Olerud363

It is better to hit for average than power (within reason). This is 100% true. There is no denying this. If you deny this you deny math, logic, sanity and the future of humanity. Matt Carpenter in 2013 had 11 homers By 2015 he increased that to 28 homers He was better with a higher average and 11 homers.... Now if you are saying it is no longer possible to hit .320 and if you try you will fail and hit .250 that is a different thing.... like no one can hit for average anymore so might as well hit .250 with 30 homers... that is different though. Saying .250 29 homers .330 on base is better than .320 11 homers .390 on base is insanity and anti-science waka doodle stuff. Saying guys can't .320 anymore because of the analytics and pitching patterns but could hit .250 and run into 28 homers... that is a little different.

That statement is insane. Every analytics department knows how runs are scored. Hitting for average at the expense of power is a good trade off as long as it succeeds. If you try to hit .275 as a team, and you do. Very good. Problem comes in if you try to hit for average and hit .235 (as Jays have done). Just look at Blue Teams throughout the years... don't you watch the game? It's not black and white of course, the very best teams hit for power and average. 2010 Blue Jays 257 homers 750 runs... 2005 Blue Jays 136 homers 775 runs... 2021 Blue Jays 262 homers 846 runs.. 1993 Blue Jays 159 homers 847 runs... 2019 Blue Jays 247 homers 706 runs... 2023 Blue Jays 186 homers 746 runs 2023 Blue Jays scored more runs than many teams that hit for more power. And Jays correctly thought if they hit for even a better average, they'd get even more runs even while sacrificing more power. The problems is they are hitting .235.

One thing that is funny about this year is the offense problems are a good part batting average related... I think at the beginning of the year the eggheads did the math, and (correctly) figured out that a 'no power bro' team, with 150 homers (low total for this age) but a .265 team batting average would score enough runs, and they would have. A .265 .330 .420 team would score like 775 runs a great total these days. Problem is the team is actually hitting .235 and most every player has a lower batting average then you would expect. Don Mattingly's hitting tips, that the eggheads thought would result in a team with a good batting average, have instead led to the team under-performing their batting average. Like Varsho should hit .240 but is .198. Schneider .250 but .210. Bo .300 but .240. It's weird. Maybe Don Mattingly's hitting tips don't work in 2024. I don't think anyone expected Varsho to hit .300 But you think maybe, Varsho hit's .220 last year, but with a real focus on batting average and contact and Don Mattingly's hitting tips he can hit .240... but instead he hits .198. So I think from a nerd perspective the idea that "if" a "no power bro" team could hit .265 it would work, is correct. However something about the pitching, the defense, the scouting, the game prep, makes it hard to hit for average now and focusing on hitting for average makes it worse somehow.

Some firstbasemen hit's .280 .360 .400 with neutral defense and has 3 WAR BJMB - "no power bro" need all time Keith Hernandez defense for firstbase with no power to work Some firstbasemen hit's .300 .400 .450 with neutral defense and has 4 WAR BJMB - "no power bro" need all time Keith Hernandez defense for firstbase with no power to work Some firstbasemen hit's .240 .300 .490 with 36 homers with -2 WAR defense and 1 WAR total BJMB- "There you go. Power. That's what a firstbasemen needs to do!

Probably about 7-10 years ago there was a bunch of huge arguments on the board about defense and how value changes when moving positions. Probably should review the Tango thread, but my understanding is the D-systems are designed so that players maintain consistent value when moving positions. So hypothetically if Horwitz can 'stick' at second, he should also be one of these neutral defense first basemen. So if he's holding his own at second, he should also be a very good defensive first basemen and his WAR won't change much moving to first. As a side note the only thing that doesn't make sense to me about all this, is that moving positions there may be more opportunities for difficult plays. So while a neutral defensive player shouldn't change value too much changing positions. A very good, or very bad defensive player might change value a lot going to a more difficult position (because more difficult plays they make/don't make). This seems to agree with fan's intuition (Varsho has more value in center, "hide" bad d-players at first or left).

