Olerud363

Traditional stats as in avg/hr/rbi are as good as Soto's since 2021. In Arb he has been a bit behind Soto. Soto went 8/17/23/31, Vlad so far 7/15/20. 35 isn't a stretch at all depending where he ends up. If he ends up .310 30 100 I could see him asking for that. OK. Maybe it is a stretch but not much of one. He'll ask for 30 I bet. If his numbers look flashy maybe a bit more.

It depends what the definition of ceiling is... Teoscar Hernandez had a ceiling of 4 WAR but did anybody recognize that at the time? Like in retrospect it is obvious that between Mckinney, Fischer and Teoscar that the ceiling was 4 for Teoscar and 0 for the other 2, but I remember posters comparing Mckinney to Justin Upton and calling Teoscar 'the mirage' (not the same ones). It seems obvious to me you just collect these guys and randomly one will surprise, no one knows who... so the ceiling is the best of the 5 guys you collect, which might be a couple of 4 WAR seasons from one of the players obtained.

RIght now Juan Soto is on track to out-war Vlad 10-3, but their traditional stats may end up in the same ballpark. If Vlad ends up .300 30 100 with 3.5 WAR his arb award will probably be 35 million and contract demand the same as Soto's. But his fWAR 1/3 of Soto's.

Even with the strike out rate I was trying to figure out how he is hitting under .200... a guy who hit's the ball hard usually hits for average against minor league defenses... even with sky high k rate go/ao is about 0.5. Look at the trouble Orelvis Martinez had once he saw advanced pitching and better defenses. Look at Daulton Varsho. Just can't see a guy with this kind of k rate and likely pop up rate succeeding. Of course lots of time to change things. And (not joking) with current trends in the game could probably put up 7 or 8 WAR with a .190 average, walks, power, elite defense and elite baserunning. Once the league average is .220.

He and Nimilla will hit .180 combined in 2027 but be worth 15 WAR because the league average will only be .195 by then and all WAR will be power, baserunning and defense with singles almost gone from the game. I get that Clase is small and must have some exit velocity, park factor, and hip rotation or something issue... but the guy is a young 22, 3 years older than Nimmilla. BJMB - don't diss Nimmala and his .198 average. He's just a pup, only almost 19 (18 years 10 months) Also BJMB - Clase has no chance, just turned 22 already in the majors but no real prospects despite reaching the majors already and having a .834 career minor league OPS.

And Kirk and Bo are an absolute mess at 25 after raking for 7 years... it's a crazy hard game and these guys that are starting out hitting .199 with 80 ks in their first 50 games (and that is where Nimilla is back to after a cold week or so) are starting behind and have a really tough road even if they are only 18.

I'll get torn apart on this but the weird thing is you often know like after two months of minor league games. Both international signing and high school draft picks. They show up. They hit .200 with 70 ks in 50 games and you know. They hit .300 with 30 walks and 30 ks and you know. Nothing is completely black and white, but most of the so called counter examples Davis Schneider, Jansen even Mookie Betts had good k/bb ratios. Like one guy has 30/30 k/bb and the other 10/70 at 18 and you know. Kirk/Vlad/Bo you absolutely knew after a few weeks... guy shows up hits .400 like Bo did... guy shows up hits nothing like Toman did... but they can't tell this with these young players before that for some reason.

And none of this changes his value since since June 1st because his walk rate went from 15% to 5% in the same period. Hey maybe some day he'll put it all together again, and he is having his second best season, but still a shadow of Ohtani, Soto, Judge and his 2021 self. Some may like 30/30 Vlad (30 walks 30 homers), some may like prime Yandy Diaz Vlad, the latter is a little better by math. I think most people assume that he's not really a 15% walk rate guy, or 5%, more like 10% and when he gets back there with the power it will be great... But he's fooled us before. Maybe just randomness but so weird his walk rate collapsed when the power returned... Like he's not quite an elite hitter really and when he was patient some timing thing was off... and maybe to get the timing back he has to start earlier or something so the walk rate collapses... Or maybe it is random and he will be awesome awesome going forward and sign with the Blue Jays instead of Red Sox and bring 15 more years of joy to all the boys and girls in the GTA and Rogers Sports Net broadcasting zone.

