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Olerud363

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Everything posted by Olerud363

  1. Olerud363
    It is a bit random year to year but hitter quality won't change the park factor. The simplest versions of park factor aren't even a model. Just divsion (team and opponent runs at home)/(team and opponent runs on road).
  2. Olerud363
    All the west coast parks near the Ocean have always had low park factors haven't they? Safeco, Petco, Candlestick, replacement Candlestick, Oakland Mauseleum, Dodger Stadium. Anaheim maybe is OK, but it is a bit inland by Disney land in the dryer weather... Safeco you can smell the Ocean and outside buy the fish just caught from ocean.
  3. Olerud363
    All the west coast parks near the Ocean have always had low park factors haven't they? Safeco, Petco, Candlestick, replacement Candlestick, Oakland Mauseleum, Dodger Stadium. Anaheim maybe is OK, but I went there and it is a bit inland by Disney land in the dryer weather... I went to Safeco and you can smell the Ocean and outside buy the fish just caught from ocean.
  4. Olerud363
    But park factor only effected if ass hitter ass only at home. If Mariners hit .220 .290 .360 at home, and Mariners hit .210 .270 .330 on road, Mariners ass but park factor high.
  5. Olerud363
    Park factor is calculated based on home and road stats for team and opponent for all the teams games, so would not change based on quality of hitter. Like 2022 Rocky's were overall mediocre but park factor was still sky high. 2023 Mariners were an OK hitting team but park factor was low (not as low as this year). One year park factor could have a bit of random randomness, or causal randomness. The latter like the Mariners had e-coli in their post game spread at the beginning of a homestand, or all caught Covid on the flight back from a road trip, thus caused a series of 10 home games to be low scoring for them. Or maybe weather can effect it, but that would effect both teams.
  6. Olerud363
    Park is really extreme. Their hitting is bad, pitching is good, but not as extreme as it looks from the raw stats. Park factor is like 88 this year. Which is really low. Worst hitters park in baseball by far this year.
  7. Olerud363
    Would have given them 3 extra wins. And maybe a different wild card opponent. If his performance since May 1st was real and long term, it could make a difference in a close playoff series. One bomb. A couple of walks changes that series. However I think the long term level of performance is more relevant for playoff games, where he will be heavily scouted. Like if the hot streak is an adjustment, but there is a re-adjustment that the pitchers will make soon enough, that re-adjustment would likely be made for the heavily game-prepped playoff games. If the hot streak isn't a 'hot streak' but a more long term fixed and he his headed for a remarkable 5 year stretch (sadly much of it for the Red Sox)... then it would make a difference for a playoff game in a statistical sense.
  8. Olerud363
    One thing I've always pointed out in the Vlad discussions is that his performances as an 18, 19 and 22 year old were in the 99.99th percentile of all of Major League history in terms of hitting. So now we have another stretch which is in the 99.999th percentile. So the frustration has always been that unlike Pujols say, who was in the 99.99th percentile for 10 years, Vlad switched between months of a 99.99th percentile guy, and a much lower level.
  9. Olerud363
    Like Howritz, if he is actually OK defensively, isn't wasted at first, because he can still contribute there. Variation between best and worst first base defense is a WAR or 2.
  10. Olerud363
    Who knows for sure, but based on fangraphs numbers so far the Jays might be 2 wins better with Horwitz at first and Vlad at DH. I can't remember exactly how the fangraphs d-number translates to wins, but right now Vlad is like a -20 per 162 games and Horwitz close to 0. So Horwitz at DH (-15) and Vlad at first (-20) is minus 35, but say Horwitz at first (-5) and Vlad at DH (-15) is only -20. And that could be a bit better if Howritz could score near 0 at first.
