no one is giving jose 5 150. Irresponsible journalism is the cause of most of this fuss. Jose has a number he wants. He's entitled to wait. There's risk on both ends. If Jose has a great year someone will probably give him 4 100 or 5 110. The Jays will have to decide if they want to match that level of commitment. Jose and Sandoval are polar opposites. Sandoval got big years and dollars because he was young, but he does't take care of his body and his contract isn't a great one. Jose despite being old may very well keep his level of play up and earn his 4 year 90 or 100 or whatever he ends up getting. 39 no good is just the norm. Jose could be the outlier and be 39 and very good, but there's no guarantees in baseball. That's what makes it interesting.
Why do you make s*** up. This is the my exact quote from Feb 23, 2016 when Bautista was coming off a 5 win season. I would have likely given him a 4 and 100, but I clearly outlayed the risks and coming off that 5 win season there were plenty of people suggesting an extension was appropriate and even a fangraphs article suggesting he was worth a 100 mil extension.
You think anyone over 30 is going to be garbage. Giles isn't even 30 yet. If we signed him for his age 30, 31 and 32 seasons that would be 21, 22 and 23. Do we have no intentions of competing? Giles FIP has ranged from 1.34 to a career high of 3.08. A few years ago relievers like this were getting big AAVs and multiple years.
If we are talking about risk if this off season has taught us anything it is difficult to convince guys to sign here. Giles is a guy who is already here and you can gauge if he's open to staying. Getting Paxton to sign here is going to be a monumental challenge next off season. If Pearson performs fantastic it becomes a little bit easier. If he has mixed results it becomes even harder, but you can at least sell the upside. Having an anchor to your bullpen for 3 years will make the job of selling Paxton, Odorizzi or a bauer on Toronto a hell of a lot easier. I think a 3 and 39 taking him through his age 32 season is not that unreasonable. We can trade him and get prospects, but that makes the job of making significant signings in 2021 a lot harder and you push your window to 2022.