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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    This is just insulting. I have a lot of friends who listen to the Rush Limbaugh show. I listen to Rush Limbaugh. I don't agree with everything he says, but lot of it is paraody. Rush does a great job at pointing out the hypocrisy of Clinton liberals. He used to work for the Kansas City Royals... Did you know that?? You realize that the ordinary Joe fears guys like you?? "Grant knows best". While you may not be a dictator you have all the classic traits of a dictator. You have a false image of yourself as a "wise one" looking down at the ordinary people. Ordinary people turn to Limbaugh because the Adrian Veindts, the Clintons, the Grants and the Justin Trudeau's of the world have failed them.
  2. Olerud363
    Alford's strikeouts were 25% at Lansing, 19% at Dunedin, then back to 28% at Dunedin this year. Anthony Goses also bounced from 20-30%. I'd be happy as anyone if Alford makes it. The fact is he strikes out a lot. So did Austin Jackson who you loved. Austin Jackson has done a bit better then Gose, but hasn't realized his early potential. It is just interesting... you make calls on lots of players... and then go and on abut the ones you are randomly right on.
  3. Olerud363
    You know full well Alford is a better prospect than Urena. And not having Harris in your top 5 is silly.
  4. Olerud363
    Classic Grant. Alford (high strike out guy) behind Urena (low strike out guy, well atleast this year) is "confusing". A little passive aggessive nudge that anyone who doesn't agree with the great Grant is "confused". Your own reality is not even consisted with itself, Grant you are a strawman along the lines of Trump, a narcosist who only follow your own nonsensical whims. Gose - an obvious failure despite reaching a+ at 19 because Grant the genius knows strikeouts are bad. Alford - destined for success, despite the strikeouts because Grant has said so by decree. I realize Alford was injured earlier this year, I realize he spent time playing football.. at the same time he is 2 years older than Gose was in Dunedin. I'm not dissing Alford... I'm just amused that that you love Alford despite the strikeouts.
  5. Olerud363
    Harold Ramirez looks a bit like Devon Travis -- short right handed guy, line drive .300 hitter in the minors. Hit like .340 last year. #statscouting
  6. Olerud363
    Jimcanuck... I am not saying scouting has no value... What you are implying is ridiculous. You say Aaron Sanchez would be flipping burgers if it wasn't for the scouts. No he wouldn't be. He would of spent most of 2015 in the minors, as his talent showed he probably would of been called up towards the end of last year to help the bullpen... kind of like what actually happened. If the stats guys had their way Sanchez wouldn't of had 10-15 s***** starts in the majors last year. However he would eventually been called up as the numbers would reflect his development. Unless you are implying that Sanchez would not of ever done well in the minors... that he was capable of (atleast) half a good season in the majors, but would not of dominated minor league hitters. That's probably ********.
  7. Olerud363
    EE/Jose going to Boston is not going to make them better then Ortiz crazy 2016 version
  8. Olerud363
    I wasn't implying you didn't get it... just encouraging you to follow the Sanchez path completely. Tell your boss that 5 full effort hours a week, during critical times are better then 40... which they probably aren't
  9. Olerud363
    If you want to truly follow the Sanchez path... What you need to do is a) Work 40-45 hours a week... occasionally getting pushed to 50 (even if not the smartest thing to do). as the big deadlines and work crunch is coming announce that to protect you from burnout you need to reduce hours to 5 a week. c) Tell them you will come in around 3:00, 2 or 3 days a week, but you will work like hell for an hour or two.
  10. Olerud363
    What part of this story isn't in the stats?? His strike-outs rates have gone down as he's progressed, he's been young for his levels. He takes some walks. Has a bit of power. He's 13-4 as a base stealer this year, which indicates a bit of speed. Looking at his defensive record he's played a lot of games in center field. Is there a clint frazier clone?? A guy with the same stats, not only traditional stats, but k/bb ratio, same age at same levels, played same positions (outfielder with a lot games in center), same base running... but with horrible scouting reports??
  11. Olerud363
    I agree, especially because the prospects that are traded are not the ones that are performing really well. When was the last time a real can't miss prospect was traded?? I am probably forgetting someone. Also.. out of all the prospects we got the last few years, the best so far (per 162 games) is Devon Travis... and that could totally be seen just using average and k-rate. That bubble could still burst, hopefully not.
  12. Olerud363
    And that isn't my point. I'm not saying there isn't change in performance level. Aaron Sanchez sucked then became good Jake Arrieta sucked then became good There was nothing magical about the fact that one sucked in the minors and one in the majors. There is no guarentee either won't start sucking again. There is nothing magical about major leage stats except sample size (more years, richer collection of stats, especially d-stats I think).
  13. Olerud363
    Thats an over-reaction. There should be a happy medium. I think for college players, and young players there isn't proper sample size, league translations, and defensive stats, for stats-only to work.
  14. Olerud363
    Like take Randy Ruiz and compare him to a seriously good hitter like David Ortiz or Carlos Delgado or Joey Votto and look what they all did in the international league... Randy Ruiz at first glance looks almost as good. He is like .300 .360 .500 or something His strike out to walk ratio is much worse His rate stats are a bit worse then the real good hitters. Even after having years and years in the international league and spending his peak seasons there. It shows up in the stats.
  15. Olerud363
    No. If you have these flaws your minor stats will be different then players without the flaws (if averaged over large number of players and seasons). The flawed players will hit .290 .350 .500 in high minors with big k rates. The un-flawed players will hit .320 .390 .520 in high minors with lower k rates. I don't mean they will exactly hit like that. But if you take large groups of the flawed, and unflawed players, and put them all in the international league The differences will show up in the stats.
