Olerud363

His numbers are very similar to Russel Martin's first few years, and Russell also had a couple of years in his mid 20s where something was bothering him and he was powerless. Martin's WAR was higher because he was getting insane defense scores (Kirk's are very good, better than Varsho per game, but not as good as Martin's). I wonder how much of that is just the other catchers getting better at framing, so the amount above average for a good framer is less than it used to be. Kind of funny but Russell sort of switched to more of a 20 homer .230 guy with a higher k rate after really struggling as a low power contact hitter (except for one Random season with Pittsburgh where he returned to being an on base machine). According to fangraphs I think Kirk is one of the top 3 defensive players in the game, per game. All 3 are catchers though so maybe the system rewards catchers disproportionally.

I think the mid 90s Jays organization also cost Delgado the hall of fame... At 21 Delgado was right there with the best hitting prospects in baseball, Thome, Manny Ramirez, and he honestly didn't start reaching his potential until Gaston left in 98... Delgado probably also missed 200 games because the Jays couldn't get him started early. One thing Guerrero has is despite struggles at times he hasn't missed a game because of demotion or strange 'need to learn young man' ********. So if Guerrero lasts as long as Delgado he'll have an extra 300 games on the early end.

Games 2056 to 2200 Lifetime 58 to 57 Top 3 7.3, 6.9, 6.4 to 8.1, 8.1, 5.8 wRC+ 145 to 130 FG defense -150 to -50 If you believe fangraphs defense it's pretty close... Voto ahead per game. Olerud better best 3 seasons suprisingly since Votto won an MVP. I will die on this hill. Cito Gaston cost Olerud a hall of fame career. 200 missing games, platoonish 15 homer 60 rbi seasons in his prime where he had to sit for old Pat Tabler and Jacob Brumfield. Olerud's performance increased when playing everyday... the platoon seasons probably demoralized him... If this happened today there would be riots in the street, but no one knew the fangraphs at the time.

On a serious note it is interesting that his walk rate and intentional walk rate is way below Bonds. I think the math probably shows you don't walk him a ridiculous amount. With the real time probabilities they have now they probably are a bit more picky with the intenitional/semi-intentional walks. So he probably is just as productive as Bonds but they know you don't artificially crank his on base percentage up to .600 as that is counter productive.

Do not tell them the story of Derek Fisher.

Who is the most similar player to Addison Barger through age 24? Aaron Judge. Similar minor league numbers and similar major league 1st crack. Judge was nothing special in the minors and horrible first time through the majors. Look at Aaron Judge through Oct 1st 2016. Then hug your favorite struggling Blue Jays. Hug Addison. Hug Loperfido. Let them know they are Aaron Judge through age 24 ** (**Aaron Judges' outcome may not be typical, however you still need to not give up on these guys).

The combo of his fly ball rate and k-rate is much worse than the other two and I bet he still projects as a .190 hitter in the majors. Look at how hard it's been for Daulton Varsho to overcome sky high pop up rate... look at how long Orelvis struggled at higher levels (though some of that may have been because he was taking women's hormones trying to start a family). I guess the good news is that by the time Nimmalla makes it to the majors, .190 will be the major league average. And Daulton Varsho believe it or not, despite all his problems, is a league average hitter this year.

Why is that stupid? Bassitt is a multi-millionaire already. Worst he could do is get himself on the naughty list and never get another job in baseball. More likely worst is he pisses off his current employer and finds himself with a new one. So if he gets happiness from dissing the front office then he is smart, because he is obtaining his goal in life. Not everyone cares about climbing the corporate food chain. I think in general talking smack about your company isn't stupid if you have no long term need for a relationship with the company. In the cases I've disrespected the corporate chain of command, certainly I wasn't long for that one company, but overall it wasn't a stupid move and other companies didn't care. We don't know what Bassitt's end goal is, but if he is dissing his boss it doesn't make him stupid. Framing it that way isn't right. We don't know what Bassitt wants in life. If he gets joy from a different style than you do, he's just a different cat trying to make himself happy by dissing the man. No stupidity there.

Josh Bell needed 37 homers to get up to 3.0 WAR Old Joe Mauer, The 1b Joe Mauer, broken Joe Mauer got 2.8 WAR with 7 homers playing 1b Old Joe Mauer, last of his kind. These guys aren't old Joe Mauer or Keith Hernandez. They are 30 homer guys who sometimes have ground ball issues.

Is there a free api to get all that s*** into python? All these guys pop like 28 homeruns in their power seasons. I don't know ... On a team level just can't imagine some team sacrificing power for average and scoring 800 with 125 homers anymore... And kind of funny the way Spencer Horwitz's numbers are shaping up so far. Looks like a .260 hitter with 20 homers... I guess .260 is the new .290. But like in other generations Buck Martinez and Pat Tabler would take a guy like Horwitz under their wing... you aren't a power hitter Spencer. Cut down the swing. Hit .290 with 11 homers. Can't do it anymore thought. So guys like Spencer hit .260 with 20+ homers instead, and then they hit

I'm not suggesting that the coach's 'broke' Vlad. I said they could not quickly identify the problem and maybe another coaching staff could have.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/LAA/2007.shtml 2007 Angles scored 820 runs 4th in league while being almost last (124) in homeruns. Casey Kotchman, who was not a great player overall was a decent 'no power bro' first basemen that year. In 2024 teams like this don't exist anymore. Even with lessons from the greats like Don Mattingly teams can't hit .280. Guys like Spencer Horwitz can't hit .290 even. Spencer looks like his route to being a 3 WAR player is a .250 hitter with 20 homers, walks and good 1b/average 2b defense. That's kind of what he is on pace for. The John Olerud (high end) latter day Joe Mauer (lower end) Kieth Hernandez, Moneyball Hatteburg (2002 only) type player no longer exists. Mathematically they'd still work, but something about the pitching patterns and defense alignments have crushed this kind of player.

