KSaw
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Everything posted by KSaw
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Jeff Blair "Lawrie is going to be their 2nd baseman"
KSaw replied to Tuco's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
I did sigh. I wouldn't trust EE everyday at third. Bautista fine in RF? Sure but that won't continue long term. He will move to 1b and it should happen going into a season. If Melky isn't dealt, he, Rasmus and Gose should be everyday starters next year. -
Jeff Blair "Lawrie is going to be their 2nd baseman"
KSaw replied to Tuco's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
Sigh. Perhaps they're so impressed with Lind that he'll be staying, while also figuring its almost time to move Bautista to 1b. That would put E5 back at third, Lawrie at second, and an outfield with Rasmus, Melky and Gose by opening day. -
You spend a fair bit of time stating that GMs, managers, coaches and scouts are wrong. And yet they all have jobs in pro baseball. Nothing is perfect but you tend to deliver the everything is wrong message. That doesn't add up. You must think that everyone working in baseball is stupid. It's sort if like the shorter pitchers thing. The info now available on paper really does say that height doesn't matter. However, no stat explains why most pitchers are taller. It's easy to say that shorter guys don't get a shot but it's just as possible, even probable that most shorter guys suck and we are left with the best of the best.
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Telling you how it is, is hardly talking out if my ass. That said, teams really need just 1 advance scout. The number of MLB scouts needed on top of that can vary but 1 wouldn't cut it. At the trade deadline it's tough to get a look at multiple people with just 1 person.
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And of course they can't track a pitch. They can note that hard breaking balls are currently tying up a hitter who normally handles them, as an example. Then the individual's baseball IQ comes into play because he has to form an option as to why and report his opinion on whether its a glitch, a hole in the swing or just a timing thing. You don't seem to like it but MLB clubs greatly value those opinions.
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You are not arguing with me, you are arguing with 30 MLB teams. You say that they can't do exactly what they are trying to do. As I pointed out, even Billy Beane uses MLB scouts.
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And that's valid. Some of them do pound them back. That said, if its not an advance scout and is someone there to watch a potential trade target, the job is pretty simple. It's one guy to watch. And if its a relief pitcher the job is a joke but still needs to get done. Rightly or wrongly, MLB teams generally only trust their own RADAR gun too. Call it silly, and a few of you just did, but teams will at times just send a guy to use the gun all game because they don't trust the stadium gun that also ends up on the TV broadcast. All teams do this-- all of them.
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And you're missing mine. That's not what they do. They are there to evaluate the short term here and now today stuff. It's not anecdotal to time speed of actions. It's detail. How players are reacting to previous injuries, how well they are currently seeing what kinds of pitches is a matter of observing and charting and using a stop watch. It's not watching and coming back and reporting who's hot.
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I think that you're missing my point. A minor check in? I assure you that scouts are doing a ton of work during a game. The primary purpose of the scouting trip may be to check on a player's health, like you mentioned but resources would never be wasted on merely doing a simple check in. That would be a waste of resources.
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I think that perhaps you have a different idea of what MLB scouts do and what their role is. They fill in the blanks. Obviously stats and video paint much of the picture.
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Huh? What's a minor check in? If you're watching a game close up and live, you can evaluate a great deal from first step, pitch movement, hitters handling movement, quickness that could be in question due to a lingering injury, routes on fly balls, time down the first base line, distance covered and how quickly when fielding a ground ball and more. Advanced scouts evaluate in detail what is currently going on with their next opponent. All the stats in the world won't tell you that player XYZ is in a short term slump due to (fill in blank) unless you spot it. Then you can attack that weakness. No video or stats from a week or month prior will tell you how healthy player ABC, you might want to trade for, is that day. Can he help your stretch run playoff race or not? Is a flaw correctable? Is a guy moving slower than he does historically? It's big business and information is very valuable.
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So every MLB club is doing it wrong? Even Oakland and Beane have MLB scouts.
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There really isn't a ton of video for AA games and lower and even AAA video often comes with awful camera angles. There are hidden gems and hidden useful pieces in every system and you need to scout to identify them. A good scout can do something any graph can't and that's spot a talented player who has an identifiable and correctable flaw. That is a buy low player with upside (if the scout is correct). Ever wonder why MLB teams send scouts to watch players in person? I mean every MLB game has great TV exposure. There are plenty of stats too. You have to see him up close and live to identify the small mechanical things. The Dodgers scouted Buerhle in his awful Boston start a few weeks back. They've seen him pitch. They know him well. What they didnt know is whether he was performing poorly because of something slight and correctable or if he'd lost it. You need pro scouts.
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Non-Jays/MLB Discussion - Sanabia Clearly Spitballing
KSaw replied to GD's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
It would give him better grip. It's an unfair and illegal advantage. Most pitchers cheat somehow for grip but this was blatant. -
Loewen will likely be moved to Buffalo. He played for the Bisons last year too.
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McCoy, Velez and Negrych can all play the outfield, 2b and 3b. McCoy also has shortstop on his Résumé. Sierra played a fair bit of CF Last year in the spacious Vegas outfield and was fine. While he's not a great CFer, he's still young enough to get by there in spot duty. They have plenty of moving piece options.
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Head shakes. Lets call up the highest ceiling guy even if there are players more prepared to help the club win now.
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Edwin would pull spot duty in LF before ever playing 3b again.
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End of the day, it doesn't make sense to expect that he'd be a s*** hitter considering that he was drafted as a hit skill player and has demonstrated through each pro season that he is exactly as advertised. His athletic and defensive limitations have held him back. Not his bat.
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All styles of hitters are not created equal. Get a guy with tools and a quick bat and strength and you get really nice and powerful swings. You get a high ceiling and a shot at all-star production. But there is mystery. There is a decent chance at feast or famine. With a guy like Negrych, there isn't much mystery. You don't get the high ceiling but you don't often get much fall off at any level. He's up there going with pitches that are hittable and laying off bad pitches. He doesn't crush mistakes but his approach doesn't set him up to do so anyway. He's the guy picking up the chubby girl in the bar at last call. He doesn't land the solid 9 but he doesn't often go home alone.
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Because a .300 BABIP for a contact hitter who often hits balls 10-15 feet over infielders or into gaps generally doesn't hit into many outs would be low. What's his FB rate? What's his career FB rate?
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Until or unless he hits at the MLB level, the thought could cause heart attacks. I was describing the type of hitter he is. I wasn't suggesting a spot in a batting order.
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Honestly, if I had to guess Negrych numbers at the MLB level (as an everyday starter) for an average season, I'd really figure .285/.335 with 30-35 doubles and 8-10 HR. His hit skill and eye at the plate translates. The thing with him is that he has little range, average to slightly below average hands and a slightly above average arm and way below average foot speed for a middle infielder. He can hit and walk, he just can't play plus defense and that has always kept his ceiling low. Consider that he is a below average defender, whom isn't fast and who won't hit 20 HR. He is still a prototypical 2-hitter and is far better than Bonifacio.
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He's almost as bad as Bonifacio. Dead weight brothers.
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Still playing to keep all of his bonus. The organization playing him to get some of their money's worth. What a disaster.