Olerud363

People have been comparing this year to 2017. In 2017 Bo and Vlad were hitting a combined .340 in Lansing and Dunnedin. That put them 2 years away. Jansen was 1 year away. Hernandez appeared that year. Nimmala and Bonilla are now both in FCL hitting a combined .200 though Bonilla is now up to 5-27 bb-k or so... but the two, even if destined to make it, are much farther away then Bo/Vlad were in 2017. Essentially there was only 1 year without hope (2018). 2017 was like this year. 2019 the new generation had arrived, 2020 winning record. Spencer Horwitz will be here soon though

I do recommend anyone who is curious what forever-joy is like, take a look at Orioles Hangout. You can't receive the Joy, as a Blue Fan you can only suffer for next decade or two, but if intellectually curious what joy is like visit the Orioles Hangout at the link Omar provided https://forum.orioleshangout.com/topic/52805-monday-63-toronto/

? I hate the Orioles. People I hate love the Orioles. Criminals I know love the Orioles. The people who made me the angry unhinged person I am today love the Orioles. These horrible people have forever-joy. The Orioles fans have a baseball team that will start drawing 3 million a year and they will be propelled to a generational run. I hate it. It is reality but I dislike this reality. Why would I want to go to Orioles hangout a place of forever joy, but joy that is not mine. I love the Blue Jays, very sad to me what has happened. Fire Shapiro!

Are Orioles fans quiet? I assume that by the end of the year Baltimore, with a second 100ish win season in a row will beat Toronto in attendance by a bit (still behind right now) I figure this year Orioles will end at 2.5 million Toronto 2.3 or something After that it will be Orioles 3 million Toronto 1.5 million forever pretty much (Orioles have a forever dynasty of joy).

but nobody is worth anything... Kikuchi - wild, not consistent Guassman - old, expensive lost a bit Vlad - 'no power bro' (barely got that one over the centerfield fence tonight) Bo - .240 hitter with no defense Jansen - lots of injuries, Yimi - whatever This is a team of sadness, a team of nothing, a team of no hope, no assets, no future. The only option is to hire a genius 32 year old GM and go the Orioles way... a) Fire Shapiro win 35 games a year for 6 years c) win 110 games for generations after that Problem is it is very hard to tell who is a genius and who is not, because 110 IQers with good social skills can fool you.

I sold my NVIDIA stock in 2017 because f***er-f***ers (including the Coastal elite newpapers) told me Trump was going to crash the stock market with his trade policies. So dumb. I bought my NVIDIA stock very early, so got enough to sit on my ass and post on BJMB for a few months, but not enough to become a multi-millionaire like most of the other board members. I regret this. And hate Paul Krugman and other liberal *******s for lying to me. However my friends tell me I should have just sold half. Sell half. That's what the genius traders on BJMB probably do. In and out. Sell half. Buy back in. And they are millionaires. I don't care that much. Money can't buy happiness. Only winning arguments with millionaire morons on BJMB can. The moral of the story is there are 3 options. Keep NVIDIA. Sell all NVIDIA. Sell half of NVIDIA. And with the 2024 Blue Jays there is also 3 options 1. Sell 2. Buy 3. Hold and call up Spencer so we have two 3 WAR .290 11 77 'no power bro' 1st basemen (which is better than one and Justin Turner).

Negative Nancies and the Positive Petes are both right in a way. Positive Petes are right because this team is better than it has looked has far and could easily win 86 games, sneak into WC3 then anything can happen. They have talent that is good sometimes, and no reason this talent couldn't be good for 3 weeks in October. Negative Nancies are right because even if this team plays better and finds themselves with 84 wins last Thursday of the season, and in a weird 5 way WC3 race, all that means is they have a 20% chance of making the playoffs (although it will seem like way more because being tied for WC3 seems awesome).

People are just totally misunderstanding what I am saying about Bonilla and Nimmala. It's not that they have a 0% chance of making it, it's that they have greatly reduced their chances of making it quick and being a star. Players who become stars usually are already different their first two months. We all want high impact talent and other than potentially Barger I would say every player in the system has sort of set ceilings. Don't you all agree? I think Barger has a really high ceiling still because of both his stats, and what I have heard about his arm strength and bat speed. He's like the only guy you could dream on, and he might be a complete failure because of footwork and spend his prime in Korea like Eric Thames did.

The last post was 6 lines on a PC + some stats for Schneider, Jansen, and the up and comer Bonilla (in terms of k/bb one is not like the other). You may be thinking of sentences. It is possible to have mulitple sentences on a line. Most of my post are about 4-7 lines of text on a desktop. Probably 30-40 lines of text on your phones, especially for anyone over 40 who uses the big text. Point is a major board problem is completely different ability to absorb information for the desktop users vs the phone users. The latter are probably on average much dumber (not genetics just phone induced brain damage) but much richer because of the 'buy NVIDIA' button on the phone (though they do have to sell it at some point).

