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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    Stats work based on "features", or characteristics of the phenomena you are measuring. So you say the traditional stats don't work for Sanchez. OK. How do you know predictive stats don't work for Sanchez?? Well you say "It didn't work for Carpenter and Sanchez is like Carpenter" OK. How is Sanchez like Carpenter?? Well you say "he is tall and throws such and such pitches" OK. Fine. Express that to the guys you are arguing with and make them rebut. They will say 1. "No there are many pitchers like Carpenter (show some fancy fangraphs s***) and only a small percentage had success. or... 2. No, Sanchez actually is not like Carpenter (show some fancy fangraphs s***) or... 3. By God Jim you are right.
  2. Olerud363
    Regression to the mean doesn't mean you do bad tomorrow if you did good yesterday. It means you always go back to your career averages + aging curve + bonus points for recent performance tomorrow = f*(career average)+a*(what you did recently) where f is a factor for age, 'a' depends on how much you weight recent performance (which is arguable. But the hive indicated in Jay Bruce discussions that they do weight recent performance heavier) simply put Smoak and Colla can be expected to hit at their average tomorrow. So at this point they can be expected to improve back to their mean.
  3. Olerud363
    10% is reasonable... Then the correct way to proceed would be for the Statheads to give you Sanchez 10th, 50th, and 90th percentile projection. I wonder if his 90th percentile projection is at "ace" performance level? If it is not they can yell at you more.
  4. Olerud363
    To be fair, here is what I expect from Jim Canuck Dear Hive I estimate that Aaron Sanchez has a 60% chance of being an ace. I came to this conclusion by watching Chris Carpenter pitch for several years, then blossom with the Cardinals. Sanchez is just like Carpenter (based on my personal observations and gut instinct). If you need references I can dig up the notes I took in the 90s while watching Carpenter. I also have VHS tapes of him. I can make copies. You will need a VHS player. Thanks Jim Canuck
  5. Olerud363
    Translation: People that spend a lot time thinking about these things and write apps and post the results on the internet think Aaron Sanchez will have a 4.00 era. There is always a chance that his projection's standard deviation is high. Which would mean he has a higher chance of being an ace then another guy projected for a 4.00 era. Not sure this would be true... I should probably apologize to the hive... I am sure if I looked everything over I'd find more posts referencing the various projections.
  6. Olerud363
    The hive are being *******s to you in a way. Nobody is using any percentages in this conversation. It's just the usual "yo bro no chance" Of course Sanchez has a chance of being an ace. Is it it 1/1000?? 1/100?? 1/5?? Even odds?? No idea. Probably 5% or something. What do you think the chances of Sanchez being an ace are?? No idea about that either. 1/5?? even odds?? It would be nice to see people use numbers. Here is what I expect from the hive Dear Mr. Jim Canuck We (the hive) project that Aaron Sanchez has only a 2.73% chance of becoming an ace (which we define as 3 year peak WAR>15). We arrived at this conclusion by using an ensemble of projection methods which included several of our proprietary schemes. More details can be found in the following publications (insert links here). We suggest researching our references thoroughly. Please post questions on the Sabermetrics thread. Thank you for your continued patience The hive
  7. Olerud363
    I agree with your assessment... I was just trying to be family friendly... given that there is a number of minors on the site, and also maybe a few who are older but saving them selves for marriage... so these people might just go on dates with girlfriends to movies and starbucks and not go any further.
  8. Olerud363
    you go s*** 1 time a day on average, but one day go 10, you regress to 1.2... cuz you go back to average, with a little bit extra cuz maybe a infection subtly changes your microbiome you go s*** 10 times a day on average, but one day go 1, you regress to 2... cuz probably you figure out something, like you have celiac disease, and you solved problem sometimes it's not symetrical... if good reason for outlier, you don't regress very far back.
  9. Olerud363
    Stroman regresses to 4 months Hutchison regresses to 12-10 4.12 you just go back to where you came from... if you have 2 girlfriends a month and one month you get 10 you regress to 3.. cuz you go back to average, but you 10 indicates you might of learned a bit more how to pick up girls, so you go back to average + a little bit if you have 10 girlfriends a month and one month you get 2 you regress to 8 cuz you go back to average, but the 2 indicates something might of changed, like you got uglier, or older, or married.
