jaysblue

Polymarket for baseball works more like a stock market for game outcomes than a normal sportsbook.The price can move live during the game. So in baseball: Jays up 5-1 in the 7th: Yes shares might jump to $0.90. Bullpen gives up a 4-run inning: Yes shares might crash to $0.45. Jays retake the lead: Yes shares spike again. That’s why volatile baseball games are perfect for prediction markets. Every blown lead, bullpen meltdown, grand slam, weird managerial decision, or late comeback can create huge real-time price swings. MLB partnering with Polymarket makes weird games look more suspicious, because now every chaotic swing has a visible financial market attached to it. I hate all these sportsbooks and now prediction markets to be honest and hope there is nothing fishy going on behind the scenes, but it does raise questions.

I don’t remember baseball games being this volatile before. We’ve always had weird scores, blown leads, late comebacks, and back-and-forth games, but it feels like it’s happening way more often now. Maybe it’s just recency bias, but the number of games that feel completely unpredictable from inning to inning seems higher than I can ever remember. Leads don’t feel safe, bullpens are all over the place, and you’re seeing teams erase deficits that used to feel almost impossible to come back from. And honestly, with MLB signing its Polymarket deal back in March, it makes the optics even more suspicious. I’m not saying games are fixed, but when the league is now directly tied to prediction markets and we’re seeing this many bizarre swings, bullpen meltdowns, and chaotic late-game outcomes, fans are naturally going to start asking questions. Even if it’s all legitimate, the perception is not great. MLB announced Polymarket as its exclusive Prediction Market Exchange partner on March 19, 2026.

They were both Rule 5 picks I'm assuming is why he made the comparison. Biagini actually had success in 2016 for the Jays out of the pen, and even in 2017 showed some glimpses of promise as a starter for a brief period. I even remember on the old message board, a lot of people thought he potentially could be a solid starting pitcher. https://community.fangraphs.com/the-case-for-joe-biagini-as-a-starter/

We always had a general or other sports thread. Just not on the main page correct?

I think you’re overcomplicating what I’m saying and turning it into a claim I never made either. I never said Hoffman is incapable of succeeding in the 9th inning. He obviously can. He has the stuff to dominate in any inning, and yes, the pitch-mix adjustment and BABIP regression are real factors. I’m not dismissing that. My point is that you’re going too far in the other direction by acting like the inning/role component can basically be dismissed. It can’t. The 9th inning is not just another inning for every reliever. The pressure is different, the leash is different, the psychology is different, and with Hoffman specifically, the concern has always been how quickly things snowball when he loses command. You're completely dismissing the psychological part of the game, which absolutely exists, even if your computer can’t calculate it. That’s why the mental aspect matters. Hoffman’s issue has never been a lack of stuff. It’s that when the command goes, he can unravel in a hurry. That’s not purely a BABIP problem. That’s not purely a pitch-mix problem. That’s also a composure and role-trust problem, especially when you’re asking him to protect the final three outs. And yes, neither of us can prove causation with certainty. That’s exactly the point. You’re accusing me of building a theory, but you’re doing the same thing when you say he “likely would have enjoyed similar success” in the 9th. That’s also speculation. It may be reasonable speculation, but it’s still speculation. The difference is I’m not saying the recent success proves he can’t close. I’m saying the current setup reduces the risk of his worst traits showing up in the most damaging spot. There’s a big difference. If the argument is simply that Hoffman has looked better because his stuff, command, pitch mix, and batted-ball luck have improved, fine. I agree with that. But acting like the role itself is irrelevant is where I disagree. And honestly, if we both agree Varland closing with Hoffman/Rogers setting up is the best arrangement, then we’re not that far apart. The only real disagreement is that I’m not willing to hand-wave away the mental side of Hoffman in the 9th just because his underlying numbers have improved.

Tough to be optimistic after this recent stretch. The Jays are sitting at 42-49 and 3.5 games back of the Texas Rangers for WC3. Considering how ugly this season has been, it could be worse, but that’s not exactly saying much. They’re running out of time. Their past 10-game homestand against the Astros, Rangers, and Mets was a chance to make up ground, or at the very least keep themselves afloat. Instead, they went 3-7, which is simply unacceptable for a team supposedly trying to claw its way back into the playoff race. The goal should have been to get to the All-Star Break somewhere around .500. At this point, that looks unlikely. The “it’s still early” excuse is gone, and the injury excuse only goes so far. Every team deals with injuries. Eventually, you need results. If this team is going to have any realistic shot, they need to go on a legitimate run soon - whether that starts before the break or immediately after. They need something like 6 or 7 wins in a row, or an 8-2 stretch over 10 games, just to force their way back into the mix. Offensively, Vladdy needs to wake up, and they need Kirk to start hitting. I’m not expecting much from Springer at this point, but they can’t keep getting so little from key bats. Pitching-wise, Gausman and Bieber both need to be much better. If those two don’t stabilize things, it’s hard to see this team making any serious push. The season isn’t completely over, but they’re getting dangerously close to the point where moral victories and excuses don’t matter anymore. They need wins.

$92M for that nobody!