What was his swing like in 2017/18 and 2021 ? If swing fix by Jays coaching staff solved it, I don't think that is really a good thing for them. Like Vlad has been an all time great in the minors and in 2021, so are we saying that he performed way below talent level for for 4 calendar years (19/20/22 and 23) and all that was needed to fix it was a mechanics adjustment... but no one on Jays coaching staff could find if for years at a time? So are there like coaching staffs who find this stuff in a few weeks instead of years? And if so should Jays be looking to form such a coaching staff?

It's not really a 'flat earth' kind of thing though... it's a disagreement about human nature. Not really Occam's razor either. Nothing complicated about a Rogers Exec taking Chris Bassitt aside. I guess it's 'a bit' more complicated than a Rogers executive not doing that. But not 'way' more complicated. Compare to say 9-11 conspiracy which involves hiring fake guys to kill themselves on the planes, then hiring another big crew to put dynamite in the buildings... I assume that is at least a 50 person job, with dynamite trucks having to be there, and dynamite guys going up and down without being noticed through most of summer 2001. Probably years to plan the conspiracy, months to execute. This is like you guys differ on how people act. One group thinks people are sneaky, and bad, especially the corporates. The other group thinks that is ridiculous. I do admit it is a 'bit' more complicated for the Rogers guy to phone, or take a walk down to Bassitt's locker... but it's not massive complexity. Like not unrealistic complexity.

Rutschman hit a 347 9/30 homer to win that game. What will have to happen eventually is some game where the opponent, late in the game, hits a like 29/30 fly ball for an out to left and the Orioles hit a 9/30 to right to win it. So we had part of it that game, but no Jays hit a fly ball to left that would have been a homer in other parks. fyi the a/b thing is from statscast where they tell how many parks the fly ball would have been a homer in. So Rutschman's was a 9/30, plus hit in the exact right spot... lol

I haven't really been following this Bassitt thing but Phil Donahue died a couple days ago. Apparently he got fired by MSNBC for being against the Iraq war in 2003. Broadcasters are leaving news networks all the time from both right and left (Shepard and Tucker Carlson left from Fox from different directions). No idea anymore about Canadian media, but my understanding is the state broadcasting Corporation is controlling the message very well. So why I ask, is it unreasonable for posters on the esteemed BJMB not to think there is pressure by those who own media on the people who appear on the media shows, to say a message that is positive to the owners of the media?

Probably just random but anecdotally it seems like the right handed road hitters are purposely avoiding pulling the ball there. I honestly thought some nightmare scenario where Vlad Guerrero Jr. hit's a 415 foot fly ball out to left then Cowser or Cedrics or someone hits a 328 foot pop fly homer to right to win a game would have happened by now... don't really remember it though.

Sortof. Lots of left handers love Fenway though (Boggs, Greenwell, Ortiz, Mo Vaughn, Devers) because the 345 oppo pop fly's are good stuff. The Baltimore freak park is probably a good example too. lol. Baltimore is stacking with left handers.

My intuition is they are right in a hypthetical toy example way... but in a practical sense the non-linearity isn't too strong.

Hypothetically if a pitching staff struck out everyone, walked no one. Gave up no contact except for once a game.... Gave up 1 100 mph flyball to centerfield at 27 degrees. What would be the park factor of that team? Let's say their home park was one of these parks where the ball didn't travel. They would never give up a run at home, and for this pitching staff ERA at home = 0.00 ERA on road = 0.50 (sometimes that one flyball would leave sometimes not) Are JimCanuck and Cornorp right afterall?

Is there research on this? Intuitively it doesn't feel like there is a 'park' non-linearity in baseball. One hand that could be feasible. There is this sort of theory that some players (like Cavan Biggio) have more of a hit when offensive environment changes than others. On the other hand maybe that is all just random. I don't know, maybe some players could get hit more by park than others. On the other hand it doesn't 'feel' like that happens. Current Mariners pitchers have good numbers, but nothing mind blowing like if there was a park non-linearity. Current Mariners hitters suck, but many (France, J-Rod) did fine in that park other years. Park non-linearity should hit them other years? Or do you think skills decay and the drop is more in Seattle?

Seems that is not a park factor just an analysis of batted ball outcomes, which is part of the park factor obviously but not all of it. Elevation, humidity, visibility and weather could lead to less hard contact right. So if I understand it above is looking at how park affects batted balls, but not overall offense/pitching.

Hypothetically if the Mariners have ass hitters and awesome pitchers the numbers might work out something like below? Mariners score 300 runs at home, give up 300 runs at home Mariners score 340 runs at home, give up 340 runs at home Park Factor = (300+300)/(340+340) = 0.88 How does the fact Mariners have strong pitching staff and ass hitters change the park factor? Park factor is calculated on the Ratio. Which doesn't change because of quality of hitters Say the opposite. Mariners score and give up 450 runs at home, and 510 on road. Legendary hitting, sucking pitching Calculation is park factor = (450+450)/(510+510) = 0.88

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Batting_park_factor#:~:text=Batting%20Park%20Factor%2C%20also%20simply,general%20usage%20in%20recent%20years. It seems to be a simple formula that obviously involves road contests? Are you saying what is up there now is different than what was there on Wikipedia a few months ago? Could be the case with Wikipedia. But as far as I know park factors have always been done with a trivially simple formula. Maybe there is some complicated version I am not aware of. Not sure.

How could a park factor not include road contests?