jaysblue

I get the logic you’re laying out, and I don’t disagree with the projection context you’re using. Where I differ is that I’m not treating this like Vegas or a “guy code” obligation. I’m just not interested in making bets I don’t actually believe in. With Clement, I genuinely think the under is the more likely outcome, which is why I was comfortable taking that bet. With Varsho, I don’t think the under is a realistic position for me given his track record and the type of player he is. Even if it’s technically “conceivable,” it’s not something I’d back in good faith. I’m not excited about winning anything here. It’s a message board bet, not a payday. I’d rather just stick to wagers that reflect my actual views instead of balancing things out for optics. If that means only doing one bet, that’s fine with me.

Again, it's not that I don't want to make a friendly bet with you. I actually think Varsho surpasses 100 wRC+ in 2026, so why would I bet the under? It's like the upcoming Super Bowl. I think Seattle is going to win, and you probably do as well. So if we did a friendly bet, where you took Seattle, why would I take New England if I feel like they can't win?

If Joe Mauer was a 1st ballot Hall of Fame inductee, Posey should be for sure. No questions asked.

Safe to say José Ramírez is destined for the Hall. One of the best players over the last 10 years. Wonder if he matches or surpasses Adrian Beltré for total WAR.

I didn’t avoid betting Varsho because I don’t want to bet. It’s because I genuinely think he’s very likely to be above a 100 wRC+ in 2026. If that’s my view, why would I take the under? Clement is different. I’m not very optimistic about his bat and don’t think his wRC+ clears 100. You do, which is why you took the over. That’s the bet - you’re backing an outcome you believe is realistic.

Atkins when he's in the negotiation room trying to sell Toronto's geography to American players.

A's lineup will definitely be fun to watch this season. They just need some pitching. Agreed, Bassitt would be a perfect fit and could eat up a ton of innings for them. Consider them as a potential sleeper, but the AL West will be tough.

Fair - we were actually getting along for the longest time too. Unfortunately, he just slid back into his old attacking ways for some reason. I guess Jays24 isn't enough for him 😂

Yeah, I’ve been consistent about wanting more offense - that’s not some hidden agenda. I'm not the only poster. Didn’t realize discussing offense made me public enemy no. 1, but here we are. It’s just how I evaluate the roster and the risk profile, especially in this division. Consistency isn’t the same as bad faith. And the Moncada point wasn’t “proof” of anything. It was just an example that the front office is at least considering adding another bat, which lines up with the idea that the offense could still use insulation. You can disagree with that assessment, but that doesn’t make it some setup for an “I told you so.” If the offense ends up being top-tier, awesome. That’s the best possible outcome. The discussion is about process and probabilities, not rooting for failure.

How so? I wouldn't bet the under for Varsho.

I actually think Varsho could go over 100 wRC+ in 2026 again. I wouldn't take the under lol.

Bleday is with the Reds now lol. I doubt Urias is their starting 3B heading into 2026. He's still a free agent anyways.

Where did I say I think Varsho is going to be under 100 wRC+? Haha.

What is your problem dude? We can disagree without it turning personal. That’s honestly not the intent at all. I’m not rooting for the offense to fail, and I’m definitely not trying to set up an “I told you so.” I want this team to mash and prove all of this unnecessary. The concern comes from risk assessment, not negativity. Talking about downside, regression, or thin margins isn’t the same as hoping for it and it doesn’t mean I’m itching to rip Atkins. If the offense is top-5, that’s a massive win for everyone. Offseason discussion is always going to include differing levels of optimism vs. caution. That’s kind of the point of the board. Disagreeing on roster construction doesn’t mean bad faith or ulterior motives. It just means we’re weighing the same information differently. Deep breaths, man. It’s just offseason roster talk.

You think he would get $100M+ as a free agent?

He really likes it there in Cleveland.

With the loss of Bo, some regression expected from other players like Springer & others, with Okamoto being an unknown and potentially having two dead spots in the lineup with Gimenez and Clement, trying to add more runs doesn't hurt.

I think the Moncada interest actually makes sense when you view it through a “raising the floor” lens rather than positional fit. Even with the injuries, a 117 wRC+ with an 11% walk rate is real offensive value, and that’s something this lineup could use more of, especially to avoid dead zones. It was never really about Moncada replacing someone at third base. It was about adding another competent, above-average bat who lengthens the lineup and insulates the roster against regression or missed time elsewhere. That kind of player stabilizes things over 162 games. The Okamoto signing obviously closed that door, but the fact the Jays were still monitoring Moncada suggests they’re not done thinking about offense. It reinforces the idea that they’re looking to raise the lineup’s floor - not just chase stars - and that another bat could still be in play if the right opportunity comes along. But damn, I was getting tarred and feathered for suggesting this over the last week. Seems like Atkins and the front office have been thinking the same thing.

Have you ever heard of using a toilet?

That’s fair, and I’m willing to give him some benefit of the doubt given the injuries. He did look more like himself early and late when he was healthier. An 85–95 wRC+ paired with elite defense at short and hitting ninth is absolutely playable, and 3 fWAR in that role is solid value. The concern is more about lineup construction - the Jays can’t really afford to carry too many low wRC+ bats at once, especially with Gimenez also in the mix. If one of them slips below that range, the margin gets tight pretty quickly.

It really depends on the type of season Varsho has. If he’s on and off of the IL and/or hits around .230–.240 with 20–25 home runs and a 2-3 WAR season, I don’t think his market will be as strong as you’re suggesting. As Brownie mentioned above, Harrison Bader is still available, which foreshadows what Varsho's market could be like next offseason. Unless Varsho goes out and puts together a true career year offensively and a season in the 4–5 WAR range, I don’t see the market for him being especially aggressive. That said, I’d still be open to extending him if the deal looked similar to Kirk’s extension.

Agree 100% Carlos!

I agree as well, though I’m not sure the Jays can afford to have both Clement and Gimenez as potential dead spots in the lineup. Hopefully Okamoto can help fill some of the void left by Bo’s departure, Santander rebounds, and Springer plays closer to his 2025 level. That would definitely help.

Flip flopping is what you do best!

L54 laying down common sense these last two pages! 👏