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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    exactly -- and the Red Sox games have HUGE importance... If Red Sox sweep chances would be down to 20% for a division, and just a random dog fight with detroit and balitmore for wild card. Sunday around 4:00 you could say "that's the season" and be right... or we could be back to a cushy high play off probability situation Next 4 games are super important.
  2. Olerud363
    We are tied for first with another team 1 game back. That gives us less than 50% to win the division. It is like 40% for division Could get a wild card, but that is ony 50% to get to a division series. It is 60% chance of division series right now. We've gone from 80 to 60% chance of a play off series in last 5 days.
  3. Olerud363
    If Baltimore, Boston, Toronto, and Detroit fall into a four way tie, our playoff odds will be about 75%. That is becasue with only 10-20 games left it's all a coin flip. three spots, four teams, 25% chance of being left out. Basically we are almost there... The last five days have changed it to a lottery... fairly good odds because there are 3 spots.
  4. Olerud363
    You clearly don't understand probability. KC had a 98% chance to lose that game. There were ~ 33 playoff games last year. So we would expect to see a game such as KC vs. Houston game 4 every couple of years. KC, Cleveland, Detroit, Minne, and Chicago are in that division. If you played the 2014-2016 talent levels over and over again I suspect you might find detroit and cleveland win the division more than KC. So maybe KC should of been at 25%. 20% wasn't unreasonable. If you say KC, Detroit and Cleveland are even, then they would each have 33, if you say Chicago and Minne have a slight chance than KC goes down to 30. If you think Cleveland and Detroit have a little more talent than KC, KC goes to 25% or so. A lot of this stuff you can do on the back of a napkin.
  5. Olerud363
    Exactly. Another stretch like this and it will be more likely than not we don't have a home playoff game. Friday morning - 80-90 percent chance of home playoff game Wednesday morning - 50-60 percent chance of home playoff game. Monday September 12th -- there is a scenario where we only have a 30% chance then... so given how important the next few games are there is now a very realistic scenario we our probalities are in the 30s.... There is also a scenario that play awesome the next 5 days and probability goes to 80 People are on suicide watch because we are potentially 5 days away from disaster... I hope it doesn't happen, but emotionally it feels like it is happening.
  6. Olerud363
    Sometimes I read the game thread if I miss a game, instead of watching a rerun, or just checking the score - in a weird way it is an easier way to get the news...
  7. Olerud363
    OK. Well I guess it was worse than just the ussual all I see is something like "f***IN JAYS COLLAPSE SEASON OVER - 4th Place, Wild card to Detroit" Spanky - still in first eat dicks. Guess the banning was for something worse. p.s. Will suck if Price gets hot, and Boyd and Norris get hot, and Price, Boyd, and Norris see playoffs, Jays don't to bad Spanky is banned, he would tell me to "go ride a bike" or whatever for eve mentioning this scenario.
  8. Olerud363
    Worse loss of the year by far. There is about a 50/50 chance we lose tonight... sucks... there is about a 40% chance we don't even see a multi game playoff series. If the coin flips the wrong way the season will be a huge dissapointment. Thus the anger. Friday morning Sep 2 -- Very comfortable, very happy, very positive.... could survive a small bad stretch small bad stretch comes Wednesday morning Sep 7th - playoff (series) is now a coin flip, another bad run, or bad luck, or Boston domination could end season... Things have changed a lot in the last 5 days. Coin could still flip the right way, but it is now a flip, coin is spinning.... Very bad stretch (sweep by Boston) and good play by wild teams could essentially end the season... Worst case scenario - season (essentially) over Monday morning Best case scenario - playoffs locked up (essentially) Monday morning expectaion - the coin is in the air.
  9. Olerud363
    You wonder if these people have ever watched the playoffs... we've seen an 87 win Yankee team win a series, then a 116 win Mariners team not even make it. The Cards were the best team in baseball last year, didn't make it out of division. In 2014 the World series was a coin flip between 2 .540 teams.
  10. Olerud363
    Not sure what is bad about just mentioning the board that should not be mentioned, but shouldn't the one rule be one account only?? Just glanced over this thread and do not understand why Spanky or anyone else got banned. If Spanky wants to be positive that is his choice... if he wants to tell the negative people to go eat dicks that's his choice. People are upset because Jays chances of no playoffs have gone from 5% to 20% over the last 5 days. Jays chances of at least one playoff series have gone from 80% to 60% Pretty big shift so people have the right to complain. Spanky see's that the odds are still better than even that we get atleast Division series, fair enough. What's the problem?? Looks like pretty reasonable that we have these differing opinions given the sudden decrease in playoff odds.
  11. Olerud363
    Relax... I'm just kidding around with you... Legend has it though that Cito used to be pissed when they hit a liner like that to the opposite field... Used to basically want them to pull it all the time.
  12. Olerud363
    that's why you don't go oppo... if he had pulled it would of had s homer or at least a double.