This isn't true and just a reflection of the rarity of this type of player. Often because if they are good enough to put up neutral defense at first they are good enough for another position (think Matt Carpenter for example). I mean 2002 "Money Scott Hatteburg", 2017 Joe Mauer, even Vlad 2024 was on track for 3 WAR even before his power showed up. The "no power bro" line drive hitting first basemen can be from -2 to 8 WAR just like any other. Rarer type of player but math is still math and it adds up if the player is contributing positively. It's not like they need all time defense, just need to have a -0.5 WAR defense instead of -2... That isn't any different for the big time power guys like Rowdy and Vlad. 2022 Rowday and 2023 Vlad are 1 WAR players too despite 118 mph max exit V and 470 max distance (80 max power basically).

Orioles Hangout -- a place of forever joy, a place of happiness, a place of confidence, a place of goodwill, a place of hope, a place of excitement, a place with a future. And all it costed was a 5 year losing cycle, 2 of which were in pandemic conditions. In October 2016 both the Orioles and the Blue Jays cycles ended. Jays beat the Orioles in a wild card game and had a nice playoff run. Since then, as of July 3rd 2024 Playoff appearances - Oriole 1, Jays 2 Division title - Orioles 1 Jays 0 Playoff wins - Orioles 0 Jays 0 Playoff round 2 appearances - Orioles 1 Jays 0 Anticipated winning cycle year Jays 2020-2023, Orioles 2022-2032 Orioles started winning cycle 2 years later, but will likely go 9 years longer. This comparison will not be getting any better for the Jays

Projections might still include his minor league numbers which were good and maybe they include his batted ball data? I don't know. I haven't really looked at his batted ball data, but maybe everything except his batting average suggest he should hit .240, so the projection system still thinks he should hit .240.

Nimmala (not Nimmila) hit .230 .460 .500 or something in the Junior Varsity morning league and got back to Dunnedin. Bonilla is hitting .220 .290 .330 or something in JR Varsity morning league. I think Nimmala has some nice raw power. There is a video of him hitting homers like a grown man. The fan beyond the outfield fence takes a small step in (because in that league they mostly just go over the fence by a few feet), then has to turn around and watch it hit the back fence. Nice stuff. https://www.milb.com/video/arjun-nimmala-s-solo-homer?t=playerid-805796

Nimmila did what he was suppose to do in the jr. varsity morning league and is back in Dunnedin hitting a bit better. Nimmila walked more in like 7 games than Bonilla has in 33. Nimmila has a pulse and we look to see if he can get to Vancouver in the next year (Jays probably shouldn't send him to Vancouver right away next year, unless he really destroys Dunnedin the rest of the way). Bonilla on the other hand is awful. Will he ever get to Dunnedin? Will Tucker Toman ever get out of Dunnedin?

The comparison isn't to Espinal overall, it's to Espinal at his best. Espinal was suppose to be a good player, decent defense, average on base, and was like that for maybe 8 months in 2021 and early 2022. Sometimes this happens. Guy's peak at 27 at Espinal was probably already peaked when he got here, and started to decline after a year or so. Jiminez will get there earlier, and probably is a bit better, so he might be able to provide 4 years of the performance that Espinal did between 2021 and first half 2022.

Bo made it in 3 years basically from the day he was drafted. If it works even a high school player will take 3 years to make it a good college player 2 or less. Impact talent shows it early and makes it fast, and the idea of getting a better draft position is to get not only a better player but one that can get here quicker. It's the Jays though, they'll choose the wrong guy and it will take 6 years for them to get to Buffalo, and by the time they get here they will be worried about a mortgage, 3 kids and almost past prime.