  16. Olerud363
    That's the entire point. Players are inconstent and get injured, major league stats are no more predictive then minor league stats (translated properly).
  17. Olerud363
    He has a really good walk rate considering his lack of experience... Dawson didn't walk... If you translated his minor leage stats you'd get Josh Thole with a lot more strikeouts. So at this point he is on the verge of complete failure... the only hope is that it was the injury(s) that knocked him out, and he will be back next year. Next month could give us a clue.
  18. Olerud363
    I was just annoyed by the "generalization" that prospects fail, so you need to go after major league players. Major players fail as well. Aaron Hill failed after having essentially one great season, Vernon Wells failed after being signed to the biggest contract in franchise history, Adam Line had horrible seasons after a season as a great young hitter. Josh Johnson failed, Kyle Drabek failed, one a minor leager, one a major leager. Sergio Santos failed, after being Osuna for a couple of years.
  19. Olerud363
    D - could theoretically show up in stats -- at this point I'm not aware that they collect could Defensive stats on minor leagers. I'm fine with evaluating D using scouting. The rest -- K rate - is a stat BABIP - is a stat How fast has he moved?? That isn't relevant beyond the other stats. Travis Snider moved fast. Even if it is relevant it is still a stat -- Bat speed? Length of swing?? Can he hit off speed?? That will show up in the other stats.
  20. Olerud363
    I like the positivity... wish I had that quality... Yesterday was a tough day for me... everything went wrong in Blue Jay land... I was listening on the radio as Dustin had a miracle homerun and it seemed the entire momentum of the season switched. The only positive was Anthony Alford continued to hit... I know you don't like him... but in my dreams he is a combaintion of Frank Thomas and Bo Jackson... 1. Both played football. 2. Frank Thomas had the eye of an eagle and hit like Ted Williams for a few years. 3. Bo Jackson was thought to be the most athletic player out there with power, and speed, only missing eye at the plate. 4. But as I said Frank Thomas had a great eye. After Mickie Mantle no one could hit that good until Thomas appeared in 1991 5. After 1991 a few guys learned to hit that good (Bonds for example) 6. Anyway if Alford could be Thomas + Jackson it would be awesome 7. Of course it won't happen if he hits .220 with 100 strikeouts at Dunedin To hell with it I should be like you, more positive about the Jays, less positive about Alford.
  21. Olerud363
    I don't mean to oversimplify it... just saying minor stats translated properly give you a good indication of how a player will hit in the majors... then there is a delta around the translation. The problem isn't that there is something magical about major league stats... it is that most minor leaguers aren't that good. Even the highly rated outfielder the Yankees got (Frazier) is like a .280 .350 .450 minor hitter or something... that is a .250 .320 .400 major league hitter (Travis Snider territory) So the Yankees are counting on him getting better, and he might... but right now he is not that good when you translate the stats.
  22. Olerud363
    There are also Josh Johnson's, Richard Hidalgos... There are tonnes of guys who failed after establishing themselves... Eric Hinske... what about Yasiul Puig?? Starlin Castro?? I'm not saying "guys don't fail" tonnes of guys fail. Minor league stats translated propertly show WHERE A PLAYER IS. No one know what the future is. However MILB stats are reliable as major league stats if translated properly. Snider is .300 .370 .500 as a minor leaguer... some of that is in Vegas and other nice hitting parks.. so if you translate it all he is maybe .265 .330 .450 (I don't know if it is that exactly, but something like that). Majors he under performed... .240 .310 .400 of something?? However it is not like a huge under performance... The margin just wasn't that much for Snider -- he was .265 .330 .450 talent.. if he got a little better he could of made it, instead he got a little worse.
  23. Olerud363
    Little red sox fan -- Daddy where did Mookie Betts come from?? Was he a free agent?? Where did Bogartz come from?? What about Jackie Bradley JR. Who did they trade for him?? Daddy (laughing) - Where do you think they came from?? Mommy (worried) - I don't know if he is old enough to understand.... Daddy (knows best) - Let's go for a drive (vroom, vroom, vroom, up to Maine) Little red sox fan - Where are we, wow it's a little baseball stadium. Daddy smiling Mommy (proud of Daddy for knowing best) Little red sox fan -- Who are these guys?? Beni... Benti... Daddy - His name is Benninttendi, and the other is Moncada... Little red sox fan -- Wow... who are they?? Daddy -- They're little baby red sox son.. and someday they will kick the s*** out of Blue Jays and Orioles... it is the circle of life.
  24. Olerud363
    Christ all mighty this is so stupid. I'm not advocating trading Osuna -- but the "prospects fail" s*** is retarded. It's simple. Every player has an established level of performance. Maybe they will get better, maybe they will get worse. Players fail. Minor league players fail, major league players fail. There is nothing magical about producing at the major league level... Anothony Gose produced at the major league level as his minor league numbers indicated he would. Hechavaria produced at the major league level as his minor league numbers indicated he would. Mike Trout produced at the major league level as his minor league numbers indicated he would. Devon Travis - minor leagues .855 OPS, majors .822 Mike Trout - minor leagues .920 OPS, majors .950 (increased power)
  25. Olerud363
    What a bunch of s***... Really sucks. What a momentum changer -- From 2-0 up line up healthy at around 2:40 to tie game and Tulo out at 3:00... then of course lose the whole thing Buck is evil -- today evil won
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