  13. Olerud363
    Nice season for Rowdy Tellez, his age 21 double a season is comparable to Delgado's in the power and average department. a) Delgado drew a lot more walks Delgado showed a lot more at lower levels
  14. Olerud363
    Boston is a better younger team, and I think the attitude reflects that. There is a feeling this is the last year... players will age another year, Bautista/EE and even Saunders may be gone next year. If Jays had a young core like Betts/Bogartz/Bradley and 2 top 10 prospects, like Boston does, I can tell you the attitude would be different. team a) old, perception they are about to "Philly", very sad to see the (potential) end, not only of this year, but for 5 years. team young (historic?) core, chill, get em this year, or next year, or any of the next 5 years.
  15. Olerud363
    Me?? I was just kidding around about the awful lineup Gibby will put out tonight... The sad thing is there is a good chance he will put up a ridiculously awful lineup... I am guessing Navarro will at least be DHing not catching.
  16. Olerud363
    "Smoaky has been real good for us... he hits it a long way when he makes contact.. and Barney has done everything we asked... you'll see those two here and there, and today we'll get them in. They're a big part of the team."
  17. Olerud363
    Gibby - "Navarro and Estrado, just worked together real well.. just somethin about those guys. And Martin, he's a real important part of the team.. you know.. we're just going to give him a little breather... he'll be back tomorrow."
  18. Olerud363
    I'm up early to go for a run - here is predicted lineup -- Bautista Donaldson EE Tulo Navarro Upton Pillar Smoak Barney - lefty on the mound for Rays I think -- so we need kind of a bad impatient lineup to make things interesting. Plus Navarro has to catch Estrado Predicted scores - Red Sox 18 As 3 Tampa - 6 Jays 1 (bottom 5 of that order a little not good) Gibby - we're fighting Wild Card guys 140 not wild card guys 82 (Wild card chasers win all games) Momentus shift - Seasons ends at around 9:00 tonight. Worse night of the year. Just a little positivity to start your day Kind of kidding... Hopefully goes well, could be good, could be bad... though not kidding about the lineup -- I expect it to be that bad if not somehow worse.
  19. Olerud363
    Votto is like worth an extra win to the Jays, over other teams, cuz it prevents Gibbons from making moves like this... I think. If Jays Acquire Votto tonight, probably Navarro DHs again Friday, and EE sits - "ya know.. Eddie hasn't got much time off, and Votto is a real good hitter, and Navarro too, always been a good guy, so just tonight we'll let Eddy have a breather, and get Navarro in there, he's always been real good for us, and Votto too, we're glad to have him and Navarro, great guys, they can hit." WTF?????
  20. Olerud363
    Maybe he will be the next Jon Singleton... I appreciate that this is unpredictable. He will be somewhere between Jon Singleton and Joey Votto... I will say that.
  21. Olerud363
    He is progressing faster the Trumbo and has a better k/bb ratio... The power of Trumbo with a better k/bb ratio?? More power then Lind?? Then he is getting pretty good... What about Garret Jones?? No. He is way ahead of Garret Jones. Actually when you do this little experiment you realize that Tellez looks like the good hitters did when they were 21. He looks a bit better than the mediocre sluggers looked at 21.
  22. Olerud363
    I think you are the first guy to lead off Bautista... Why Tulo behind EE... looks like you are basically going best hitter to worse based on career stats. Do you think Tulo is still a better hitter than EE?? Or is it like super optimized and it actually makes sense to put the better hitter fourth because he will either come up with a runner on, or lead off the next inning.
  23. Olerud363
    Votto had mediocre minor league stats, as compared to what he became. I think at this point it is hard to know what Tellez will be. There is no reason to think he will become a Votto. Adam Lind might be a reasonable expectation. It is hard for me to picture a player being the next "Adam Lind", Adam Lind is like different ever year 1. Prime Justin Morneau (2009) 2. Late 90s bad-bad Joe Carter (2010/2011/2016) 3. Solid (2013, 2015) 4. Frank Catalato (2014) Adam Lind is like a different guy every year. Very strange. Or maybe not. Maybe this random sequence around .270 .330 .470 is exactly what you would expect.
  24. Olerud363
    Ha ha... that is actually pretty funny. He won't be ordering Dominoes, they don't put up with that s*** in his town. A solitary figure was seen scouting... he sat 5 rows up just behind first base... close to the common people, but not quite among them... he could be seen eating peanuts, occasionally a pretzel, but never pizza. He took notes in ink, no need for a laptop. He would often leave in the fourth inning, having seen what he came to see... he was never wrong but always exceedingly polite and patient to those who were... he was the Grant-father.
  25. Olerud363
    Not a bad comparison in terms of "ceiling"... Some know-it-alls are allready calling you out. Tellez is about where Votto, Rizzo and Morneau were at 21... "about" -- he didn't really dominate lower levels.. I'm sure there are lots of other guys that reached the same stage... Travis Snider for one. Hope he works out.
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