I'm the only sane one. The phones have messed up everyone's brain and I don't use phones for input (I talk on them, and mindlessly scroll through s***, but don't order pizza, write e-mails or anything, or press the phone buttons much, do that on an older style machined called the 'desktop PC' (if at home) and the 'laptop PC' if on road (Home has Windows 10 and they are making me upgrade to 11 soon, laptop has Ubuntu, both have nice qwerty keyboards for expressive typing). So to those who don't know what the QWERTY keyboard is and have never used one for the old style communication which was a bit longer than the phone style communication... Short "YO BRO" version - 97 MPH fastball hit Vlad on finger. Finger might be crushed and big time slump might happen! Trade value might tank! Yo Bro!"

It was on the front page yesterday, maybe some weird glitch I don't see a bot post now that I look. I figured maybe I accidentally went to the last page of posts... however that takes you all the way back to 2013. This one was from 2014. More things change the more they stay the same though... Sort of were discussing Bautista who lasted to 34 then collapsed, now Springer has collapsed even earlier.

Looks like Vlad got his hand beat up.... We'll have to see if his performance craters the next couple of months but it wouldn't surprise me... 1. We've seen this before. Good hitter, get's the hand hammered, no DL, X-rays negative but performance goes down for a couple months. 2. It's the 2024 Blue Jays, just when you can dream getting a really good prospect or two for our newly rejuvenated 25 year old generational hitter, something bad has to happen. Prediction Vlad goes .200 .250 .290 until trade deadline because of micro injuries to hand, and has no trade value. Will be ready to mash when Red Sox get him in 2026, but they get him for a 3 / 30 or something and Jays don't even risk a compensation offer. It's the Blue Jays you know it's headed there. Vlad 2024 - .260 18 80 (today's hand injury f***s the rest of the year up) 2025 - .272 22 85 (depression, obesity, hand injury, bored of Jays) no qualifying offer Red Sox sign him 3/30 2026 .355 45 128 for Red Sox, happy, healthy, and ready for a 15 year run of joy

Seattle could be an option. I didn't mention them because hitters sometimes don't like to go there because of visibility and dead air... I'm thinking to maximize return it should be a place Vlad would sign long term. Mets maybe too?

Casas comes back and hits like Daubach for a month (because of sore rib) Vlad continues to hit like roided Barry Bonds for 1 month Vlad hitting .310 .380 .540 and looks like the legend he was suppose to be Mayer/Cassas/Teal for Guerrero + other things red sox need. Just kind of thinking through the "what if". What if Guerrero is a Pujols temporarilly trapped in a -2 degree launch angle body but gets freed? What would he be worth if GMs believed he was freed and evaluated him with his minor league numbers, 2021 numbers and June/July 2024 numbers ? (And from the Blue Jays perspective you want everyone to believe the narative of Vlad the legend if you are trying to trade him... ) Vlad - 4 time all star, 2nd place MVP, greatest minor league hitter ever, homerun derbie champion. 118 mph max velocity, 80 grade power, 80 grade hit tool. Top 3 in mlb exit velocity, launch angle fixed!

Let's say he re-establishes himself as a top 3 hitter, or close enough a team thinks they can get him there. Here are the teams that can get him 1. LA - already set at DH and 1b 2. Yankees - he hates them? 3. Boston - Cassas is there but... Devers/Guerrero = Ortiz/Ramirez (if Guerrero back) 4. Toronto - total s*** show of a franchise and maybe this has run it's course 5. Philadelphia - maybe 6. Atlanta - already set? Maybe AA finds a way to get him back 7. Baltimore - set to be a great franchise and will probably spend before long, but freak park not a fit for Vlad.

Casas is out for the year isn't he? They have Dominac Smith and Yoshida at 1b and DH hitting like .230 .300 .330 between them. They could use a legend. They could use a .350 .450 .650 hitter They could use the second coming of David Ortiz They could use the second coming of Manny Ramirez The city of Boston needs Joy and happiness, the Vladito would provide it. The city of Toronto needs hope and a future the return for Vladito could provide. Board members pretend for a second... Pretend you are not a dysfunctional malcontent with zero social skills posting on BJMB. Pretend you are a real GM. Pretend you are a salesman, you are an alpha, you are a con-man, you are slick, you are smart, you are rational, you have good social skills, you are a negotiator, you are a persuader. Vladito is not a fat useless 1 WAR failure.. he is legend, he is love, he is happiness, he is Joy, he is Pujols, He is Guerrero but he only has 1.5 years left. Get Toronto something.