  11. Olerud363
    If he is getting deferrals you have to give him more. Like if Soto is worth 12 400, that would be 12 700 with deferrals... like I think you can't really game the system by giving Soto 12 400 with deferrals as that contract is not one the union, the agent or the player would want. As a side note I still am curious if Dodgers could theoretically get in trouble with the Ohtani contract if interest rates go down. Like at 5/% maybe his 10 700 is 10 450 in present day value (or close). Now if there is a financial crisis and interest rates go way down, and all of a sudden the contract is worth 600 million in current day values? Does that mean they have to now apply 60 million to their payroll and put 60 million a way for future payment? Is the calculation done year to year? I didn't think so because I thought the team has to put the current years contract into a fund for future payment... which means if interest rates change the current value changes.
  12. Olerud363
    I guess in terms of salary he is a disappointment at 18 million a year. People have fond memories of Frank Catalanotto who was also a 110 wRC+ guy in his time here, but seem to hate any modern age low power high average guys... Frank C. only earned 2 million a year though, so fair enough to call Yoshida a disappointment for his salary.
  13. Olerud363
    Joey Loperfido! 0 walks 9 ks So I checked Derek Fisher stats. He reminds me of Derek Fisher superficially. lol. They are the same. Same minor league stats. Same major league stats. Same height. Same weight. Same looking awful when they arrive to Blue Jay land. Hopefully Loperfido doesn't get hit in the face with a ball leading to a 14 run inning (I think something close to that actually happened in an empty Yankee Stadium). Derek Fisher retired I guess after no longer even being able to hit triple a pitching. Hopefully Loperfido does better. Early returns not good.
  14. Olerud363
    According to fangraphs Miguel Cabrera improved from about -15 to -5 in the fangraphs system when moving back over to 3rd for 2012 and 2013 to make room for Prince Fielder.
  15. Olerud363
    No one, as far as I know, is claiming that coaching can make a difference in a couple of weeks. It's more a long term thing on a scale of months and years. Why do our beloved Blue Jays suck so much? Coaching? Scouting? Random chance? Something else? Open to well thought out opinions in any direction. Interesting that Atlanta which scored 950 runs last year might not score 700 this year... do their coach's suck now. Something else is at play? Matt Olson is as frustrating as our hero, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Injuries? 11-dimensional chess with adjustments made by pitchers, then by Olson, then by Pitchers? I guess good coaching can help smooth out the latter.
  16. Olerud363
    Don't disagree with any of that, it was just kind of funny looking at how bad a baserunner and outfielder Ramirez was. A lot of people seem to be now thinking that Vlad would not be any worse and may actually be better at another position. Kind of makes sense because of his arm, like he might be able to pull off some difficult plays at third and wouldn't be a total disaster there. Looks that way at least in limited time he has played there...
  17. Olerud363
    Also kind of funny that Ramirez according to fangraphs managed to put up 3 WAR a year from 2004-2006 playing full time and hitting .300 .400 .600 or so... So for all those who say Vlad can't be a 3 WAR player hitting like he did in 2021... it's been done apparently. So this contract is going to be real fun... Can see the scenario where he hit's like a maniac for the next 14 months, and then demands a 12 year 600 million contract (on account of being a .330 .400 .600 hitter) but is 3.5 WAR according to fangraphs...
  18. Olerud363
    Guerrero Jr./Cabrera/Manny Ramirez through age 25... Who is best? Closer than you would think and if Guerrero finishes strong it may go Cabrera/Guerrero/Ramirez for baseball reference WAR through age 25 and Cabrera may be ahead 22-20 or something... 1. The fangraphs is crashing my desktop, so I am now going to consider it deviant and ignore it. The very bad defense score for Vlad must be ******** and the baseball reference true. 2. If Vlad finishes hot he will be right back on track as generational 80 grade hitter with Ramirez and Cabrera (who brought it to the next level between 26 and 33). Also note he looked horrible his last at bat yesterday and I can also see him looking bad for 2 months again so who knows... but... if he finishes hot back to generation hitter with age 25 comparablies = Ramirez and Cabrera (normalize number for weird offensive levels Vlad plays with).
