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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Gibby is a genius.. we are all stupid?? I think that is what just happened.
  2. Olerud363
    MYGOD - I have not posted hardly at all lately... just quietly following the goings on... Nothing to insulting has happened, nothing that great either. Until this.. holy s*** some guy just hit foul homerun. Now fair homerun next?? I don't think so... just Sanchez loads bases then s***** reliever comes in...
  3. Olerud363
    YES. I thought regardless of situation one solution may be to make him a 6 inning pitcher... maybe call up Hutch and do some weird piggy back system Like Sanchez/Hutch/Stroman piggy back alternating starts... nothing gay piggy back as in one guy goes 3 the other 4... Some like thoughtful system worthy of the great brain of Shapiro/Atkins/Gibbons One of these may not be a great brain. Current system is -- Let Sanchez go until arm falls off - who cares if we lose game in process!
  4. Olerud363
    Is he fired yet?? My god he needs to be fired exactly right now. Is Demarlo interim manager?? OMYGOD PLEASE FIRE HIM. I love Gibby but this is most unexplainable move ever.
  5. Olerud363
    HOly s***. True. I thought all the data says that starters get way, way worse third time through 100+ pitches????????????????? I thought Sanchez is potentially on an innings limit because of his young arm?????????????????? I thought Sanchez is not used to batting and will screw up and could injure himself??????????????????? WHY WHY WHY WHY WHY????????????????????????? Is there any answer? Any answer at all. My god he will probably load the bases again in the 8th and not get any outs.
  6. Olerud363
    ??? What in the hell ??? Are you braindead or something. Hard swing = bat speed... there is no question about this. What you may trying to say is... "If your technique sucks you will not be able to swing hard no matter how hard you swing because your technique sucks" or "at some point increasing effort may lead to bad technique, thus the hardest swing will occur with the maximum level of effort one can exert while maintaining a nice swing"
  7. Olerud363
    It seems like Tabler and some people on this board have no clue about physics.
  8. Olerud363
    The best players on the team going forward are Donaldson, Pillar, Stroman, Sanchez, Osuna, Estrado Maybe Tulo and Travis if they can regain form. For better or worse Martin is still going to be there. We are losing 3 - 2.5 win DHs and a 41 year old knuckleballer. I think the players that are leaving, are actually not that hard to replace...
  9. Olerud363
    ?? Sarcasm ?? If he's playing in Dunedin he is hopefully a couple days away. He's not going to play in Dunedin for 2 weeks?? Is he?
  10. Olerud363
    Abolutely. There is no reason to have Sanchez out in the 9th. It's not 1992. Sanchez is not Jack Morris. I like Gibby but he needs to be fired or have be under strict supervision. 1. Sanchez had a great game, get him out on a positive note. 2. Sanchez is on an innings limit. Why stretch him?? Goal is to keep all his starts NON-STRESS 3. The latest data shows pitchers fare much worse deeper in the game. 23 year old under innings limit should be pulled after 8, after 90 pitches, after 5 if he's struggling... what is up with this crap?? Storen should be able to do the job.
  11. Olerud363
    6 years including this one.
  12. Olerud363
    ERA doesn't suck. It just takes longer to stabalize. If in 18 years Sanchez is 240-140 2.58 and Syndergard 229-188 3.10, then the ERA will be reliable Brainiacs - there is nothing special about Sanchez so the ERA will fall but... if in 20 years the ERA hasn't fallen then there is something special about Sanchez. Not that I think there is... just saying it's more about sample size and randomness than ERA.
  13. Olerud363
    Aaron Sanchez - born July 1 1992 171 innings pitched 12-9 2.62 Noah Syndergard - born August 29 1992 188 innings pitched 11-9 3.11 The super-scouts like Grant and JimCanuck - see two guys, both tall, both young, both throw hard as hell, both have a low era, Sanchez lower. Both induce weak Contact, Sanchez weaker. The egg heads say that Sanchez is an illusion, a non-real undesirable mediocrity with a high FIP, while Noah is a god among men, standing behind Ryan and Clemens only because he was born in the 90s instead of the 60s. As time marches on (as it tends to do) Noah will stand with the legends, Sanchez will stand with Brandon League. That is the story so far... Let the debate continue.
  14. Olerud363
    I do not understand this thread. Ryan Goins is a .220 hitter with a .280 on base. Or something like that. Bill James (and many, many, others) noted things go up and down. Regression to the mean - translation up and down and up and down and up and down but the mean is a good answer plots ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- above plot not realistic doesn't go up and down /|___/\/\/\M/\~~~~~/\__/\ above plot is more realistic up and down up and down (not totally realistic) Ryan Goins true average - .220 Ryan Goins current average - .160 Ryan going will regress to the mean -- you can regress up as well. If Ryan goins is at .160 he will go back to .220 If Ryan goins is at .260 he will go back to .220 That is regression to the mean. Do not worry about Ryan so much as he will arrive at his true mean of .220 average Sorry to be so long -- just the same arguments happen so much -- trying to add some clarity
  15. Olerud363
    at least Jays are symetrical -- what you believe on pitching you must believe the opposite on offense -- Like Cito to pitchers - Walks are bad boys. Do not walk the others. Cito to hitters - Walks are bad boys. Do not walk. It need to be the opposite to atleast have consistent views. Jays to Stroman - ks take lots pitches, grounders, grounders, grounders. Jays to hitters - ks use up pitches, strike out all you want, don't hit to contact, We have a great organization now because we are consistent in our logic
  16. Olerud363
    Jays lose 4-1 -- very sad day -- lots of strike outs for the offense, 3 hits, 1 solo homer by Goins (will he stick) Poor Stroman first loss 7 innings pitched 2 walks 7 hits, 2 ks, lot of grounder, but 2 worm killers sneak through then homer.