  10. Olerud363
    Blue Jays message board have small misunderstanding on what regress is -- if some guy usually plays 132 games == a) if he play 150 predict he goes back to 132 but not all the way back (like 140 - something might have changed) if he play 40 games predict he goes back to 132 but not all the way back (like 110) If he play 0 game he likely a) badly injured like Maicer Izturus dead c) quit cuz son could not come to clubhouse
  11. Olerud363
    I think the fangraphs is smart so it gives him 1.8 WAR (accurate) based on peripherals. So his other stats will regress to 2 WAR level. His WAR could be the same even if his ERA goes up a run. Like if he goes 11-11 4.00 he might get 2 WAR for that.
  12. Olerud363
    Donaldson .270 30 hmzz 100 rbzzz 5 WARzzzz (defense down a bit) Bautistazzz 132 gamz 31 hmmzz .258 .370 .501 EE - .265 29 80 Tuloz .280 25 80 Sanchezes - 11-11 4.09 171 ip, 132 k, 88 bb Grant - regresses to very few Sanchez posts (if Sanchez starts cold 2-4 5.33 for April) or lotz of Sanchez posts (Sanchez start hot 4-1 2.55 april)
  13. Olerud363
    I'm not sure I'd classify Grant as a Troll. A troll posts opinions just to get a rise out of people, I honestly think that Grant 100% believes everything he posts. just m2c -- I totally understand why people are annoyed at him. I think he is actually quite genuine. He just doesn't get the concept of "who the f*** knows", "I was wrong", "I'm not sure" and "good point brother"
  14. Olerud363
    I wonder if (all left handed first basement)/(all first basemen) < (left handed first base gold glover winners)/(all first base gold glove winners)
  15. Olerud363
    First is special cuz if your lefthanded it is the only infield position you can play. Don Mattingly may be as Athletic as George Brett but can't play third.
  16. Olerud363
    Center fielders can easily be sent to left or right without anyone blinking... In fact it happens all the time. Shortstop going to 2nd or 3rd seems like a bigger deal. Guy has to take grounders at third for a few days... second would be even worse... he'd have to learn the footwork for the double play and it would be a long term thing.
  17. Olerud363
    If you were Grant why would you stop using a stat that puts Sanchez in a group with Betances, Chapman, Davis and Kenley Jansen? Previously Grant was using ground ball rate, which put Sanchez in a group with Brandon League, Sam Dyson, Brad Ziegler and Zach Britton. Only one of those guys is elite... So Grant, clever little rascal, switched to using triple slash, and now has Sanchez in the top tier with the best in baseball.
  18. Olerud363
    "Trump?? Trump's a pussy. I would of liked to see Stienberner run for President. He would of made America great again. Steinberner and Nixon were tight. Look it up. Then hippies got into their business and screwed them both. Messed up the country. Haven't been the same since. I'll vote for Trump, only because the others are all bigger pussies"
  19. Olerud363
    I don't think they play it safe... There are just rarely teams that are True 95 win teams. The projections are more like long term averages. - Jays have been projected for about 85 the last 3 years. - their actual performance was 78, 84, 93 They hit the average exactly. The variation was pretty typical
  20. Olerud363
    If you did 60% + ground ball rate, and 95+ fast ball velocity you can get Brandon League back in the conversation too... maybe that is out-Granting Grant, cherry pick the criteria so the guy I want (League) just squeaks into the picture.
  21. Olerud363
    Oh? You don't say. You know what does the best job of interpreting the natural variance in the recorded outcomes? The tools that say Sanchez is as bad at pitching as you are at posting.
  22. Olerud363
    Give NJH an extra thanks next time you read a post of his... borrowed a little of his material today... hope I don't hear it from his Lawyers
  23. Olerud363
    Plenty of pitchers have existed at his age. Plenty of pitchers sit ~94. Plenty of pitchers get groundballs. Plenty of pitchers have s*** command. Only Blue Jays fans who don't really watch other teams think that Sanchez is some f***ing unicorn talent.
  24. Olerud363
    How about a compromise... let's just reply to Grant using old Sanchez thread material... don't close the thread but don't write any new material For example this one has some good material you can cut and paste http://www.bluejaysmessageboard.com/threads/4762-Sanchez-Performance-To-Date/page11
  25. Olerud363
    He throws 94. Lots of guys throw 94. Also, we should keep in mind that his velocity has peaked and will start to slowly decline from now on. That's how that aging curve works. We have no reason to think Aaron Sanchez is any sort of outlier. GB rate, velo, movement....it's all just data that gets fed into a projection machine. And that projection machine is going to do a better job over the long run than our feeble minds.
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