  19. Olerud363
    On second thought the above is really stupid on my part. Obviously Trout vs. Cabrerra... Juan Gonzales MVP. George Bell MVP. Abreu in the shortened season. No idea actually why the middle fielder occasionally gets the MVP vs the slugger... but often doesn't. Like why Altuve? Why Ichiro when the same guys will vote for Justin Morneau way lower WAR than 2002 Giambi a few years later?? I think no one has any idea what these MVP voters will do with... Bobby Witt .350 30 110 11.2 WAR vs Judge .320 60 150 11.0 WAR
  20. Olerud363
    Witt has more WAR. Sometimes the up the middle player wins over the great hitter (Ichiro over Giambi 2001, Altuve over Judge 2017) This is an extreme one with the numbers off the chart. If current rates hold you have a .345 hitter with 90 extra base hits, 225 hits, and a +20-25 at shortstop vs a .320 .450 .700 hitter Witt has more fWAR currently. I would say historically the middle infielder wins if fWAR is close, but maybe hitting .320 .450 700 with 60 homeruns messes up the internal thought process. Like if it was Witt at .320 25 100 and Judge at .300 50 135 and the ratio of WAR was the same (Witt ahead slightly) Witt would win no problem But even though the WAR ratio is the same the extreme numbers hit the human voting brain differently. Same reason why Vlad _may_ get a 35 million dollar arb award if he comes in at .325 32 105. He will be "ahead" of where Soto was last year (.270 35 110) and still have the big 2021 on the record... Soto got 31.
  21. Olerud363
    Just stat scouting not many of the big power guys make it. Connor Griffin, older guy obviously, Brandon Wood from way back.... Kelenic even? Josh Phelps? I'm picking random guys from all over the place. Phelps actually started without power. Just as a stat-scouter of many years seems you hear a lot of stories of the big power guy with 150 ks in 120 games and 29 homers and then they don't make it. The great hitters hit .320 with 9 homers as teenagers... nothing is black and white though.
  22. Olerud363
    And Orelvis really struggled when exposed to more advanced pitching. Not a lot of players with this profile teenage power hitters who hit .220 and strike-out 1.3 times a game... a) just a rare bird the coach's know this isn't the right way to start off so most young hitter are encouraged to develop as a hitter, so you get guys from Trout, to EE, to Danny Jansen, to Teoscar, to Vlad, hitters of all skills who are coached in such a way they hit .320 with 12 homers, or .280 with 8 homers, or something like that as a teenager then add the power later. I'm going on and on about his, but lots of guys add power as they advance, anecdotally it seems the guys that start with power and high k-rates aren't as successful long term.
  23. Olerud363
    I've had a lot of bad takes on this board and am probably the worst poster ever. However I think the Vlad/Gary Shefield one was a good take. After his big breakout season at 23, Shefield was pedestrian at 24 and got himself traded again. Really found it at 25 and was great for 10 years. I guess I also remember Vernon Wells who is a bit similar to Vlad in some ways. Tore through the minors, made it to the majors at 20 (albeit very late in the season), struggled (sent down because he wasn't quite the prospect Vlad was), had a great season at 24, struggled a bit, returned to his age 24 form at age 27.... got the big contract... Hope Vlad is more Gary Shefield than Vernon Wells trend wise
  24. Olerud363
    Juan Soto .310 27 77 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. .311 21 69 It depends what you think 'in the same ballpark' means, but they are getting pretty close in the triple crown stats... For Arb purposes you need to compare Vlad 21-24 with Soto 20-23. Soto got 31 coming off of a .270 35 100 season, with good on base, and a very good history, and Vlad could very well "look" better to an arbitrator by the end of this year. I don't know that for a fact but just watching the arb process it seems that advanced stats aren't as important.
  25. Olerud363
    If you pro-rate Soto 2020 his fWAR 2020-22 was 7.5/6.8/3.5 = 18 Vlad's 21-23 was 6, 3, 1 = 10 so he's at about 55-60% of Soto's fWAR but 85% of arb Salary. Even if he has a great 2025 that ratio will probably stay just about 50%. Soto is going to go about 10 fWAR with a .300 40 100 season, and Vlad would be about 5 fWAR with that season (if walks/defense/baserunnign are at his current level) So can easilly see Vlad hitting free agency with "the same" avg/hr/rbi stats but half as much fWAR. Will be interesting.
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