Now do April and May together... Jesus. Vlad hit .230 in April, .276 babip, .360 in May, .400 babip. Combine the two months like I have.

His batting average was the same in both cases. It was only walk rate that was different. April/May Vlad was like .290 12 homers 100 walks, June/July is like .290 36 homers 30 walks. The first is better and also sustainable. Many, many players have done that. I agree his walk rate will probably rebound and hopefully the power stays too.

What is Orioles Derangement Syndrome? Is it when you cherry pick the Oriole's mistakes to "prove" they aren't a great organization? Or is it if you worship the Orioles too much? I think in this case it is a False equivalency. Mullins was a mediocre minor leaguer (.260 .320 .420 or so) who had a great 2021, and really most years has done as his minor stats would suggest. It could have been a good move to trade him in 2022, but they didn't. Being a great organization doesn't mean you nail every move exactly, just that on average you hit it. I think with guys that breakout and you have control left, the right move is to keep them. IE EE/Bautista. Doesn't always work.

I meant he is taking way less walks compared to April/May then he has in June/July. April/May he took 13.2 walks per 100 PA, June/July it's 4.4 per 100 PA. I think he was actually a better player hitting early in the season hitting .290 .390 .420, then he is now. Power has come at the expense of a big drop in on base.

Funny thing is I remember him being on track for 4 fWAR earlier in the season when he was in Spencer Horwitz mode, now it's only 3... despite the power surge. He's been like in a weird mode for the last few weeks. Like a .270 .294 .520 hitter in July and kindof switched to power mode at some point a couple of weeks before that. I think it actually lowered his fWAR/162 Walked 32 times April and May, 8 June and July. He is weird. Other than 2021 can't put it all together. When he was patient he wasn't hitting for power. Now he is swinging hard and often it seems. Much more power but at the expense of on base. Was a better player in May. Ideally he'd get into the Juan Soto/Aaron Judge/Vlad 2021 mode where he can do both, but not there. The version of Vlad we've seen the last weeks may be the ultimate over-rated player. More like a .270 40 homer .300 on base, -2 WAR defense and base running 2 WAR guy with lots of RBIzzzzzzz.

The modern theory of defense is that a player's value should NOT change too much when they change positions. Of course there are skill sets that may make a player better at one position or another. And there is opportunity. So like short stop moves to 3rd base and value would go down if short stop is awesome (more hard plays at short stop), but value would go up if short stop sucked extreme (less hard plays to screw up). However 1b to 3b maybe Vlad's value doesn't change because he has a good arm? Like he is still negative value defense, but it doesn't crater even more at 3rd because the balls that he does get to he can make the throw.

62 if he went on steroids. It was a steroid era, not a juiced ball era as far as I know. Old Joe Carter didn't get a boost. Poor John Olerud didn't get a boost. I think if the ball was juiced you'd see everyone get a boost. Everyone on Steroids got a boost which was a lot. I think Judge is ahead of the game on conditioning, game prep, nutrition. I think his numbers would be similar in 1998 if he got to the head of the class on "conditioning". I think whatever Judge is doing now is legal (I think) and wasn't known in 1998. I'm not implying he is on steroids. In 2024 if you eat really well, go alcohol free, sleep really well, take every legal supplement known to man, go to a good sports psychologist, get a great trainer, get a great bio-mechanics guy, dedicate yourself to be your best...

https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TBA/TBA201908060.shtml August 6th 2019... Vlad OPS of .803 at age 20. Gurriel .550 slugging and becoming a star. Bo off to crazy hot start. Teoscar, Biggio and Jansen struggling a bit but working through growing pains. So happy on that day. So much joy. Joy to be a fan, and some good moments in between then and now, but no playoff wins, and now it's over. 5 short years and it ends.