You’re still not really addressing the actual concern. Nobody is saying Hoffman has never had success in the 9th inning. Obviously he has. The issue is whether he’s mentally reliable enough to be trusted there over time, especially when the inning starts to get away from him. “He can go a month between meltdowns” is not the airtight defense of a closer that you seem to think it is. That’s basically the concern. Closers are not judged only by their clean stretches. They’re judged by what happens when there’s traffic, bad command, a hostile crowd, and the game is sitting on one pitch. That’s where the mental side matters. With Hoffman, the problem has never been that he lacks stuff. The stuff is clearly good enough. The problem is that when he starts unraveling, it snowballs fast. That’s not just a pitch-mix issue or a BABIP issue. That’s a composure issue. That’s a mound-presence issue. That’s a closer-role issue. And the “I’m not the manager” point is irrelevant. Nobody thinks you personally control the bullpen. When I say put him back in the 9th and prove it, I’m talking about what would actually test your claim. If the inning and role don’t matter, then he should be just as trustworthy closing games as he is pitching earlier. Also, one eventual meltdown in the 7th or 8th would not “put the narrative to bed.” It would only prove he can blow up in any inning, which nobody denied. It would not prove the mental pressure of the 9th is irrelevant. Your argument keeps coming back to “he’s had good stretches before.” Sure. But the concern was never that Hoffman is incapable of being good. The concern is that when he’s bad, he doesn’t just bend - he combusts. And when that happens in the 9th inning, it’s a completely different problem.

“He’d be killing it in any inning” is a pretty convenient claim when you’re not actually asking him to do it in the ninth inning. Pitch mix and BABIP are part of the story, sure. Nobody is denying that. But closing isn’t just “take the same pitcher and move him to the 9th.” The leverage is different, the pressure is different, and the consequences of one bad pitch are different. If the argument is that he’s fixed and it’s all just sliders and BABIP normalization, then great - put him back in the 9th and prove it. Until then, pretending the mental side of the game doesn’t exist is just box-score scouting dressed up as analysis.

Nah that had nothing to do with it 🤡

Hancock hasn't been too sharp his last three starts! Need to get to him early and win this one!

Hoffman hasn't allowed an earned run since June 6, and over 11 appearances since then he's produced a 0.79 WHIP and 15:5 K:BB in 11.1 innings while picking up one win and two holds. Hmmm I wonder what changed? 🤔

Only 2 pages of GDT? What is going on?

I don’t see why they couldn’t start Miles moving forward. The Jays’ staff has done a good job keeping pitchers healthy, and it’s not like they’re going to ride him hard down the stretch by having him throw 100 pitches every outing. They can be strategic with when and how they use him to help manage his innings. Plus, they probably want to find out whether he can be a legitimate starter for them next season. Rotation right now: Cease Gausman Yesavage Bieber Miles If Bieber is healthy the rest of the way, that’s a pretty solid rotation for the second half. And who knows - the Jays could still add another starter at the deadline. Then, once the postseason comes around, there’s a decent chance Miles isn’t even used in a short series unless it’s out of the bullpen.

Patrick Corbin for closer!

Damn only 3 pages - has to be one of the lowest activity GDT's of the season.

That would have been a free slice of Pizza Pizza back in the day!

Looks like Varland is the only reliever unavailable tonight. Rogers or Fluharty (depending on matchups) likely to close if a save situation arises.

Yeah, Vladdy, Springer, and Kirk (to a lesser extent) are the main reasons this lineup is struggling right now. If those guys were performing the way they’re supposed to, you could live with Gimenez being in the lineup every day. But when the main bats are struggling this badly, it becomes a lot harder to justify having Gimenez occupy a spot when you’re trying to squeeze out every bit of offense you can. That said, the Jays don’t really have much of a choice unless they upgrade over him via trade. And as much as I’ve missed Barger, the Jays have actually been fine offensively with corner outfielders like Pinango and Sanchez, along with Lukes as you mentioned. They’ve been able to survive without Barger more than expected.

Yeah, it happened with Cleveland last year after the deadline. They moved expiring contracts. Detroit did something similar the year before, too. Maybe this team/roster just needs a bit of a shakeup. Some new faces in the clubhouse might click, spark the group a little, and maybe they go on a run and compete for WC3. It’s obviously not working with the current group anyway. You’re not really going to miss Springer at this point. Varsho’s defensive skills have declined, and in the short term, he shouldn’t be that difficult to replace. Gausman and Bieber are a different story, because replacing those innings while still trying to contend would be tough. But maybe you get some young arms back who can step into the rotation right away and help fill the void - someone like Carmen Mlodzinski, Hunter Dobbins, Richard Fitts, etc.

Yeah, true. Gimenez is basically giving you what you’d expect offensively. The problem is that when so many of the key bats in the lineup are struggling, his lack of offense gets magnified and becomes much more of a sore spot. You can run Gimenez out there every day if you have a competent, well-balanced lineup around him. Right now, the Jays unfortunately don’t have that lol. But it’s not like they have a clear internal option who’s better, either. Unless they make a trade, he’s still the best option they have.