Since people don't have the attention span to read 3 sentences (sentences look long on phone) I was just curious how the day traders here make so much money. I assume there is a button on the phone that one can use to buy NVIDIA with one click. Not sure how you sell it. Update. Bonilla on fire. Up to .324 on base percentage. Got another walk this week. Schneider at 18 in Rookie Ball - 36 walks 36 ks Jansen at 18 in Rookie Ball - 20 walks 10 ks Bonilla at 18 in Rookie Ball - 3 walks 29 ks lol. He probably will make it, but given how much struggles even our guys who dominate rookie ball have. Given that Orelvis 'popup' Martinez didn't start to hit all those popups until aa it will be a helluva long road. It will still probably take Bonilla 8 years to reach the majors and he will have a career like Moises Sierra or something... It'll be great. Can't wait until 2031.

How do you imbecile trading bros make your millions on the NVIDIA? There must be a buy NVIDIA button on your phones. One click.

4 lines. lol. Probably looks like a book to you morons on your phones. Hope you don't get tired scrolling. Yo Bro! k-rate sucks.

Some of the people giving me a hard time about this actually do understand the concept. Extreme k-rate, even low sample size, is meaningful. A couple people were half jokingly thinking maybe Jackson Holliday could bust, no one was even joking about it before his 10 game stint in the majors. 18 ks in 10 games 2-18 k/bb. Extreme enough it knocks off a bit off his career expectations. It does increase the chance he could bust by a bit (pretty low still obviously). Anyway point is if you read the posts about Jackson Holliday people kind of get this, the terrible k rate in 40 games puts players in a different group and lowers expectations already.

Davis Schneider in rookie ball had a 36-36 bb/k, Bonilla is 2-27 Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball had a 21-10 bb/k in rookie ball Bonilla is 2-27 Danny Jansen 18 in rookie ball struck out 10 times in 36 games, Nimmala 43 times in 29 games Your bringing up players who were the opposite of Bonilla and Nimalla Batting average in 40 games is not reliable. k/bb is the worrisome thing and starts to get reliable pretty quick.

Unfair. None of my posts are that long it is only an illusion created by the phone. I don't use phones and I am sure I am in the minority but a few sentences strung together look horrible on the phone. I use the computer. So many f***ing morons these days have no idea how to use a computer, and their brains are fried looking at the 3 inch screen all day, which is why reading comprehension and stats are gone.

Vladdy is close to going on a homerun tear. He's close. Close. Just missed that one. Close. He's close. I also find it funny that despite 'no power bro', and his defense and baserunning still being terrible Vladdy is on pace for 3 WAR. A 1b men who could hit .290, walk, hit 10 homers, play defense, run the bases well, is probably 5 WAR in this offensive environment. That player rarely exists anymore, but used to, Keith Hernandez, Grace, Olerud, Scott Hatteburg for 1 year.

So who are the players that struggled at 18, struggled to the point they couldn't even stick in low A and became impact talent? I can't remember a single player in Blue Jays history who did this. Arguably Shawn Green and Alex Rios are two, but even they hit like .270 with good k rates at 18, they just didn't show power (yet). Derek Jeter at first glance. However that is only a product of the funny way age is measured. When Jeter was 3 months older than Nimalla, in his second season, the year he turned 19, he was doing fine in low A. Jeter was 18 years 9 months, Nimalla 18 years 6 months. Of course across the entire history of baseball you can find a few players who turned it around. I mean it's only been 2 months, Nimalla could finish strong, who knows. Just that if you look at history, even the history of this franchise, D.J. Davis, Kevin Ahrens, Miguel Negron, the like 15-20 overall draft picks, and compare them to Travis Snider, Brett Lawrie, Bo Bichette, you could already see the differences after 2 months in A-ball. I remember when Jays traded Brett Wallace for Anthony Gose there was huge debate on the old board. And the Gose haters were right because they intuitively knew just glancing at his stats, that even though he was just a teenager, the shape of his numbers showed that he couldn't hit and wouldn't.

