KSaw
-
Posts
983 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Toronto Blue Jays Videos
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Top Prospects Ranking
Toronto Blue Jays Free Agent & Trade Rumors, Notes, & Tidbits
Guides & Resources
2025 Toronto Blue Jays Draft Pick Tracker
News
Forums
Blogs
Events
Store
Downloads
Gallery
Everything posted by KSaw
-
Well they are pretty much on the pace I laid out at the beginning of this thread. Actually, they are a half game ahead. They are 5 games under and will probably fall to 6 below today. I still see them at or near .500, if not a game or two over at the break. Then they do have that 10 game home stand with 4 v Houston. This still smells like a turn around to me.
-
After they acquired Ricky Henderson WAMCO all got moved down one spot.
-
Forget where you bat him for a second. Reality #1 is that the new stance, trigger and later swing is working and works v left handed pitching. The results are there and he will be playing almost everyday moving forward. Ok, that means that he'll be a hitting leaders qualifier in about 10-12 days. He will likely be 2nd or 3rd in the American League batting leaders. All-Star Game?
-
As long as Bonifacio is sitting, the infield defense is fine. And if LaRoche is at 3rd and Kawasaki is at short it is pretty good.
-
Well Reyes may be back in 3 weeks so...
-
Completely random but I saw 2 guys do this and bet on each flip. There was at least 700 flips. Longest streak was 18. The funny thing is it's not 50/50 because the coin can and will eventually land straight up and balanced upward on neither heads or tails. Also, some coins are weighted differently on each side. A US quarter will land on heads more often than tails by about 0.7% apparently.
-
I just don't see it. A little luck, sure. Maybe 1-2 games with a bad hop but being hot really means more. Ask players on a team about to play an opponent on a 7-game win streak how they feel going in. Generally they are playing not to lose, instead of to win.
-
You're right. They haven't really proven anything yet. I'm basing my opinion on a few positive factors and my years of seeing so many night and day turn arounds by so many teams that come off of just a few good games and a few players starting to click at the same time. Hope I'm right. It'll all be more fun. If they do run off 21-13 to the break as I suggest, take them seriously. Even 20-14 or 19-15 would keep them right in it. Lets just see how the next few weeks go I guess.
-
The '89 Jays were 42-45 at the break-- if anyone cares. *12-24 start *Same record today *42-45 at break *89-73 finish
-
Honestly I think that streaks have little to do with luck. I mean a lucky break here and there but I think that they are more about players playing well at the same time and it mentally affecting their confidence levels. It also gets into the heads of opponents and impacts how they play. Teams facing a hot team often try to attack weaknesses instead if playing to their own strengths. It's so much mental. You're hot, you're relaxed and focused. Winning or losing is contagious isn't a myth. It's not anecdotal either. It's just human factor.
-
I still find it almost comical that the current club is still mirroring the 1989 Blue Jays. 27-34 is a parallel record. They finished off in first with 89 wins. They began their season just as badly. It would be fun to see the pattern continue.
-
Yes I get that all results that are based on random numbers are independent. Red can hit on roulette 120x in a row. Baseball results are not based on RNGs. Health, schedule, condition of opponents and more are factors. To say that it is likely for a team to catch a winning streak because it is getting pitching, has upcoming stretches of home games and a clubhouse that is emotionally sky high is a factor based opinion and not a they are due thing at all. Nothing is ever due.
-
Yes it's built into simulations. They haven't had one yet. Do simulations not figure at least one for a club projected for as many wins as this team was?
-
But yes, they are a long shot. I just see a club that is moving in the right direction.
-
Lol perhaps. But it really is my opinion. Trust me if I thought that the sky was falling I'd state that too.
-
I merely picked a number. I could have said 7 or 6 or 8. The point was simply that streaks out of the norm occur and are factors just like hard luck losses and slumps.
-
No, you can't depend on it. Agreed. Though it does just seem to happen for all teams every year at some point. Small sample sizes provide some wacky results.
-
Here's a question. Let's just say that they carry their current high for a bit and do run off 21-13 into the ASB like I suggest. Then they start the 10-game home stand with Reyes in the lineup and have the 4 games v the Astros during the stand. Still counting them out?
-
I don't think it's as simple as that. Factor in injuries and slumps but you also have to factor in winning streaks that include some luck factor. Toss is just one 10-game winning streak at any point and then figure them for playing to value and it becomes close. Anything can happen and while it may be hard to rely on, emotional wins and a group of guys on a high can really rack up a bunch of wins fast.
-
13-8 to finish June (difficult but realistic with the bit of current swagger they have going on) 8-5 in July leading up to the ASB (very realistic with the amount of home games and the opppnents) 10-game home stand with 4 v Houston right after the break will define their chances IMO.
-
I can understand you not holding your breath. This is a team that starts JPA at catcher. I see it too. I'm just a bit more positive with the way the other pieces are starting to fall into place.
-
Honestly, I see them that close long before September but I'm also figuring on 13-8 to finish of June with the way they are looking currently.
-
I hear you but from what I'm seeing, this is a team on an upswing. Dickey and Buehrle are simply starting to look quite good and JJ looks right. That's a huge leap forward.
-
Firstly, very good source says that Reyes' personal target to return is June 27 as the Red Sox series begins. And while no one and I mean no one will attach a date to his probable return, July 9 seems to be the hush hush real target date. Now while none of that may be exact or work out as hoped, the reality is that he ought to be back before or at least by the All-Star Break. The way the club is putting things together, they ought to be at or a couple games over .500 by then. They come out of the break and start a 10-game home stand that includes 4 games with the Astros and with Reyes. I dare say buckle up because this is far from over.
-
Jeff Blair "Lawrie is going to be their 2nd baseman"
KSaw replied to Tuco's topic in Toronto Blue Jays Talk
His age and back make that a horrible idea. I'd guess that he'd miss 50+ games on the DL.