make decisions. Who cleans the toilet?? Who gets to invent iphones?? Who gets to be idle?? Who gets to be a Doctor?? Perhaps man is not made to live in such a state being dominated by others... even if he suffers more he may be happier struggling with the rat race and dreaming of the day he makes it big... I know I am. This is a deep philosiphical question that much greater minds have debated (like Sean Hannity and Allen Combes).