  17. Olerud363
    What is annoying is people who don't understand standard deviation, or hypothesis testing. They use the eye test to evaluate players, they are right on some. They do not stop to consider whether. 1. Are their predictions, over a large sample better than random chance? 2. Are their predictions, over a large sample better than predictions made by advanced stats? So yeah... they can say "yo bro, advanced stats can't capture the brilliance of Ryan Goins, only an ace like me, who's watched every game since 81 (out west in the 70s) can do that" and when Ryan Goins is hot they can take credit. But is it true over a longer history?
  18. Olerud363
    I would guess the Jays of 2013-2016 are an 85 win team. Randomness give you dud seasons (high 70s) and good seasons (low 90s) What we see the last weeks is the bubble bursting. It's not a true talent 95 win team, it's 85.. which is scary to people cuz you need a little good randomness to make the playoffs, a little bad randomness will make the season an 78-82 win dud.
  19. Olerud363
    It seems to me the hive got caught up in the excitement. I remember a lot of (Gruber is RIGHT!) threads last year. Here is an insidious theory It was not just Colabello -- it was more -- when the mushroom got caught it had to stop.
  20. Olerud363
    Thanks for the post. You are probably right in that there are illusions being created because of small sample size. However there are things to really worry about. Like Ryan Goins. Part of the magic last year was Ryan Goins "Sticking". The story was he made some adjustment and was now a spunky 9 hitter that could get on base a bit for the top of the line up. Actually he sucked all along (maybe) and just had a little good luck last year. R.A. Dickey - Part of the magic last year was R.A. Dickey was good R.A. Dickey for 4 months... now he just rots. Marcus Stroman - the Stro show was suppose to be the ace -- now he's just another average guy Just mentally it seems the bubble burst.. hopefully just a small sample size illusion and things turn around.
  21. Olerud363
    Run differential has gone negative. The bullpen has looked bad, which is frustrating. Tulo and Martin and EE look old (and they are relatively). Bautista looks OK but is the oldest of all... What else -- Goins and Pillar look the pumpkin burst. The offense just looks bad, a combo of burst pumpkins and old guys. Stro and Sanchez look mediocre. Dickey looks done. Not saying it is all true.. just pointing out that there is a narrative that people are seeing and worrying about... and it is worrisome good players are old, young players aren't that good.
  22. Olerud363
    Abslolutely -- he is a mediocre individual, no question -- not an ace at all. He should be 5-0 given support he had. The little grounders will eventually find holes leading to games like we saw last night, and against Boston. He has changed the course of the season and perhaps the course of history. If he was -strow show- we would be 12-9, Stro 5-0 and all would be OK Instaead the sox and Os got it this year, we are mediocre, we will Philly starting in August, 5 years of hell, Shapiro gets fired, Jays hire dumb guys (it will always goes smart/dumb), dumb guys go for 7 year, screw up everything more, then in 2027 smart guys hired again, but it takes 5 to fix it. Cuz there was no Stro-show we have entered Year 1 of 20 year drought.
  23. Olerud363
    Fair point. I've argued before that there _could_ be a hypothetical "comfort" factor at work here. If a guy is more comfortable in a certain spot, he will hit better there and this will make up for non-optimal lineup construction. Obviously Gaston and Gibbons believe in this... but is it true?? Like if you led off Bautista does he hit exactly the same?? If so then he should be lead off. Since he is not lead off. 1. The Jays don't believe he will hit exactly the same. 2. They believe he could but he will be grouchy and he won't 3. They beieve he could and he will but he will be grouchy anyway so it's not worth it. I think any answer come back to this. The Jays believe there are some intigible benefit to non-optimal line up construction. Or else they'd just fire Gibbons right, and put in a guy who will optimize the lineup. Then firing Gibbons of course might still cause a bit of bad will, which might have an intagible negative effect, so don't fire Gibbons, it goes around in circles.
  24. Olerud363
    Well it seems you are higher on Sanchez' than most... but maybe this whole thread is just a giant misunderstanding. There are formal ways that you can approach these problems. Not that anyone is really doing that. People are just throwing around words like "ceiling", "ace", "likely" blah, blah, blah... I think the main point I've heard lately is that even though the k-rate looks good he is not getting guys to swing and miss... which is not a good indicator,. We'll see how it all turns out.
  25. Olerud363
    I agree that no one can say with certainty that Sanchez will be an average pitcher. On the other hand there is no reason to think he will be better then his "group". If you want to argue he will be better then his group, then explain why... that knowledge itself will redefine his group. (assuming other haven't thought of it)
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