I still believe he's destined for the Red Sox. If he is really back the Red Sox are contending and have issues at first this year. Let's say he continues this for another month... He's back. He's a .350 .450 .650 legend and deserves to be destorying the Monster and bring happiness to Boston until 2041. However for the good of the game we don't want to completely destroy Toronto. Is there a trade that works? Cassas, Marcalo Mayer, and Kyle Teel. Too much for fat 1 WAR Vlad, but what if he really is back? What else would the Jays have to give? Not looking for people to say 'yo bro, Red Sox hang up.'. Looking to hear how you make a trade that helps the Red Sox this year, gives them their franchise player (the .350 .450 .650 version of Guerrero) but gives the Blue Jays some small level of hope. This is all assuming hypothetically Vlad is back, probably today when he swings at 3 low and outside sliders, grounds into 2 double plays, and hits a 115 mph single off the wall, I'll realize how stupid it is to think he is back.

Seems like this thread got bumped by a spam bot or something, and even I couldn't quite figure out at first, what I was ranting about 10 years ago... I guess it was the fact that AA wasn't involved in payroll decisions, when he should have been heavily involved in payroll discussions. In retrospect this actually gives some deeper insight into why he left. It probably wasn't just Shapiro, but he really didn't have that much power in his time in Toronto and probably didn't want to work under that dynamic again with Shapiro.

More final outcomes for Shapiro era Blue Jays... Marcus Stroman - gets to go to the Yankees and yells at all the other Yankees when their defense isn't up to his standards (not sure how long he will be getting away with that...) Shohei Ohtani - Was actually going to sign with Blue Jays but turns out his translator had made a 200,000 dollar bet he would sign with the Dodgers. Baltimore Orioles - After getting beat by the sort of Shapiro Blue Jays (mostly made by AA) in 2016 wild card game, decide to hire Havard Wiz kids or something to make generational dynasty.

More Shapiro era outcomes... Mike Wilner - gets fired from radio announcer job and is now a podcaster and twitter personality but uses his twitter account to recruit people to Blue Sky or something. Other Blue Jays announcer - gets fired so they can hire Dan Schulman's son. Dan Shulman's son - has nice announcer job but has to announce from podcasting studio if Jays on road.

Alex Anthopolous - Goes on to win World Series and be front office man of the year (that one is true it already happened) John Gibbons - has some podcast from his Texas ranch in between cushy coaching/scouting jobs former managers get. Maybe John Schneider will someday help with the podcast in between his cushy coaching/scouting jobs.

With last nights embarrassing loss and the rotten state of the farm system we can call the Shapiro era over. He may stay to the end of his contract but it is done and here are the final outcomes (some predicted but obvious predictions) for everyone involved Shapiro - gets to be commissioner Blue Jays farm system - destroyed Ross Atkins - probably gets to be assistant commissioner John Schneider - gets forever employment as 3rd base or bench coach or scout even if he doesn't get another managers job Rogers Stadium - Have to say it actually looks very nice Playoff Wins - 0 Vladimir Guerrero Jr - Will sign 10 year 370 million contract with Red Sox who put final fixes on Launch angle and goes on to have several .350 .450 .650 years for them Bo Bichette - Signs with some team and plays well for many more years. Teoscar Hernandez - Hangs around having fun and helping playoff teams Danny Jansen - now a vet catcher signs with some playoff bound team Alejandra Kirk - goes on the weight loss drug and has some Russel Martin years for a well run but financially limited team. and finally.. Blue Jays fans: Generations of sadness watching the other teams have joy! OK. That's enough. Too long to read on the phone already. If you have any other predicted outcomes for Shapiro era players let me know!