Regardless, this upcoming season will be an important one for Manoah. He either takes a step forward and returns close to his 2021/2022 self or he becomes the next Ricky Romero/Josh Towers. If he takes that step forward, both the Jays and Manoah benefit! If he doesn't progress and we see more diminished stuff from him, he loses even more trade value and likely becomes a DFA candidate or non-tender candidate next offseason. If Manoah shits the bed again in 2024, his value goes even lower and he could be worth nothing at all. Again, the Jays FO know more than we do, so they can make a more informed decision in regards to Manoah than we can.
His value yes is at an all-time low, but he still has some value given the 4 years of control, his $750,000 salary this season and the potential/upside he carries. So yes, a team might roll the dice on an arm like Manoah like trading a player on an expiring contract or another similar player as Manoah who has potential and needs a change of scenery. Someone like a Jarred Kelenic when he was with the Mariners or someone like Kim fit that bill.
The other issue is the relationship between both Manoah and the organization. If Manoah is still a baby, complains and has attitude issues, or if the relationship is very strained and hasn't been repaired, you likely have to move him regardless. You don't want a player like him in the clubhouse or organization. If the relationship has been mended with both the FO and players, if Manoah has humbled himself and has put in the time this offseason to work harder and to get into better shape, then I have no issue in giving Manoah a chance to bounce back in 2024.
If the Jays end up trading him, I'll trust enough in their FO that they saw something they can't fix or the relationship was too strained. I won't lose sleep over it. If they decide to keep him, I'll trust enough in their FO that they believe Manoah could bounce back and will be rooting for him!