I am sure new posters are tired of seeing fights between old time posters, which there are a lot of lately, and I guess I am making the problem worse. However just some context. After 2021, starting around May of 2022 LTBF claimed literally at least 100 times that Vlad was on the verge of returning to his 2021 form. It just became a joke "He's close", "He's almost there", "He's close". I am sure to cover his ass LTBF will claim he just meant Vlad was going to return to hitting .275 or something. Really? Does anybody think that LTFB meant Vlad was going to return to his 2022-2024 form? Which he was already at. As Vlad marched through 2022 to now, hitting OK the whole time, LTBF constantly told us Vlad was 'close'. 'Close'. CLose to what? Close to returning to being 2021 Vlad. So close. He's close. He's close. Just missed that one. Real close. Bo sucks. Bo just grounded into a double play. Bo sucks. Vlad's close. Tango is wrong. Tango is wrong. Tango is here? On this board? He is wrong. Bo would have 70 errors if it wasn't for Vlad. OK. Just to be precise, LTBF did not say the last one. Everything else he said, and he was wrong on. Vlad was never close to returning to his 2021 form and never will. Nimalla and Bonilla have a much longer road ahead as it should be obvious they aren't storming through the minors in 3 years. That ship has sailed. Reality. Sucks.

Give us an example of guys who hit like Nimmala and Bonilla at 18 with simillar k/bb and became stars? Or even made it to the majors. I am sure you can find some because nothing is black and white, but you are a statistically illiterate moron. If you think that extreme performances in the first 200 at bats of a guys career mean nothing then... well nothing I can do.... Your history is out there for everyone to see. For 3 years you kept telling us Vlad was close. He's close. He's almost there. He's close. Out of the at least 100 times you told us Vlad was close, exactly 0 times did he return to hitting as his minor league numbers suggested he could. You were completely wrong, but since data doesn't matter to you there is nothing I can do. 'Vlad's close'! Vlad hit's .290 with a .400 slugging percentage LTBF - told you he was gonna come back, hitting .290 again. Told you he was close. OK. So f*** you. Nimalla is awesome. Bonilla is awesome. They are hitting .200 combined with a terrible k rate. Neither can stick in low A Dunnedin (Bonilla can't even get there). But LTBF has looked at their swings... stats don't matter.

I know people will say this is on the players, but if so maybe it is like the Jays aren't getting the players that can can absorb all the info needed to succeed in 2024. Sort of a debate around like should they put away the ipads and go old school? Too much data analytics? Or not enough ? Or maybe other teams have some sort of screening to find the players that can take in all the info and are coachable.

Vlad and Bo both had their best season in 2021. Their ability to get nice MLB seasons out of late 20s players has been much worse last couple of years. Like they are not able to get the same types of seasons out of Varsho and Chapman that they were out of Semien and Teoscar. Like the ability to have any positive suprises in the majors or minors is gone.

Long peak guy. Good enough to get to MLB early. Good enough to stay late. Video game stats in the A ball. Short peak guy. Takes a while to get to MLB not good enough to play much after 30. Holds his own in the A ball. Not a guy. Hit's .200 with lots of strike outs in the A ball. May look good here and there especially if repeating a level, but gets stuck in double a. There are exceptions to the rule

It's a tough league for sure. Impact talent would still dominate it at 18 or 19. Major league players would hold their own. Someone brought up Paul Dejong the other day, which wouldn't be a bad outcome in some ways. However Paul Dejong is a 'short peak' guy. If Nimalla is Paul Degong it will take him forever to get here and he'll have a decent 2031, then hit his decline just when he hits arb. The long peak guys f***ing destroy these leagues, do two levels a year, and you get them from age 22 through 30. Long peak guys. that's what you need.

https://www.milb.com/player/enmanuel-bonilla-806962 Emanuel Bonilla hitting .243 .286 .414 with a 2 to 23 bb/k in a super low league he should be dominating. This is like the guys that play at 9:00 am before the real low level A league team plays. He sucks. Nimilla and Bonilla have both had horrible seasons and yes they are young, but the odds are against them now. I'm sort of double posting but the other guy mentioned in his thread we have no international players with fire, like Julio-Rod or Sota except for Vlad. Does anyone have any concept of what those 3 did at 18 ? Really good players reach A+ at 18 hitting .345 with awesome k/bb. Players that are destined to make the majors hold their own at these leagues. You know what Bonilla and Nimalla's future is? Go to New Hampshire watch the Beltre and De'Jesus guy. Nimmilla and Bonilla will be lucky if they get that far.

https://www.milb.com/player/enmanuel-bonilla-806962 His name is Bonilla. Emanuel Bonilla. He is 18. He is international. He wasn't even allowed to try the low A league that the Indian guy sucked at but was put at some even lower league that isn't even A. He started off "hot" after 6 games looking good and everyone thought he might not suck but his k/bb was 0 to 8 even when hitting .400 the first 6 games. However the 0 / 8 bb/k after 5 games was a pretty good hint he sucks, and he does suck in some low, super low a league that he should be dominating even at 18. They all suck. Every single one of them, whether 18 or 27, no matter what color.