Trade deadline thread so a bit off topic, but sad to be here, given where we were this time 5 years ago with Bo/Vlad/Biggio playing the Royals and Orioles in late July early August 2019... happy times. Happy times. Vlad hit two homers one night... Bo got off to a hot start. Biggio hit for cycle later in September... seemed like all was possible... and here we are...

The trend was there before the organization became bad in 1994... Barfield, Bell, Moseby were done at 27... weird. Maybe the turf. Jays throughout their existance have been horrible at developing homegrown, one team players. Compare Jays career position player WAR leaders to Royals or Mariners

Every time a young player comes up, positive, good attitude, nice guy, everyone says great things, I know in the back of my mind that someday this ******* will be a goddamn poisonous disaster demanding to leave, or washed up before 28, or organization mis-uses them, or who knows what garbage this long term (since 1994) disaster of an organization will lead the player to. Jesse Barfield, Moseby, George Bell, Joe Carter, Shawn Green, Roberto Osuna, Josh Donaldson, Josh Phelps, Eric Hinske, John Olerud. Different endings, some never meant for happiness, but happy moments that ended sad. Kind of a general statement but sad how most every player meets a sad end. Jays have never had the "Big Papi/Mariano happy retirement tour' thing. Really a reflection of how bad the organization has been since late October 1993. Vlad Guerrero Jr. will be getting that in 2041, but unfortunately with the Red Sox.

The Astros, in exchange for 3 50 win seasons are in their 10th contending season with 7 straight AL Championship appearances. I think that is a trade-off any self-respecting winner would make. I do agree that the Halladay trade did not work out. However the 2014-2016 team was seeded with moves in 2008-2009. Bautista and EE were acquired in little trades that may not have been done if Jays were "full on contending those years". We also have Teoscar Hernandez. So basically if you trade for a bunch of players right now, which given what will be traded the return will be lottery tickets and mid 20s Derek Fisher/Hernandez/EE/Bautista/Drury/Mckinley types, you'll get some Derek Fishers and Mckinley;s but also maybe some good stuff. Do you do it? Or do you stay a winner and don't do the loser trades. Or maybe you become a real winner's winner and only make the winner trades. Bautista/Hernandez/EE only, no loser Derek Fisher trades. Trump/Vance. Winners only. (Not political please do not censor. Only making point about "winner" attitudes. Trump Vance have winner attitudes and that is what I am commenting on, nothing at all politcial so do not respond with anything political, only thoughts on the winner vs. loser attitudes).

Not really scientific but there was 750 intentional walks in the American League in 1993, 500 or so in 2003, 443 in 2013 and 250 in 2023. Probably a trend. I think I read once that walking people is bad in almost every conceivable situation. Obviously sometimes it makes sense. runner on second tie game 9th inning and stuff.

It's Justin Turner's fault. Without Justin Turner and with Joc Pederson or even fat-ass Daniel V. it would be very easy If Jansen is hot give Jansen DH at bats against lefties and Kirk too sometimes so they get enough at bats to normalize their stats.

Plenty of guys don't hit anymore like mid 20s Russel Martin and Cody Bellinger and April to June 15 2024 George Springer and they don't hit anymore until they do. A quick look at the exit velocities don't show anything too alarming at first glance. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/alejandro-kirk-672386?stats=statcast-r-hitting-mlb According to 1985 Bill James Kirk is expected to start hitting again at the rate his career major league and minor league numbers suggest because any egghead writing a book from Lawrence Kansas can figure this out playing around with early spread sheet programs on the first release Mac. According to 2024 Advanced exit velocities Kirk is expected to start hitting again because his expected WOBA or whatever is .250 hitter with .375 slugging. According to Blue Jays organization we should sit his obese FAT ass.

Just checked Kirk = 1.0 fWAR. Jansen = 0.7 fWAR This is a bad organization. Sit Kirk so he doesn't get enough at bats to work his way out of slow start... look back on it 3 years from now when Kirk is 4 WAR for Milwaukee or someone and it will be obvious in retrospect.

lol. That guy/gals posts reminds me of the "I hate Aaron Hill because he has stubby legs" lady from many, many years ago... Maybe it is the same person. Same energy.